The Potential of Strategic Environmental Assessment for Integrated and Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Republic of Yemen: Scenario-Based Strategic Assessment of the Water Resources Policies Adopted in ‘Yemen’s Strategic Vision 2025’ A thesis approved by the Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Process Engineering at the Brandenburg University of Technology in Cottbus in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the academic degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Environmental Sciences Presented by Amer Al-Ghorbany (M.Sc., B.Sc.) (Born in Taiz, Yemen) Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Michael Schmidt Supervisor: Prof. Dr. rer. Nat. Hans-Jürgen Voigt Date of the oral disputation: 13.02.2014 Declaration I hereby declare that this thesis is the result of my original work carried out at Brandenburg University of Technology (BTU) Cottbus, Germany, within the framework of the doctoral program in Environmental and Resource Management. The thesis contains no material previously published or written by another person except where due acknowledgement is made in the text of the thesis. I also declare that this thesis has never been presented for a degree in this or any other university. Amer Al-Ghorbany Cottbus, 15th July 2013 ii ABSTRACT Yemen is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. The water deficit has been aggravated by the rapidly increasing demands for both surface and groundwater resources that are being unsustainably exploited. To address the country’s severe water scarcity, the government has adopted long-term intervention policies as stated in ‘Yemen's Strategic Vision 2025’. These policies are aimed at restoring the balance between water demand and availability, and at reducing the existing water deficit. Although 11 years have passed since this vision was adopted, the water deficit is still on the rise. The present situation raises questions about the efficiency of the intervention policies adopted by ‘Yemen's Strategic Vision 2025’ and about the effectiveness of implementing these policies. Another fundamental question pertains to the availability of a strategic assessment tool in the water resources sector that can be used to assess strategically future and current policies, strategies and plans, in order to ensure their efficiency in supporting water resources and in producing the positive impacts for which these strategic initiatives were developed in the first place. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is an assessment tool designed to function at a strategic level and help to bring aspects of environmental sustainability into the decision- making process. This research aims to demonstrate the potential of SEA in enhancing environmental sustainability in water policies for achieving sustainability of water resources in Yemen. In order to show the potential of SEA in the Yemeni water resources sector, this research has applied SEA methodologies and adopted a scenario-building approach for assessing the intervention policies adopted by ‘Yemen's Strategic Vision 2025’ to support augmentation of water resources. Qualitative and quantitative approaches have been used in this research. Quantitative historical data on water availability, water demand and water savings by interventions have been collected from the databases of national institutions and international organizations concerned. Statistical analyses have been used to project future trends until 2025. Qualitative analyses of relevant studies and reports covering the environmental, administrative, socio- cultural and political-economic aspects of water resources management in Yemen have been implemented as well. In addition, 13 semi-structured key informant interviews have been iii conducted with decision-makers, managers and leading experts in the water and irrigation sectors. The research produced three future scenarios for the total water balance that may play out until 2025 in Yemen. These scenarios provide impact assessment and alternatives’ comparison of the existing intervention policies. The resulting scenarios are as follows: the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which forms an assessment of currently applied interventions and provides an image for the future, if current interventions are maintained at the same pace; the ‘Do-nothing’ scenario representing the situation if no interventions are implemented; and the ‘Sustainability’ scenario, which represents the potential future of the total water balance if existing interventions are to be scaled up and out. The findings confirm the significant potential of currently adopted intervention policies to support water resources. They also reveal that the current level of implementing the intervention policies has hindered the potential of these intervention policies in achieving the expected positive impact on the water balance by 2025. In order to achieve a significant decrease in the water deficit, the strategic quantitative targets that need to be implemented were identified. The methodology followed in implementing the research and achieving the findings demonstrates the potential of SEA in enhancing environmental sustainability in water policies for achieving integrated and sustainable water resources management in Yemen. The recommendations of the research covered improving the existing water balance as well as improving the assessment and planning context in the water resources sector. In order to improve the water balance situation, the research recommends implementing quantitative targets for water savings and augmentations, such as those developed by this research. These targets have been identified based on the capacities of sectors implementing these interventions. The research also recommends further decentralization of planning and management of water resources and the establishment of Water User Associations (WUAs) as the main vehicles for ensuring sustainable planning and management of water resources, including the scale out of interventions, subject to assessment in this research. In order to improve assessment and planning of water resources, the research recommends the adoption of SEA, the updating of water resources data and conducting regular assessments of policies, plans and programmes as part of monitoring their impact and providing a chance for amending these policies and strategies, if required, to achieve sustainability of water resources. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my gratitude and sincere appreciation to my principal supervisor Professor Michael Schmidt, the head of Environmental Planning Department in BTU Cottbus, who has made available his support in a number of ways. His thought-provoking questions, insightful discussions sessions and guidance have helped throughout the different stages of carrying out this research. I thank him for giving me the opportunity to carry out my research under his supervision and also for supporting me to secure the required fund for carrying out this research. I am also grateful to Prof. Hans-Jürgen Voigt, my second supervisor, for his support, scientific advice and suggestions, particularly in setting the underlying assumptions of the future scenarios developed under this research. I owe my deepest gratitude to the thirteen decision makers, experts and managers who I interviewed during the field visit that I conducted in Yemen. The valuable answers these interviewees provided formed an essential and primary resource for developing the research outputs. From water sector, I would like to thank Prof. Mohammed Lutf Al-Eryani, Eng. Abdulrahman Fadhl Al-Eryani, Eng. Abdulkader Hanash, Eng. Salem Bashuaib, Eng. Noori Gamal, and Eng. Mahmoud Sultan. From the Water and Environment Center of Sana’a University, I am thankful to Dr. Fadhl Al-Nuzaili and Dr. Abdulla Noman. From the irrigation sector, I would like to thank Eng. Abdulwahed Al-Hamdi, Eng. Abdulkareem Al- Sabri, Dr. Ezz Addin Al-Gunied, Eng. Kahled Al-Selwi and Eng. Ahmed Hasan. I would like to thank those who provided me with the information required for carrying out this research or facilitated obtaining the required information. I wish to thank Eng. Hamoud Al-Rubaidi from the Groundwater and Soil Conservation Project (GSCP), Mr. Mohamed Shamsan from the Ministry of Water and Environment, Eng. Qahtan Al-Asbahi and Eng. Nabil Abdulkader from the National Water Resources Authority (NWRA) and Dr. Gerhard Redecker from the German Development Bank (KfW). I am indebted to my colleague Befikadu Alemayehu from the Environmental Economy department. Without his assistance, the statistical analysis under this research would not have been an easy task. v Special thanks to Dr. Mohamed Al-Zikri, the cultural anthropologist, for the very fruitful discussions and for sharing his extensive knowledge on research methodology and scientific working and writing. Last but not least, I gratefully acknowledge the generous support of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) for carrying out this research. vi DEDICATION I dedicate my work to my wife, daughter and son for their unconditional love and unwavering support without which the journey towards completing this research would have been much more difficult. vii Table of Contents Declaration…………………………………………………………………………… ii Abstract………………………………………………………………………………. iii Acknowledgement …………………………………………………………………... v Dedication……………………………………………………………………………. vii Lists of Figures, Tables and Boxes………………………………………………....... xi List of Acronyms and Abbreviations………………………………………………… xiii 1. INTRODUCTION…………………………………….………………………….