We are increasingly coming into contact with robots and far-reaching automation. WORKING ON THE ROBOT SOCIETY Examples include robot vacuum cleaners, self-scanning checkouts, and online tools enabling you to draw up legal contracts yourself. The debate about what this automa- tion will mean for future employment has now started in media, science, and politics. Some see opportunities with new possibilities for more comfort, health, and economic growth. Others worry about whether ‘smart technology’ will replace jobs. This report deals with this last question. What does the use of smart technology mean for employment? What tasks can smart technology take over from humans, and where do humans and machines complement one another? How is the organization of labour and production processes changing, and what impact does this have on the automa- tion of work? Are certain groups on the labour market more vulnerable than others? What policy measures can we adopt to exploit the opportunities of automation and prevent negative effects as far as possible? The report Working on the robot society sets out current scientifi c fi ndings for the relationship between technology and employment. It looks at the future and describes the policy options. In so doing, the report provides a joint fund of knowledge for societal and political debate on how the Netherlands can organize a robot society that is an enticing prospect for all. Working on the robot society Visions and insights from science concerning the relationship between technology and employment Rinie van Est & Linda Kool (eds.) RATHENAU INSTITUUT RATHENAU The Rathenau Instituut promotes the formation of political and public opinion on Who was Rathenau? science and technology. To this end, the institute studies the organization and The Rathenau Instituut is named after Professor G.W. Rathenau (1911-1989). development of science systems, publishes texts on the social impact of new Rathenau was consecutively Professor of Experimental Physics at the University technologies, and organizes debates on issues and dilemmas in science and of Amsterdam, Director of the Philips Physics Laboratory in Eindhoven, and a technology. member of the Scientifi c Advisory Council on Government Policy. He gained a national reputation as Chair of the committee given the task in 1978 of investigating the consequences for society of the advent of microelectronics. One of the recommendations in the report was the production of a systematic study of the signifi cance of technology for society. Rathenau’s activities contributed to the establishment of the Netherlands Organization for Technological Assessment (NOTA) in 1986. NOTA was renamed the Rathenau Instituut on 2 June 1994. Working on the robot society Visions and insights from science concerning the relationship between technology and employment © Rathenau Instituut, The Hague, 2015 Rathenau Instituut Anna van Saksenlaan 51 Postal address: Postbus 95366 2509 CJ The Hague The Netherlands Tel: +31 (0)70-342 15 42 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.rathenau.nl Publisher: Rathenau Instituut Processing of interview reports: Christine voor Taal Editing: Redactie Dynamiek Translation: Taalcentrum-VU Layout: Boven de Bank, Zeist Cover image: Hollandse Hoogte Infographics: Rikkers Infographics First impression: September 2015 ISBN/EAN: 978-90-77364-70-3 Preferred citation: Est, R. van & L. Kool (eds.). Working on the robot society: visions and insights from science concerning the relationship between technology and employ- ment, The Hague, Rathenau Instituut 2015 Original title: Werken aan de robotsamenleving. Visies en inzichten uit de wetenschap over de relatie technologie en werkgelegenheid The Rathenau Instituut operates an Open Access policy. Reports, background studies, scientific articles, and software are published so that they are freely available. Research data are made available in accordance with legal provisions and ethical standards for research relating to the rights of third parties, privacy, and copyright. © Rathenau Instituut 2015 The reproduction and/or publication of (parts of) this work for creative, personal or educational purposes is authorized provided that copies are not made or used for commercial purposes and on condition that the copies contain the full reference above. In all other cases, no part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published by means of print, photocopy, or otherwise without the prior written consent of the Rathenau Instituut. Working on the robot society Visions and insights from science concerning the relationship between technology and employment Editors Rinie van Est and Linda Kool Authors Rinie van Est, Ira van Keulen, Linda Kool, Arnoud van Waes, and Frans Brom (Rathenau Instituut) Frans van der Zee and Govert Gijsbers (TNO) Jan Korsten, Harry Lintsen and Johan Schot (Foundation for the History of Technology) Board of the Rathenau Instituut Mrs. G.A. Verbeet (chair) Prof. dr. E.H.L. Aarts Prof. dr. ir. W.E. Bijker Prof. dr. R. Cools Dr. H.J.M. Dröge