Document of The World Bank FILE COPY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONFIDENTIAL Public Disclosure Authorized Report No 4042-TA TANZANIA Public Disclosure Authorized TRANSPORT SECTOR MEMORANDUM Public Disclosure Authorized VOLUME III January 4, 1985 Public Disclosure Authorized Eastern Africa Projects Department This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only In the performance of their offleial duties Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONFIDENTIAL TANZANIA TRANSPORT SECTOR MEMORANDUM VOLUME III1/ 1. Investments in the Transport Sector 1.1 The poor performance of the Tanzaniantransport sector and its deteriorating services could be, to a large extent, explained by declining investments in the sector. In the Second Five Year Plan (1971/72-1975/76) about 20% of total investments for the economy were allocated to the sector. During the Third Five Year Plan (1976/77-1980/81) the share of transport investment was sharply reduced to 10%; in the Fourth Five Year Plan (1981/82-1985/86) which is now being prepared, preliminary information indicates that investments-to be allocated to the sector will be about 13% of all investment planned for the economy. The share of investments for the transport sector is low in relative as well as in absolute terms. It is also low in comparison with other countries in the region with similar level of development of transport infrastructure, where a share of up to 30% is not uncommon. Although the Fourth Five Year Plan is expected to curtail major new capital investments and will serve more as a stabilization program, that does not provide sufficient explana- tion for the relatively low share of transport investments. 1.2 The Third Five Year Plan terminated on June 30, 1981. Official results and analysis of the Plan execution per sector are not yet avail- able. However, on the basis of information acquired in different minis- tries and agencies involved in the sector, fairly sufficient data can be put together, permitting a preliminary analysis of the actual investments in the transport sector. During the Plan period 1976/77-1980/81, the total amount planned for the sector was about TSh 3,612 million, of which TSh 2,985 million was planned from Government and foreign resources, while TSh 627 million was envisaged to be directly invested by parastatals in the transport sector (including Bank credits). The total investments materialized in the sector are estimated at about TSh 3,808 millicnor 5% above the planned one. A summarized comparison between planned financial targets and those achieved are presented below: 1/ TSM Volume III was prepared by D. Jovanovic, Sr. Economist and M. Konishi, Y.P. following their mission to Tanzania in November/December 1981; M. Dick, Sr. Economist prepared sections 3(b) and 4. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. -2- Transport Investment Planned Materialized (in TSh Million) (Preliminary) 1. Road Transport Industry 235 (6%) 150 (4%) 2. Roads 1,440 (40%) 1,607 (42%) 3. Ports 619 (7%) 396 (11%) 4. Railways (TRC) 582 (16%) 1,036 (27%) 5. Air Transport 736 (21%) 619 (16%) Total 3,612 (100%) 3,808 (100%) 1.3 The total actual investments in the sector -- TSh 3,808 million (US$464 million) were mainly financed from foreign resources (79%) and only 21% by local funds. Although the plan for the sector has reached total financial targets, financing of different subsectors was not according to expectations. More important physical targets have not been achieved in most of the subsectors; that is particularly evident in highways, where a major part of primary road construction (890 km) was not completed. It could be concluded, therefore, that the original projects in the plan had under-estimated costs estimates. The revised cost estimates for road construction are double the original for roads (Table 1.2). 1.4 The investments shortfall, in absolute financial terms, occurred in air transport and ports, while the highway subsector was about even; major increases occurred in TRC investments, mainly due to CIDA and FR of Germany aid. The actual investments and projects materialized in roads, TRC and ports are presented in Tables 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4. 1.5 The preparation of the new Five Year Plan (1981/82-1985/86) is not yet completed. Preliminary figures indicate, however, that about TSh 9.0 billion are planned for the transport sector. Individual programs in subsectors for ports, highways and TRC (the development program for air transport is not yet available) are presented in Tables 1.3, 1.5 and 2.2; they have not yet been approved by MPEA, and should be considered as indicative. 