Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Environment andSustainableDevelopment Environment DIRECTIONS INDEVELOPMENT Indigenous Peoples and Indigenous Peoples Climate Changein Climate Latin Americaand the Caribbean Jakob Kronik and Dorte Verner Jakob Kronik andDorte Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean Jakob Kronik and Dorte Verner © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 13 12 11 10 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The maps in this book were produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on these maps do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-8213-8237-0 eISBN: 978-0-8213-8381-0 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8237-0 Cover photos: Dorte Verner Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. Contents Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii Abbreviations xv Chapter 1 Introduction1 Indigenous Peoples of LAC2 Climate Change and Climatic Variability in LAC4 Determinants of Vulnerability8 Approach and Outline of Study 11 Notes 12 References 13 Chapter 2 Indigenous Peoples of the Amazon 15 Threats and Perceptions of Climate Change 17 Effects of Climate Change on Indigenous Peoples’ Livelihoods 25 Transforming Structures and Processes 32 Institutional Framework 35 Adaptation and Survival Strategies 37 Summary 39 v vi Contents Notes 40 References 41 Chapter 3 Indigenous Peoples of the Andes 45 Threats from Climate Change 46 Andean Region—Bolivia’s Northern Altiplano 50 Sub-Andean Region—Bolivia’s Northern Yungas 58 Summary 65 Notes 66 References 68 Chapter 4 Indigenous Peoples of the Caribbean and Central America 71 Abrupt Effects of Extreme Events 72 Effects of Slow-Onset Climate Change Processes 85 Indirect Social Impacts from Climate Change 92 Summary 92 Notes 93 References 94 Chapter 5 Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change Across the Region 97 Threats 100 Impacts 102 Potential Effects 106 Adaptation 107 Indigenous Peoples, Mitigation of Climate Change, and Protection of Biodiversity 110 Notes 116 References 117 Chapter 6 Conclusions and Recommendations 123 Indigenous Peoples of Latin America and the Caribbean 124 Culture, Livelihood, Institutions, and Knowledge 125 Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Peoples 127 Climate-Change Adaptation in an Indigenous Context 129 Climate-Change Mitigation in an Indigenous Context 130 Contents vii Operational Recommendations 131 Needs for Further Research 133 Notes 134 References 135 Appendix A Climate Change and Climatic Variability in Latin America and the Caribbean 137 Images of Present Change 138 Images of the Future 144 Aspects of Observed Climate 146 Global Climate Change Issues 150 Projections of Regional Climate Change 153 Further Research 164 Notes 165 References 166 Appendix B Field Work Methodology 171 Notes 173 Reference 173 Index 175 Boxes 1.1 Projected Climate Change and Climatic Variability in LAC6 2.1 The Annual Ecological Calendar (as It Should Be) 20 2.2 The Effects of Seasonal Change on the Giant Turtle, an Endangered Species 26 3.1 Glacial Retreat Gravely Affects Highland Herders 48 3.2 Quechua-Speaking Populations and Water Resources in the Cordillera 53 3.3 Competition and Conflict over Water Resources 58 3.4 Some Testimonies 63 4.1 Indigenous Peoples in Mexico and Nicaragua 73 4.2 Edited Testimony of April 2008 by Oswaldo Morales, Garifuna, Member of the National Commission for Territorial Demarcation of Indigenous Land, Laguna de Perlas, Nicaragua 81 6.1 Indigenous Peoples and Migration Related to Climate Change 127 A.1 Climate Definitions 140 viii Contents A.2 Sources of Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Projections 154 A.3 Hurricanes 157 Figures 1.1 Climate Change Hot Spots in LAC7 1.2 Nexus between Climate Change and Social Implications8 1.3 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework 9 2.1 Monthly Temperatures on the Amazon and Putumayo Rivers 18 2.2 Colombian Amazonia: Northern and Southern Seasonal Regimes 19 2.3 Colombian Amazonia: Northern and Southern Seasonal Regimes: River Levels and Precipitation 20 2.4 Caquetá River (Araracuara) Monthly Precipitation 22 2.5 Caquetá River Monthly Levels 23 2.6 Precipitation in Northern and Southern