Proposed Closure of Redcliffs School Independent Review of Transport-Related Submissions Table of Contents Main Report Page 1 Introduction 1 2 Background 2 2.1 Location 2 3 Travel Distance to the Schools 4 3.1 Submission 4 3.2 Review 4 3.3 Discussion 5 3.4 Summary 6 4 Change in Active Modes of Travel 7 4.1 Submission 7 4.2 Review 7 4.3 Discussion 7 4.4 Summary 8 5 Impacts on Other Users of the Transport System 9 5.1 Submission 9 5.2 Review 9 5.3 Discussion 9 5.4 Summary 9 6 Road Safety 10 6.1 Submission 10 6.2 Review 10 6.3 Discussion 11 6.4 Summary 13 7 Summary 15 7.1 Travel Distance to the Schools 15 7.2 Change in Active Modes of Travel 15 7.3 Impacts on Other Users of the Transport System 15 7.4 Road Safety 15 Figures 1 Redcliffs School Zone and School Locations 2 2 Redcliffs School Zone and Moncks Bay Census Area Unit 3 3 Redcliffs School Zone, School Locations and Accident Locations 12 Tables 1 Number of Reported Accidents at Different Times of Day 11 CCL file reference 14149 review Status Final Issued 11 September 2015 Ministry of Education Proposed Redcliffs School Closure P. 1 / 16 1. Introduction 1.1. The closure of Redcliffs School was proposed by the Minister of Education in March 2015, and submissions were invited on the proposal. A submission has been made by the school’s Board of Trustees, and this includes a number of transportation-related topics including road safety, likelihood of particular modes of travel, and transport efficiency issues. Several other submissions made by private individuals also raised transport matters. 1.2. This report reviews each of the various components within the submissions to determine the underlying assumptions, whether these are robust or if alternative assumptions could be reasonably be made, whether the methodology followed in each case is rigorous, and hence whether the conclusion is valid or if different outcomes would arise under a different paradigm. Ministry of Education Proposed Redcliffs School Closure P. 2 / 16 2. Background 2.1. Location 2.1.1. Redcliffs School is located approximately 8.2km southeast of Christchurch central city. It lies on the western side of Main Road, a Minor Arterial Road under the Christchurch City District Plan which links the settlement of Sumner towards the southeast with the remainder of the urban form of the city. It has a defined school zone, as shown below. 2.1.2. Also shown below are the locations of Mt Pleasant School and Sumner School, which are the locations to which students of Redcliffs School would transfer if the latter was to close. The van Asch Deaf Education Centre in Sumner is also shown, as this is the location from which Redcliffs School presently operates. Redcliffs School N Mt Pleasant School Sumner School School Zone van Asch Deaf Education Centre Figure 1: Redcliffs School Zone and School Locations 2.1.3. Much of the urbanised area of the school zone lies within the Moncks Bay census area unit, shown below and consequently data collected by the most recent census can be helpful in determining certain of the characteristics of those that may have children attending Redcliffs School. Ministry of Education Proposed Redcliffs School Closure P. 3 / 16 Redcliffs School N School Zone Moncks Bay Census Area Unit Figure 2: Redcliffs School Zone and Moncks Bay Census Area Unit Ministry of Education Proposed Redcliffs School Closure P. 4 / 16 3. Travel Distance to the Schools 3.1. Submission 3.1.1. The submission sets out the travel distances for the Mt Pleasant, Redcliffs and Sumner schools, and highlights that the temporary relocation of Redcliffs School has resulted in an additional 1.7km travel distance each day for students (Table 1 of the submission). It is noted that the distance from Redcliffs School to the Mt Pleasant site is approximately 2.4km, and to Sumner school approximately 3.3km. 3.1.2. The submission then goes on to calculate the costs associated with the additional travel, concluding that the increase in travel distance equates to an additional annual travel cost of approximately $47,000, or $650,000 over a 40-year appraisal period. 3.2. Review 3.2.1. Table 1 of the submission is not explicit as to whether the distances cited are the one-way journey length (that is, from home to school) or the two-way length (from home to school and back again). Consequently the source data has been obtained and this shows that the distances are one-way only, that is, from home to school. The 2010 data is based upon Redcliffs School being at the Redcliffs site, with the 2014 data reflecting the relocation of the school to the van Asch site in Sumner. The values are ‘crow-fly’ distances, and are derived from the actual home locations of students. 