2. Highway Subsector (a) Road Network Maintenance and Development 2.1 Road network has been expanding rapidly, reaching 49,800 km in 1981 from 36,600 km in 1976 (Table 2.1). That has been largely due to an increase of rural roads, while the total length of primary-trunk roads remained unchanged in six years. At the end of 1981, only 2,454 km were in bituminous-paved standard, or only about 15% of the total primary and secondary network (16,700 km). 1 2.2 Actual implementation of the Third Five Year Development Plan (1976/77-1980/81) was not satisfactory; most of the-road construction included in the Plan was not completed on schedule. Only 209 km of primary -3- roads were constructed to bituminous paved standard, leaving another 890 km of roads still under construction; they are expected to be completed during the new plan (1981/82-1985/86). The actual mileage of rural roads constructed in the five year period is not available; however, the total rural road network was estimated to be increased by about 12,000 km in the period, of which IDA-financed highway projects contributed with 1,060 km (Table 2.9). 2.3 The new five-year road network Development Program (as proposed by MOW)2/ incorporates from the previous plan the completion of about 890 km of roads at bituminous paved standard; in addition, three new roads (514 km in total) are included together with 200-300 km of strengthening/ rehabilitation of Tanzam Highway (to be financed by IDA). Five bridges, with total length of 1,120 m are also included in the program -- two of them are taken over from the previous plan. Finally, about 800 km of primary roads have been proposed for studies for appropriate improvements. Overall, the proposed new program of the MOW is generally modest in physical terms -- based on completing the roads started under the previous plan; only three new road constructions are proposed, of which two roads seem to lack justification for having high priority at this stage of economic austerity in the country: Mikumi-Ifakara (121 km) and Marangu- Tarakia (63 km) roads (Table 2.2)3/. 2.4 Planning of the highway network development is the responsibility of the Planning Division (PD) of the MOW. PD has basically four main activities and consequently is divided into the following sections: highway and aerodome planning, building planning, mechanical-workshop planning, and economic anlaysis/statistics. At present there are four professional (local) staff -- three economists and one engineer, and two technicians. In regard to highway planning, PD needsimprovement -- in particular to demonstrate that the road network development program comes as a result of a comprehensive country-wide analysis of traffic flow, macro-economic priorities and inter-sectoral dependence. Some technical assistantce was provided to PD by SIDA and ODA; that ended in 1980. PD still lacks an experienced transport engineer-planner, and that will be provided under the Fifth Highway Project. In regard to highway planning, one of the major new assignments of PD is to take over responsibility for country-wide traffic counts from MOCT. 2.5 MOW's performance in road maintenance has been unsatisfactory. Only about 2,400 km of primary roads are included annually, in one way or the other, in maintenance operations (Table 2.3). Roads Division in the MOW lacks staff -- only 16 crews have been created so far throughout the country (Table 2.6). That may be only one-sixth of what would be needed for adequate road maintenance. Consequently, the road network has been deteriorating, causing substantial damage to transport services and 2/ Draft Plan 1981/82-1985/86 is not yet prepared and MOW's proposal may not be fully accepted in the planning document. 3/ The first one is parallel to a railway line and would connect the Tanzam Highway with a sugar industry outfit to Ifakara, and the second would connect MosAi with the Kenyan border, where one road already exists. -4- ultimately to the economy. Some rural roads simply "disappeared", as the attention was not provided on time. 2.6 MOW is aware that funding of road maintenance has not been adequate. The funding has been stagnating in absolute terms for four years at about TSh 123 million. No in-house analysis has been made as to deter- mine which would be the adequate amount. The amount is not only to be determined by the length of the network and different design standards of roads, but by the available crews and their capacities, which are presently quite limited. One part of the road maintenance has been and should remain, at least in the foreseeable future, to be carried out by contract. In that regard, the main problem lies in limited funds available for that purpose.