Regimes 24 2.7 Colombian Amazon Population Density and Indigenous Peoples’ Areas 31 2.8 Colombian Amazon Forest Cover 33 2.9 Indigenous Territories and Conservation Areas in Colombian Amazonia 34 3.1 Major Indigenous Peoples in Bolivia 49 3.2 Andean Region of the Northern Altiplano 50 3.3 Sub-Andean Region of Yungas 59 4.1 Climate Change and Indigenous Communities on the Nicaraguan Atlantic Coast 75 4.2 Frequency and Economic Losses from Natural Disasters in Mexico, 1970–2000 77 4.3 Areas Affected by Hurricane Joan, 1988 78 4.4 Areas Affected by Hurricane Felix, 2007 79 4.5 Five Major Groups of Indigenous Peoples of Michoacán, Mexico 90 4.6 Increasing Aridity in the State of Michoacán, Mexico, 2030, 2060, and 2090 91 A.1 Linear Trend of Annual Temperatures 139 A.2 Trend in Annual Land Precipitation Amounts, 1901–2005 142 A.3 Geographic Distribution of Long-Term Linear Trends in Mean Sea Level, 1955–2003 143 Contents ix A.4 Comparison of Observed Continental- and Global-Scale Changes in Surface Temperature 152 A.5 Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Central and South America 156 A.6 Changes in Extremes Based on Multimodel Simulations from Nine Global Coupled Climate Models 161 Tables 1.1 Facts on the Indigenous Peoples of LAC3 2.1 Facts on the Indigenous Peoples of Amazon Countries 16 3.1 Facts on the Indigenous Peoples of the Andean and Sub-Andean Countries 46 4.1 Facts on Indigenous Peoples in the Central American Isthmus 72 4.2 Major Hurricanes in Mexico since 1982 76 4.3 Description and Characteristics of Each Productive Zone Shown in Figures 4.3 and 4.4 79 4.4 Typical Assets Held by Indigenous Coastal and Poor Inland Mestizo Communities 83 4.5 Nicaragua: The Social Impact of Intensified Storms and Hurricanes on Indigenous Coastal and Poor Inland Mestizo Communities 86 5.1 Elements of a Comparative Framework on the Social Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Peoples of LAC 98 A.1 Projected Global Average Surface Warming and Sea-Level Rise at the End of the 21st Century 163 Foreword As the Western Hemisphere slowly awakens to the nature of climate change, indigenous peoples have long been acutely aware of its impact. They observe directly its effects on the environment and the natural resources that sustain their livelihoods, while struggling to find appropri- ate responses to these new challenges. This groundbreaking work, undertaken by the Sustainable Development department, delivers a first-hand account of how indige- nous communities in Latin America and the Caribbean are affected by climate change and climate variability. The authors have written the first evidence-based book describing the social implications of climate change on indigenous communities in the region and have provided options for improving local resilience and adaptation policies. Across the region, indigenous peoples’ perceptions of climate change correspond with observed changes in precipitation and temperature as measured by local weather stations and as described by global climate models. Despite the minimal levels of greenhouse gas emissions that result from traditional indigenous lifestyles, indigenous peoples often blame themselves for the climate change they observe around them. Motivated by this deep sense of relationship to their natural environment, they are looking for ways to modify their own behavior to help restore the balance between nature and humans. xi This book bases its conclusions on new field research among indige- nous communities in three major eco-geographical regions: the Amazon, the Andes and Sub-Andes, and the Caribbean and Mesoamerica. It finds major inter-regional differences in the impacts observed among areas prone to rapid and slow-onset natural hazards. In Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, increasingly severe storms and hurricanes damage infrastruc- ture and property and cause the loss of productive land, reducing access to vital resources. In the Colombian Amazon, changes in the amount and seasonality of precipitation have direct and immediate effects on the livelihoods and health of indigenous peoples. Crops are failing more often, and the seasonal renewals of fish stocks are threatened by changes in the ebbs and flows of rivers.