GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 74 ❚ Winter 2009 Global CO2 budget Planetary Variations and trends A vision for 2050 The future could boundarIes be bright Nine identified Cimate-change index A new tool for the Three crossed public and policymakers www.igbp.net Earth-system science for a sustainable planet Contents Global Change Issue 74 Winter 2009 regulars Cover image Maintaining the long-term environmental stability of the Holocene, some 3 Editorial experts suggest, will require respecting nine interlinked planetary boundaries that define a “safe operating space” for humanity. As the dials on the image 4 IGBP News depict, we have already overstepped three of the boundaries. 10 Global Change News cover story 8 A planet on the edge What are the key boundaries that have kept our planet’s climate stable for 11,000 years? 14 FeatuRES 14 Climate change in a nutshell Can the complexities of the Earth system be condensed down to a single number like the FTSE or Dow Jones indices? 16 A vision for our planet By 2050, everyone will have access to adequate food, clothing, housing, and clean water. This is the dream. Read how to make 36 it a reality. 8 20 Tracking China’s urban emissions A first estimate of China’s urban energy use. 24 Have we reached peak CO2? If CO2 is seen as a non-renewable resource, then the answer is yes. 28 Closing the global budget for CO2 The global financial crisis probably explains the modest 2% growth in emissions in 2008 compared with 2007. 20 32 Where sinking land meets rising water Five hundred million people call deltas their home. Their home is sinking. 36 Climate services for all? The World Climate Conference laid out a framework for climate services on the time and space scales needed by society. Will it deliver? Welcome to global Change, the new magazine from the International 40 Getting a handle on ecosystem services geosphere-Biosphere Programme. global Change is based on our Identifying and valuing ecosystem services has proved difficult. old newsletter, which has had a long and successful history. With the Here land-use scientists discuss new ways of valuing land. new magazine, we want to broaden our appeal and reach a wider audience. It will be distributed to researchers, policymakers, funders, journalists, pressure groups and others. global Change primarily publishes articles If you have an idea for a feature article or reporting science from within the extensive news, email Science Editor Ninad Bondre This first issue is timed to coincide with the Copenhagen climate IgBP network. [email protected] talks: many of the articles focus on recent carbon-cycle research. Of Published by: course, IgBP research goes much wider than climate change, and this IgBP Secretariat, Box 50005, SE-104 05, Editor: Ninad Bondre Stockholm, SWEDEN [email protected] will be reported in coming issues. We sincerely hope that you enjoy To subscribe, unsubscribe or change your Director of Communications: Owen gaffney our magazine, and we look forward to your feedback. details email: [email protected] [email protected] Printed by Bergs grafiska, Sweden graphic designer: Hilarie Cutler owen Gaffney ISSN 0284-5865 [email protected] director of Communications Circulation: 10, 000 copies [email protected] 2 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 74 ❚ Winter 2009 editorial sybil seitzinger, executive director, IGbP LL attention is vironmental change. on Copenha- In the last 20 years, Agen. The basis IGBP scientists have of the talks are, of demonstrated that course, the Inter- humans are the main governmental Panel driver of global en- on Climate Change vironmental change. (IPCC) assessments Is there an ad- and the UN’s Subsidi- equate system, like ary Body for Scientific IPCC, to assess the and Technological state of knowledge Advice. We are asked of all of the planet’s to supply our lat- key natural cycles, est research findings to both processes. how they are linked and how society IPCC and IGBP began just over 20 is affecting them? Key areas in need years ago. Since then, climate has of synthesis include the global nitro- moved close to the top of the interna- gen cycle, megacities and the coastal tional political agenda and IPCC has zone, environmental change and the adapted to meet the needs of govern- needs of least developed nations, land ments. Indeed, IPCC is now seen as a cover and climate, aerosols and others. gold standard for evidence-based policy. IGBP’s new integration, synthesis The Swedish researcher, Bert Bolin, a and exploration initiative (page 5), ini- key architect of both IPCC and IGBP, set tially in ten policy-relevant areas, aims up programmes like IGBP and the World to bring together many disciplines Climate Research Programme to coordi- in a truly integrated way to reduce nate research internationally, and IPCC uncertainty in the areas highlighted to assess it. But, IGBP was established above. This, we hope, will contribute in recognition that climate change is to a baseline for international