Exploring Stockholm’s Spatial Capital in Relation to Sustainable Development: a quantitative study on the impact of geographical proximity on education and income Tobias Karström June 2018 Supervisor: Michael Meinild Nielsen Department of Human Geography Stockholm University SE-106 91 Stockholm / Sweden Karström, Tobias. 2018: Exploring Stockolm’s Spatial Capital in Relation to Sustainable Development: a quantitative study on the impact of geographical proximity on education and income. Advanced level: Master thesis Master’s degree in Urban and Regional Planning, 30 ECTS Supervisor: Michael Meinild Nielsen Language: English ABSTRACT The aim of this thesis was to examine if the theoretical concept of spatial capital explains the distribution of the human capital and high incomes in an urban region using Stockholm county as an empirical example. The spatial capital theory suggests that geographical proximities can explain social and economic distributions in urban regions and is divided into two sub- categories; position and situation capital where the former measures the geographical proximities to urban environments and cultural amenities and the latter measures to proximities to public transportation alternatives. The study was conducted using proximity analysis performed with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in QGIS, and stepwise multiple linear regression analysis performed in SPSS. Human capital and high incomes were chosen as dependent variables due to their relevance to sustainable development, especially in regards to urban economics becoming more knowledge-based. Spatial capital was operationalized into five variables of measuring geographical proximities; distance to central business district (CBD), distance to regional urban cores, distance to nearest amenity, distance to nearest railway, and distance to nearest bus stop. The human capital was operationalized as tertiary education and income was measured as taxable earned income. All results demonstrated statistically significant effects on the dependent variables. Proximity to central Stockholm was the strongest explanatory variable regarding the distribution of human capital and high incomes in Stockholm county. When excluding this variable, distance to railways was proven to have the strongest effect on the distributions. The conclusion was that the spatial capital theory explains that the distance to central Stockholm and distance railways are the strong predictors for how human capital and high incomes are distributed in the county. The robustness of analysis and the empirical findings’ meaning in the context of regional planning in Sweden was then presented and discussed. Key words: Spatial capital, human capital, regional planning, Stockholm county, sustainable development 2 Acknowledgement Writing this master’s thesis has been as enjoyable as frustrating and has cost me many hours of writing, rewriting, erasing, editing, reediting, and more writing. It has also cost me countless amounts of coffee to keep myself going, and a glass of wine every now and then to help me unwind. I would like to express my deepest gratitude towards my supervisor Michael M. Nielsen for all his support and constructive feedback, and also for introducing me to the art of using geographical information systems. I would also like to thank my friends and colleagues for all their advices and all their support during this spring. And finally I would like to thank Sofia, my dearest, for everything. Tobias Karström Tullinge, May 2018 3 ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgement ................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.0. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1. Aim of thesis and research questions ........................................................................................................ 6 1.2. Disposition .................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.0. Background ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1. Part I: The Swedish planning process and urban sustainability ............................................................ 7 2.1.1. The planning process ............................................................................................................................. 7 2.1.2. Regional planning in Sweden ................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.3. Contemporary issues of social segregation ........................................................................................... 9 2.2. Part II: Exploring the origin of the spatial capital theory, its background and application. ............ 10 2.2.1. An historical overview ........................................................................................................................ 10 2.2.2. The Social Logic of Space, and Space Syntax modelling ................................................................... 11 3.0. Theoretical framework: Spatial capital and human capital ...................................................................... 13 3.1. Part I: The theoretical issue of spatial capital, the meaning and the measure in the context of urban and regional planning ...................................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.1. Spatial capital as a value capture ........................................................................................................ 14 3.1.2. Spatial capital as a time-geographical concept ................................................................................... 14 3.1.3. Spatial capital as a tool for urban planning ......................................................................................... 15 3.1.4. Spatial capital as a theory on gentrification, new urbanism, and the rise of the creative class .......... 17 3.2. Part II: Social sustainability and its relationship to spatial capital ..................................................... 18 3.2.1. What is sustainable development, and social sustainability in particular? ......................................... 19 3.2.2. The link between social and human capital ........................................................................................ 20 3.3. Theoretical conclusion: The geographical link between urban sustainability .................................... 21 4.0. Methodology: quantitative design and hypothesis testing ......................................................................... 22 4.1. Research design ......................................................................................................................................... 22 4.1.1. Operationalization of theory and data used ......................................................................................... 22 4.1.2. Research object and cartographical data ............................................................................................. 24 4.2. Execution .................................................................................................................................................... 25 4.2.1. Geographical proximity analysis ......................................................................................................... 26 4.2.2. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis ....................................................................................... 26 4.2.3. Key statistical concepts and meanings ................................................................................................ 27 4.3. Hypothesis testing and methodological strengths and limitations ........................................................ 27 4.3.1. Hypotheses .......................................................................................................................................... 28 4.3.2. Ethical considerations and evaluation of sources ................................................................................ 29 5.0. Results ............................................................................................................................................................. 30 5.1. Proximity analysis and descriptive statistics .......................................................................................... 30 5.2. Standardized residuals ............................................................................................................................. 31 5.3. Summary of coefficients ........................................................................................................................... 34 5.4. Collinearity diagnostics and auto-correlation ........................................................................................ 36 5.5. Exclusion of X1: Distance to the CBD ..................................................................................................... 36 5.5. Maps over the residuals’ spatial distribution ........................................................................................