3.2.2. Nevertheless, a number of journey distances appear spurious. For example, in the 2014 data set, there was one student that apparently travelled more than 27km from their home to the school, which in practice would mean that the student’s home address was in Rolleston, Kaiapoi or another outlying settlement. While this cannot be precluded, it would seem to be an unusual circumstance at best. There are a considerable number of other journey distances that are not possible to achieve from locations within the school zone, and therefore these must represent home addresses for out-of-zone students. 3.2.3. The inclusion of addresses within the data set that are located considerably outside the school zone presents a number of issues. From a practical perspective, the nature of school zones is such that potential students living outside the zone are given lower priority than those within the zone, and they are therefore not assured of a place. On a year-on-year basis, this means that the number of students living outside the zone can fluctuate significantly, which precludes a realistic comparison of the annual data. 3.2.4. Moreover, those students living outside the zone specifically seek to attend Redcliffs School and it could be argued that they therefore are aware that their journey will be longer compared to attending another school. As such, the process of putting themselves forward necessarily means that they will typically be less sensitive to changes in the journey distance compared to those that live within the zone, and will not be expecting to walk or cycle to the school. 3.2.5. Consequently, to ensure that the data sets can be fairly compared, the information has been cleaned to remove those students living outside the zone. The maximum distance between the Redcliffs site and the urban edge of the school zone is 1.9km, and thus for the 2010 data, distances of more than this have been removed. The maximum distance between the van Asch site and the urban edge of the Redcliffs school zone is 4.3km, and thus for the 2014 data, distances of more than this have been removed. Ministry of Education Proposed Redcliffs School Closure P. 5 / 16 3.2.6. This results in a corrected 2010 average distance to school of 0.8km, and for 2014 the average distance becomes 2.5km. Thus the additional travel distance associated with the relocation of the site is confirmed to be 1.7km. 3.2.7. The calculation within the submission then sets out that there will be a cost associated with the extra travel time that will be necessary if students were to attend another school. In order to calculate this, a number of variables have been defined. 3.2.8. The school roll is assumed to be 221 students, based on the 2014 roll. This is therefore a reasonable assumption. 3.2.9. The increase in journey distance is assumed to be 1.7km, which is derived from Table 1 of the submission for the 2014 travel distance for Redcliffs students compared to the 2010 distance. This has been reviewed against the source data as described above, and is robust. 3.2.10. A value for time of $9.80 per hour has been used, which assumes that children are driven to school. This value is extracted from the latest version of the NZTA Economic Evaluation Manual and has been updated to a 2014 base year. 3.2.11. An average travel speed of 30km/h is allowed for. The prevailing speed limit on the roads which will be used is 50km/h, but it is not possible to maintain this speed during all parts of the journey due to the need to slow to pass through intersections and the like. 3.2.12. Based upon these factors, the submission sets out that extra 1.7km will take an additional 3.4 minutes to travel, which equates to $0.55 per person. For 221 students, this equates to $245.44 per day. Anticipating that a school is open for 192 days of the year, then this results in a figure of $47,000 each year. This figure is numerically correct. 3.3. Discussion 3.3.1. Although the calculation and inputs of the submission withstand scrutiny, the derived figure allows for the journey to school to drop-off the child, and the journey from school having picked up the child, but does not recognise that part of the journey that is made by the caregiver without the child. If this is allowed for, then the annual cost of additional travel set out above becomes $94,000.