WDA Forum Project Papers 2012 on Demographic Challenges Megatrend „Global Demographic Change“ Tackling Business and Society Challenges in 2030 and beyond Masterclass Seminar by Dr. med. Hans Groth, MBA at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland Fall 2012 Table of Contents /͘/ŶƚƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶĂŶĚZĂƟŽŶĂůĞ II. Papers of the 2012 Masterclass: ϭͣ͘ĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚLJŵĞĞƚƐ/ŶƚĞƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ͞ /ŵƉĂĐƚŽĨĂĐĐĞůĞƌĂƟŶŐĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĂŐĞŝŶŐŝŶǁĞƐƚĞƌŶƐŽĐŝĞƟĞƐŽŶ ƐŽĐŝĂůƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďŝůŝƚLJĂŶĚǁĞĂůƚŚĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƟŽŶ Ϯͣ͘ĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚLJŵĞĞƚƐƚŚĞWŽǁĞƌŽĨEĂƟŽŶƐ͞ ŶŽƵƚůŽŽŬŽŶƚŚĞĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĐŚĂŶŐĞƐĂŶĚƚŚĞŐůŽďĂůƉŽǁĞƌŽĨŶĂƟŽŶƐ ϯͣ͘ĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚLJŵĞĞƚƐZĞƟƌĞŵĞŶƚŐĞ͞ KƉƟŽŶƐĨŽƌh^ƚŽƌĞŝŶǀĞŶƚǁŽƌŬƐĐŚĞŵĞƐƚŽŵĞĞƚƚŚĞ ŶĞǁĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƌĞĂůŝƟĞƐŝŶďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĂŶĚƐŽĐŝĞƚLJ 4. „Demography meets Africa“ ŶŽƵƚůŽŽŬŽŶƚŚĞĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐŽĨ^ƵďͲ^ĂŚĂƌĂŶĨƌŝĐĂƵŶƟůϮϬϱϬ ϱͣ͘ĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚLJŵĞĞƚƐ>ĂƟŶŵĞƌŝĐĂ͞ 6. „Demography meets China, Japan and South Korea“ dĂĐŬůŝŶŐƚŚĞůŽǁĨĞƌƟůŝƚLJĂŶĚƚŚĞŝŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐůŽŶŐĞǀŝƚLJƉŚĞŶŽŵĞŶŽŶ 7. „Demography meets Indonesia“ ,ŽǁƚŽĐĂƉƚƵƌĞŝƚƐŚŝĚĚĞŶƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů ϴͣ͘ĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚLJŵĞĞƚƐ^ǁŝƚnjĞƌůĂŶĚ͛ƐDŝŐƌĂƟŽŶWŽůŝĐLJĂŶĚŝƚƐ/ŵƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ͞ ϵͣ͘ĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚLJŵĞĞƚƐ,ĞĂůƚŚĐĂƌĞ/ŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚKƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐŝŶŚŝŶĂ͞ DĂŬŝŶŐƚŚĞůĞĂƉĨŽƌĨƵƌƚŚĞƌŐƌŽǁƚŚĂŶĚďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ͗ A strategic analysis for Fresenius Medical Care III. Contact Details Introduction and Rationale In 2012, I had the privilege to teach a master class at the University of St. Gallen (HSG) entitled „Megatrend Global Demographic Change: Tackling Business and Society Challenges in 2030 and beyond“ for the fourth year in a row. The concept of this class is not about giving another „old -fashioned” lecture characterized by „attaching“ st u- dents to monologues and unlimited numbers of power-point slides. Given the growing amount of easily accessible information about the impact of demographic change at the national, societal and industrial levels, this class is about interactive problem solving and outside-the-box think- ing focusing around potential future population trends and scenarios. But what is my motivation to conduct this class in a way that provides a sustainable value for the career plans of the participating students? The coming decades we will be confronted with demographic changes that history has not equipped us to manage. This forces us to focus on the future, a period of time which we are not generally accustomed to re- flect upon. This is why this matter is so intimidating and makes it all the more crucial to be permanently pre- pared for change and open to innovation and creativity. However, this will only be achievable if appropriate education/training and thus knowledge/skills can be developed in the time remaining. My response to this challenge is to provide a unique platform for moderated exchange of academic work for HSG students who want to broaden their scope of inevitable change in business, governance and society both as managers and responsible members in the communities they are living in today and in future. Although demographic change and future planning are factors which are rarely perceived as part of our every- day life, they have in fact already shaped any given nation’s history to a much greater extent than is generally imagined. For example, Switzerland’s unique demographic history already started to evolve in the 13th century when the country’s population growth and wealth was significantly influenced by the “Söldnertum” - strategy. Many further unique examples were to follow in the subsequent centuries. The latest example is the currently ongoing migration wave of skilled, educated and young (mainly) Europeans workers. Again, 22 students from 8 different nations (Brasil, Bulgaria, China, India, Italy, Lebanon, Russia and Switzer- land) and from 5 different HSG Master Programs (SIM, MBF, MIA, MSC, IMT) successfully bid for this class and represented an inspiring spectrum of diversity. The benefit for the participants was to acquire a first understanding about the social and business environment they are most likely to encounter within the 2020 - 2050 time period. As such, these students will become al- ready today sensitized to demographic challenges and encouraged to develop and hopefully execute new busi- ness and living models - models, which address the demands of individuals