Website of the expert Community of belarus Nashe MNeNie 1 (‘Our OpiNiON’) agenCy for soCial and politiCal expert appraisal Belarusian Y e a r b o o k 2013 a survey and analysis of developments in the republic of belarus in 2013 Minsk I. P. Logvinov 2014 2 Belarusian Yearbook 2013 Compiled and edited by: Anatoly Pankovsky and Valeria Kostyugova English version translated by Mark Bence, Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Taciana Tuluš English version edited by Mark Bence, Max Nuijens Scientific reviewers and consultants: Aleksandr Feduta (Associate Professor of European Humanities University); Oleg Manaev (Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies); Andrei Vardomatski (Laboratory of Axiometrical Research NOVAK); Vladimir Dounaev (Agency for Social and Political Expert Appraisal); Alexei Pikulik (Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies); Olga Shparaga (European Humanities University, website Novaja Europa (New Europe); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center – BEROC); Miroslav Kollar (Institute for Public Affairs, Program Director of the Slovak annual Global Report). Prepress by Taciana Tuluš and Stefaniya Kalinowskaya The yearbook is published with support of The German Marshall Fund of the United States The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board. © Website of the expert community of Belarus ‘Nashe Mnenie’ ISSN 1822-4091 (nmnby.eu); Agency for Social and Political Appraisal 3 CONTENTS EDitoriAl FOrEwOrD 7 State AuthoriTiES Nikolai Burov The administration of the President: Personnel shuffling does not change anything while the trumps are still in the former hands 11 Ina Ramasheuskaya Government in a standby mode 19 Alexey Medvetsky security agencies: ‘reformers’ gain a footing in new positions 26 Andrei Porotnikov another bad year for national defense. relative successes of the military-industrial complex 33 Andrei Yahorau Parliament: at the periphery of the political process 42 Dzmitry Kuchlei local authorities: under the knife of optimization 50 Dzmitry Brukhavetski Pro-Government nGos: Do this, i do not know what 59 4 Belarusian YearBook 2013 FOrEigN POliCy Tatsiana Manionak, Anatoly Pankovsky Belarusian-russian relations: eurasian vortex 67 Dzianis Melyantsou Belarus – european union: another thaw in relations 76 Andrei Fyodarau Belarus – u. s.: The ‘cold peace’ period 84 Anna Maria Dyner Polish-Belarusian relations: let’s make money, not war 91 Aleh Bahutski Belarus – ukraine: a thaw without significant progress 96 Andrei Yeliseyeu Belarus and developing countries: looking for new forms of economic cooperation 106 SOCiETy Irina Dunaeva Third sector: sorting out relations and clarifying positions 115 Yury Chavusau Two party coalitions: new configuration of the opposition 122 Alena Artsiomenka Media: no prerequisites for development 131 5 Mikhail Doroshevich, Marina Sokolova internet Management: it is time to review priorities 138 Vladimir Dunaev Management Crisis in educational system 146 Andrei Laurukhin ‘Catching up’ improvement strategy for science and innovation 155 Natallia Vasilevich Churches in Belarus: old problems and new leaders 163 Andrej Vitushka Health Care: under the pressure of optimization 172 Maksim Zhbankou simple Movements: Belarusian culture in search of a nation 179 Barys Tasman sports: ice-Doping Time 186 Valeria Kostyugova Public opinion: The future, which is more important than the present 194 Andrei Vardamatski social mood in Belarus: Hope dies first 203 Economy Dzmitry Kruk Macroeconomic situation: Going into cyclical recession 209 6 Belarusian YearBook 2013 Alexander Mukha Currency Market and Banking system: Pressure of adverse factors 219 Uladzimir Valetka labor Market and social Policy: a trap of contracted differentials 226 Aliaksandr Autushka-Sikorski energy sector: Putting all eggs in one basket 241 Maria Akulova Foreign investments: Focusing on debt 250 Alies Sieržanovič agriculture: Dairy victory and meat collapse 258 AuthorS 265 7 EDitoriAl FOrEwOrD Belarusian Yearbook 2013 presents a comprehensive analysis of the key developments in the main sectors of the state and society. since its inception a decade ago, the Belarusian Yearbook has evolved as a crucial annual initiative of the Belarusian analytical community to compile, conceptualize and present a chronicle of Belarus’ contemporary history. The two distinctive features of the period under review are the stagnation and gradual erosion of the ‘Belarusian model.’ The trends that were first identified by the Belarusian Yearbook in 2011 continued throughout 2013, including the curtailment of the social responsibility of the state, loss of governability, and increase in the dependence on russia, decline in Belarus’ independence in external policy, deterioration of foreign trade performance and the competitiveness of Belarusian-made products. The attempts by the authorities to modernize the economy, streamline and transform the social policy were ad hoc (unsupported by a specific program of reforms) and were often simulated, i.e. their initiators had no plans to achieve any real results. The expanding deficit of resources forced the state to ‘optimize’ many sectors, which brought about cuts in finan- cing and personnel. The country spent virtually the entire year waiting for something to happen or some external force to give an impetus to further development or change the status quo. The main trends observed in the year 2013 were: • reduction in the potential of economic growth amid a lack of structural reforms; • Transfer into the cyclical recession phase, accompanied by a broadening of the foreign exchange deficit; • Crisis of governability, which is manifested in inconsistent activities of the state authorities and failure to execute orders of higher-level agencies against the backdrop of a personnel crisis; • simulation of transformation tagged as ‘optimization’ and ‘modernization’ that are interpreted as reductions in the operation and staff of the socially-oriented sectors of the economy, and simulated technical upgrading of production; 8 Belarusian YearBook 2013 • increase in the reliance on russia for decision-making in economy, foreign policy and defense in conditions of growing disparities between the Customs union troika (russia, Belarus, and kazakhstan) amid intensified eurasian integration processes; • Cautious mitigation of the relationship with the european union; • stagnation of election ratings and level of confidence in the authorities. Contributing to Belarusian Yearbook 2013 were indepen- dent analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing various think tanks, including the Belarusian institute for strategic studies (Biss), the research Center of the institute for Privatization and Management, the agency of Humanita- rian Technologies, NOVAK axiometrical research laboratory, the Belarusian analytical Workshop (Warsaw, Poland), the in- dependent institute of socio-economic and Political studies (iisePs), the Belarusian economic research and outreach Center (BEROC), the Centre for eastern studies (Warsaw, Po- land), eBelarus research Center, agency for social and Political expert appraisal, and the website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (‘Our opinion’). Valeria Kostyugova Anatoly Pankovsky 9 State authoritieS 10 Belarusian YearBook 2013 11 THE ADMiNistration OF THE PrESiDENT: PErsonnel SHuFFliNg DOES NOT CHANgE ANyTHiNg wHilE THE TruMPS ArE still iN THE forMEr HANDS Nikolai Burov Summary The year 2014 became a year of serious personnel trials for the Administration of the President (AP). The agency had faced 25% staff cuts which dramatically complicated its work due to the preservation of all previous functions. One of the reform’s results became a kind of erosion of the ‘power vertical’ which is connected with mechanical unification of local authorities’ departments responsible for different spheres (culture with ideology and youth affairs, sports with education, housing and community amenities with thee energy sector). The AP continued to become more and more isolated from the local elites. The changes of president’s assistants – chief inspectors in a region are Alexander Lukashenko’s attempts to oppose this process. Besides, the AP tends to employ young and initiative managers which are able to finish the process of transition from the socially-oriented economy to a capitalist economy of the Chinese type. trends: • Exacerbation of the governability crisis which was most vividly demonstrated during Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to the enterprise ‘Borisovdrev’ on November 8, 2013; • Further development of a serious personnel crisis which does not allow the AP to offer an elaborated and efficient transformation program for the de- facto bankrupt Belarusian model of development. Personnel decides nothing The year 2013 became a year of significant personnel decisions for the aP. The personnel issue arose in the year 2011 when the aP and the Belarusian administration model in general had demonstrated their low effectiveness during the unfol- ding crisis. at the beginning of the year 2013 the commission under the supervision by natalya Petkevich and andrey kobiakov finished 12 Belarusian YearBook 2013 its work and presented its suggestions on public administra- tion system optimization to the Head of state. according to the predictions of almost all experts and in spite of the rather interesting and serious proposals the whole reform with the optimization