research part of a larger challenge – global en- and policy in the coming decade. ❚ Is there an adequate system to assess the state of knowledge of all key “natural cycles? Global Change ❚ Issue 74 ❚ Winter 2009 ❚ 3 IGbP news Global nitrogen AssEssment needEd urgently HUmanity’S colossal effect “But our understanding of on the global carbon cycle the nitrogen cycle in rela- grabs all the headlines. In tion to climate is poor. We many ways, our effect on the are not even sure if nitrogen global nitrogen cycle is as big fertilisation leads to long- if not bigger. Now scientists term carbon sequestration in say nitrogen management on forests,” says Erisman, who a global scale is essential if we is based at the Netherland’s Humans have radically altered the global nitrogen cycle. are serious about curbing cli- Energy Research Centre. Credit: Istockphoto mate change. This is the mes- During the last few decades, production. sored by IGBP, the US State sage from the International the global increase in reactive All predictions are that Department, the UK’s Depart- Nitrogen Initiative’s (INI) side nitrogen from human sources changing diets towards more ment for Environment, Food event at COP-15 in December. – largely fertiliser manufac- meat and food production and Rural Affairs, the Dutch Event co-organiser Professor ture – has far outstripped particularly in developing ministry of the Environment, Jan Willem Erisman says, “Ni- natural production, on land countries will lead to more Housing and Spatial Plan- trogen has effects other than at least. Since the 1960s, the reactive nitrogen in circula- ning and others, highlights climate: biodiversity loss, rate of increase has acceler- tion. But the nitrogen cycle is the urgent need for a global human health, ecosystem ated sharply and since the yet to be adequately brought nitrogen assessment. eutrophication and water 1980s the anthropogenic into climate models. INI is co-sponsored by IGBP. pollution for example.” production exceeded natural The INI side event, spon- www.initrogen.org What might have led to the interglacial variability? Initial On the move findings seem to implicate IGbP seCretarIat changes in parameters such as NinaD Bondre joined IGBP the atmospheric concentrations as science editor in october. of carbon dioxide. For exam- Until recently, ninad was ple, interglacials prior to about based in london as an associ- 400,000 years ago, which were ate editor of Nature Geoscience. generally cooler as compared to he replaces suzanne nash, those occurring later, were char- who was IGBP's interim infor- acterised by lower atmospheric mation officer. carbon dioxide levels. The maximum sea level dur- From 1 January 2010 ing the penultimate interglacial IGbP scientific Committee Between ice ages Researchers led by chronis was several metres higher than members The oscIllaTIon between Tzedakis of the University of that today, and has been linked Incoming: Ray Bradley and ice ages and interglacials, the leeds, UK surveyed recent to melting of the Greenland Jean Palutikof relatively warm intervals of progress in understanding and antarctic ice sheets. This Outgoing: Mark stafford smith time separating ice ages, has interglacials. The group, part scenario is rather similar to that and steven Running been a persistent feature of of IGBP’s Past Global changes predicted to occur during the earth’s climate since about project, compiled existing coming centuries, as atmos- IGbP project’s scientific steering Committee chairs three million years ago. palaeoclimate data – such as pheric CO2 concentrations Ice core records dating ice volume inferred from the peak. so, a better handle on the Incoming: IGac co-chair back 800,000 years show how oxygen isotopic composition controls on past interglacials Paul Monks interglacials differed widely in recorded by an ice core from may hold the key to predicting Outgoing: Kathy law terms of their duration as well antarctica – to record the char- how exactly the most recent as climate. Given that intergla- acteristics of interglacials. interglacial that we are living Incoming: IleaPs co-chair cials are broadly governed by “The occurrence of intergla- in will respond to the impact of Markku Kulmala predictable cyclical changes cials with differing characteris- humans. Outgoing: Meinrat andreae in astronomical variables such tics is an intriguing aspect of the Tzedakis P c, Raynaud D, as the tilt of earth’s rotational ice ages that raises fundamental McManus J F, Berger a, Brovkin Incoming: IMBeR chair axis, a mystery remains as to questions about the earth’s V, Kiefer T (2009) Nature Geo- eileen hoffman the cause of this variability. climate”, say the researchers. science, 2:751-755. Outgoing: Julie hall 4 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 74 ❚ Winter 2009 Ocean acidification colleagues, which summarises among the principles summary published key scientific results and the identified at the workshop is to scIenTIsTs are calling for a outcome of the discussions.