and societies existing in 2020-2050. These students aligned in 9 project groups and engaged in building deeper knowledge on one of the following demographic challenge topics: 1. „Demography meets Intergenerational Communication“ – Impact of accelerating demographic ageing in western societies on social sustainability and wealth distribution 2. „Demography meets The Power of Nations“ – An outlook on the demographic changes and the global power of nations 3. „Demography meets Retirement Age“ – Options for UBS to reinvent work schemes to meet the new demo- graphic realities in business and society 4. „Demography meets Africa“ – An outlook on the demographic challenges of Sub-Saharan Africa until 2050 5. „Demography meets Latin America“ 6. „Demography meets China, Japan and South Korea“ – Tackling the low fertility and the increasing longevity phenomenon 7. „Demography meets Indonesia“ – How to capture its hidden potential 8. „Demography meets Switzerland’s Migration Policy and its Implications“ 9. „Demography meets Healthcare Investment Opportunities in China“ – Making the leap for further growth and business development: A strategic analysis for Fresenius Medical Care In the following chapters you will find the corresponding papers, which were submitted by these working groups. Prior to submission all papers have been presented and vividly discussed in front of the entire group, providing in-depth exposure to the various topics and opportunities to challenge one another’s research. I am quite convinced that the papers prepared by the students will inspired you and that you will acquired new views on how our Planet Earth might develop. You will also agree with me that these students have developed a very solid understanding about the business and civil society environments in which we are most likely to live in between 2030 and 2050. Finally – and this is as well a key objective of my teaching engagement – these students are already today sen- sitized to the wide spectrum of demographic themes across the global, national, business and societal levels, a prerequisite to developing proactive and comprehensive future business models. On behalf of all who contributed to the content of this book I am more than happy to engage in any discussions with any potential reader. Dr. med. Hans Groth, MBA Guest Lecturer on „Demography and its interconnection to wealth, health and social sustainability“, University of St. Gallen (HSG) Chairman of the Board World Demographic & Ageing Forum (WDA Forum) St. Gallen, December 2012 Project Paper 1 Demography meets Intergenerational Communication Impact of accelerating demographic ageing in Western societies on social sustainability and wealth distribution submitted by Andreas Breitenmoser Course Lecturer Dr. med. Hans Groth, MBA Table of Contents I Table of Contents Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ I Table of Illustrations .................................................................................................................... II 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 2. Demographic Trends In Europe ........................................................................................... 3 2.1 Main Change Drivers .................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Major Changes ............................................................................................................. 4 2.3 Major Problems ............................................................................................................ 7 3. Intergenerational Transfers .................................................................................................. 9 3.1. Demographic Indicators ................................................................................................ 9 3.2. The Situation of Retirees ............................................................................................ 10 3.3 The Situation of the Working Population. .................................................................... 12 4. Conclusion and Outlook ..................................................................................................... 14 References ............................................................................................................................... 15 Appendix 1: Demographic Structure Of Focus States 2000 And 2050 ...................................... 18 Appendix 2: Relation Of Income And Pensions ......................................................................... 19 Appendix 3: Economic Growth (Change Of Real GDP) ............................................................. 20 Table of Illustrations II Table of Illustrations Figure 1: Life Expectancy at 65, 1980-2030 (Years). Bulgaria, Portugal, France ....................... 4 Figure 2: Population Aged 65 and Higher, 1960-2030 (Thousands) ........................................... 5 Figure 3: Old-Age Dependency Ratio 1960-2030 (%) ................................................................ 5 Figure 4: Economic Old-Age Dependency Ratio Prognosis 2010-2030 (%) ..............................