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Signature: _____________________________ ______________ Jiayun Elvin ONG Date Opposing Power: Opposition Coalition Formation in Singapore and Malaysia in Comparative Perspective By Elvin Ong Doctor of Philosophy Political Science _________________________________________ Richard Doner Advisor _________________________________________ Jennifer Gandhi Advisor _________________________________________ Adam Glynn Committee Member Accepted: _________________________________________ Lisa A. Tedesco, Ph.D. Dean of the James T. Laney School of Graduate Studies ___________________ Date Opposing Power: Opposition Coalition Formation in Singapore and Malaysia in Comparative Perspective By Elvin Ong B.B.M. Singapore Management University, 2010 B.Soc.Sc. Singapore Management University, 2010 M.Phil. University of Oxford, 2012 Advisors: Richard Doner, PhD. Jennifer Gandhi, PhD. An abstract of A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the James T. Laney School of Graduate Studies of Emory University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science 2018 Abstract Why do opposition parties form pre-electoral coalitions when competing against authoritarian regimes in unfree and unfair elections? This dissertation argues that solutions to two distinct collective action problems motivate opposition coalition formation. First, opposition parties seek to negotiate and forge non-competition agreements to avoid multiple opposition candidates competing against the dominant incumbent. Such agreements eliminate the splitting of opposition votes. Second, opposition parties seek to campaign jointly to signal unity and ideological moderation. The aim is to encourage voters to turn out and vote strategically for coalition candidate(s) no matter their partisan background, thus maximizing vote share and the probability of electoral victory against the dominant incumbent autocrat. The incentives and costs to solve these two collective action problems varies depending on the form of electoral campaigning that autocracies engage. Ceteris paribus, valence-based electoral campaigning is likely to induce bargaining over non-competition agreements only. Opposition leaders have no need to campaign jointly when voters perceive all opposition parties to be ideologically similar. Inducing cross-party strategic voting is not needed because it is not an issue. Spatial-based electoral campaigning, however, induces ideologically polarized opposition parties to form alliances with both non-competition agreements and joint coalition campaigns. Party leaders need to educate, persuade, and convince their supporters that pooling their votes through cross-party strategic voting represents their best chances of defeating the incumbent autocrat. I test this theory of opposition coalition formation through multiple research methods in Singapore and Malaysia – two most similar, durable electoral authoritarian regimes in the world. Where opposition parties are ideologically similar, as in Singapore, opposition parties imitate warring factions. Approaching elections, they primarily focus on coordinating over non- competition agreements, and make feeble attempts at jointly signaling unity. Where opposition parties are ideologically distant, as in Malaysia, the desire to expand beyond their narrow constituencies and win heterogeneous districts strongly incentivize these niche parties to create alliances with both non-competition agreements and joint coalition campaigns. In short, different forms of opposition collective action spring from a delicate assessment of the balance between the perceived costs and benefits of inter-party cooperation. Opposing Power: Opposition Coalition Formation in Singapore and Malaysia in Comparative Perspective By Elvin Ong B.B.M. Singapore Management University, 2010 B.Soc.Sc. Singapore Management University, 2010 M.Phil. University of Oxford, 2012 Advisors: Richard Doner, PhD. Jennifer Gandhi, PhD. A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the James T. Laney School of Graduate Studies of Emory University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science 2018 Acknowledgements I am tremendously grateful for the support that I have received throughout my graduate studies and the dissertation research and writing process. Different groups of people at different places have generously provided various kinds of encouragement and help. At Emory, I have benefitted from the kind and wise counsels of Richard Doner and Jennifer Gandhi. As I take tentative steps towards the beginning of my academic career, I cannot imagine having better role models. Adam Glynn very kindly agreed to be the third member of my committee and provided valuable advice just as I was struggling in unfamiliar methodological territory. Classes and extensive conversations with other faculty, specifically Dan Reiter, Danielle Jung, Andra Gillespie, Eric Reinhardt, Tom Remington, Thomas Lancaster, and Jeff Staton helped shape my worldview about the promises and limitations of the entire political science academic enterprise. Of course, I am also grateful to my fellow travelers for their companionship and the overall camaraderie in the department, particularly Kirsten Widner, Nancy Arrington, Ryan Tans, Steven Webster, Drew Wagstaff, Travis Curtice, Josh Fjelstul, Elizabeth Wiener, Xu Jian, Abigail Heller, Laura Huber, Anna Gunderson, Jane Sumner, and Grant Buckles. Specifically, I would like to thank Kirsten and Kevin for generously opening their home to me during a whirlwind visit back to Emory in the middle of dissertation research. Outside of Emory, I have had the fortune of engaging with an esteemed group of political scientists working on Southeast Asia who generously provided useful advice about the dissertation project and fieldwork. They include Tom Pepinsky, Dan Slater, Allen Hicken, Amy Liu, Eddy Malesky, Meredith Weiss, Erik Kuhonta, Lee Jones, Kai Ostwald, Bridget Welsh, Netina Tan, Terence Gomez, Harish S.P., Jacob Ricks, Diego Fossati, Lee Morgenbesser, Paul Schuler, Aries Arugay, Joel Moore, Hwok Aun Lee, Johan Saravanamuttu, Jamie Davidson, Yeow Tong Chia, Kenneth Paul Tan, Mohamed Nawab Mohamed Osman, Terence Lee, Linda Lim, and Donald Low. Other political scientists who were similarly invested in studying authoritarian regimes, but those outside of Southeast Asia, also oftentimes kindly offered useful advice over the years. They were Michael Wahman, Leonardo Arriola, Rachel Riedl, Dimitar Gueorguiev, Ian Chong, Lynette Ong, Leong Meng, Alfred Wu, and John Donaldson. Fellow graduate students in other institutions studying Southeast Asian politics provided a platform for sharing commiserations and contacts. I look forward to many more future opportunities to commiserate with Sebastian Dettman, Maryhen Jimenez Morales, Nhu Trong, Jared Bok, Walid Jumblatt Abdullah, Kay Key Teo, Lin Hongxuan, Su Jun Jie, Angela Poh, Jack Chia, Wei-Ting Yen, Harvey Cheong, Eitan Paul, Maryam Lee, Alec Nash, and Caiwei Huang. Their companionship at different times made graduate studies and dissertation research a much less lonely endeavor than I feared. Various sources helped fund both pre-prospectus fieldtrips to Cambodia, Taiwan, and Malaysia, and the actual research dissertation research in Malaysia and Singapore. There were monies from the Emory University Laney Graduate School’s Competitive Professional Development Funds, from the Southeast Asia Research Group’s (SEAREG) Pre-Dissertation Fellowship, as well as from the National University of Singapore’s Overseas Graduate Scholarship (NUS-OGS). With regards to the NUS-OGS, I must specifically extend my heartfelt thanks to Terence Lee. He was the person who initiated contact with me to ask me about my work and to encourage me to apply, even though I was past the deadline. Funds from the NUS- OGS was instrumental in financing repeated fieldtrips to Malaysia. Special mention goes to Jacob Ricks who was the key link in helping to set up the meeting at the MPSA annual conference between me and Terence. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the quiet support from my family. My parents backed me both financially and in spirit throughout the many years of graduate studies both at the University of Oxford and at Emory University. Without their comforting approval, I would never have been able to set out to do what I wanted to. Which finally brings me to Phoebe. Long distance relationships are hard. More than eight years of a long distance relationship is, to say the least, even harder. In those eight years, there was not a year where we were both in the same country for more than six months. We had to endure our fair share of spotty Skype connections, mutual bewilderment over the seemingly benign frustrations of our respective jobs,