Drs. E.J.F.B. van Huis Prof. dr. ir. H.W. Lintsen Prof. mr. J.E.J. Prins Prof. dr. M.C. van der Wende Dr. ir. M.M.C.G. Peters (secretary) Rathenau Instituut 5 Foreword Brigitte van der Burg Different ideas circulate within society about the impact of technological developments and globalization on our lives, jobs, and prosperity. There is uncertainty about the effects of breakthroughs such as nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, robotization, and 3D printing. Will these developments herald the destruction of jobs or, conversely, the creation of different, and perhaps even more jobs? Are we creating winners and losers on the labour market? If so, who will these winners and losers be? Or will we, after a period of adaptation, perhaps all be better off? What can we learn from great periods of technological change in the past, such as the industrial revolution? And what is the role of politics? What should the political community do, and what should it allow? How can politics and society enable us to seize these opportunities and at the same time deal with the risks prudently? The House of Representatives of the Dutch Parliament, specifically the Standing Committee for Social Affairs and Employment, has felt it was necessary to gain a clearer understanding of the consequences of technological developments for the labour market. It wanted to address this important issue proactively. The House of Representatives accordingly asked the Rathenau Instituut to draw up a report to clarify current scientific knowledge concerning the impact of technological developments on the labour market, and on prosperity over time. A study of this kind is important to gain scientific insights and use the lessons of history to underpin political debate. This could dispel certain ‘myths’ and fill in gaps in our knowledge. As in many other areas, the close links between science and politics have again proven to be of huge value here. The present report by the Rathenau Instituut provides the insights requested. It thus constitutes a shared fund of knowledge on the basis of which everyone can, from his or her conception of society and political perspective, weigh up the opportunities and risks that technological developments may present for employment and economic growth, both now and in the future. Looking back, the report also shows us that such technological developments have often given us different jobs, more jobs, and greater prosperity as well. An important question continues to be whether, with current technological developments, things will turn out the same way. Change is inevitable and will affect every one of us, whether we want it or not. How we cope with change will determine future levels of employment and 6 Working on the robot society prosperity in our country. A pronouncement made by Franklin D. Roosevelt in the last century can guide us here: “The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today. Let us move forward with strong and active faith.” Brigitte van der Burg Chair of the House of Representatives’ Committee for Social Affairs and Employment Rathenau Instituut 7 Foreword Melanie Peters Before catching the train home, I sometimes pop into the AH To Go market at Den Haag Centraal railway station in the Dutch city of The Hague. I’m faced with long queues in front of the staffed checkouts, but there is nobody at the self-service checkouts. What makes people queue up when they have a train to catch? More and more frequently, we are coming into contact with robots or ongoing automation in our personal and professional lives. For a long time, develop- ments in robotics and artificial intelligence seemed a long way off. We laughed about the amateurish level of the applications. But developments now seem to have gone much faster than we expected. The speech recognition in my mobile phone works well, a robotic lawnmower is now affordable, nobody is fazed when a story about drones comes on the news, and soon a self-driving bus will be operating in the Dutch municipality of Wageningen. Robotization is affecting more areas of society than initially expected, including healthcare, transport, police, the armed forces, and the world of work, to name but a few. The Rathenau Instituut has considerable experience of research on robotiza- tion and computerization. These are issues which our Work Programme for 2015-2016 also addresses. In this study, we have – at the request of the House of Representatives’ Committee for Social Affairs and Employment – set out current scientific findings concerning the impact of information technology on employment in the past, present, and future. Strikingly, there is reasonable consensus among scientists about the relationship between information technology and work in the recent past. But there is very little consensus as regards predictions for the future. According to a recent survey conducted by the Dutch employment agency Intermediair, the average Dutch person describes the impact of artificial intelligence on the labour market as ‘alarming’.