University of New Mexico UNM Digital Repository Political Science ETDs Electronic Theses and Dissertations 9-9-2010 Rallying Around the Flag in the Era of the Traditional Presidency John Todsen Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/pols_etds Recommended Citation Todsen, John. "Rallying Around the Flag in the Era of the Traditional Presidency." (2010). https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/ pols_etds/2 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Electronic Theses and Dissertations at UNM Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science ETDs by an authorized administrator of UNM Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. RALLYING AROUND THE FLAG IN THE ERA OF THE TRADITIONAL PRESIDENCY BY JOHN PATRICK TODSEN B.A., Government, English, German, New Mexico State University, 1997 M.A., Government, New Mexico State University, 1999 DISSERTATION Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Political Science The University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico July, 2010 Dedication This work is dedicated to the women who, past and present, have had the biggest roles in shaping my life, academic and otherwise: My Paternal Grandmother, Margaret, who gave me a deep-seated drive to investigate and question; My Mother, Sharon, who gave me at an early age an enduring love of reading; My two Daughters, Anna and Aubrey, for whom this project was finally brought to a successful conclusion; And more than anyone else, My Wife, Andrea, but for whose patience, understanding and support, none of this would have been possible. My best chosen friend, companion, guide, to walk through life, linked hand-in-hand, two equal, loving friends, true husband and true wife. -- Sir Charles Gavan Duffy iii Acknowledgements I owe thanks to so many people who have helped me along the way to the close of this project that I can never name them all. I will try to include the highlights. Any omissions are unintentional and accompanied by my deepest apologies. First and foremost, I heartily acknowledge and owe a debt of gratitude for the aid and contributions of Dr. Michael Rocca, my advisor and dissertation chair, for his continual encouragement and for reminding me exactly what I was doing, why and for whom it was being done. I also thank the balance of my committee, Dr. Mark Peceny and Dr. Timothy Krebs, both from the University of New Mexico, and Dr. Nancy Baker, Regents Professor of Government at New Mexico State University, for their valuable contributions and suggestions for this project and my own more general professional development. To my fellow graduate students in the Political Science Department, past and present, and especially those who have shared my office, I offer both my thanks and my appreciation. I have gone, behind that door, from depressed to frantic, with everything in between. Despite that, I have never had anything but acceptance and support over the years. Among these, a special word of thanks goes to Michele Leiby for her continued and incredibly helpful advice, both personal and professional. Over the years, our friendship has had its ups and downs, but I count myself privileged that it is still there. Finally, I owe my thanks, my love, my apologies and, now that I have more of it, my time to my family, Andrea, Anna and Aubrey. I have put you three through a lot, over the last year especially. Thank you so much for sticking by me. iv RALLYING AROUND THE FLAG IN THE ERA OF THE TRADITIONAL PRESIDENCY BY JOHN PATRICK TODSEN ABSTRACT OF DISSERTATION Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Political Science The University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico July, 2010 RALLYING AROUND THE FLAG IN THE ERA OF THE TRADITIONAL PRESIDENCY by JOHN PATRICK TODSEN B.A., Government, English, German, New Mexico State University, 1997 M.A., Government, New Mexico State University, 1999 Ph.D., Political Science, The University of New Mexico, 2010 ABSTRACT The rally around the flag effect describes the president’s to increase in job approval during and immediately after an international crisis. This project has been built as an attempt to explain why that effect occurs. The literature on the presidency and public opinion point at two determinants for the rally effect: the acceptance of the President as the symbolic leader of the nation and the center of action in the government, and opinion leadership, especially that given by the independent mass media. By examining the development of the rally effect, I tested the relative importance of these two factors. To test these factors, I used a mixed methods approach to analyze the existence of rally effects in each of three cases. The quantitative portion included development of a proxy measure for public approval through the content analysis of newspapers before, during and after potential rally events. Applying a bivariate analysis to this measure, I could show when there were changes in the patterns of mentions of and attitudes towards the President, the Congress, and public opinion. I added to this analysis a qualitative narrative, adding depth to the analysis and showing where the determinants were and why the numbers were telling the story that they did. vi I selected three potential historical cases of rallies. The first, focused on the Thornton Affair and the Mexican-American War, was designed to be a least-likely case, with neither factor present. The third event, the publication of the Zimmerman Telegram and the First World War, was a most-likely case, with both present. The second case, the sinking of the battleship USS Maine and the Spanish-American War, involved one of the determinants, the independent media, being present, with the other, the symbolic presidency, not yet fully developed. My results showed no rally in the first case and a modern rally in the third. In the second case I found a lagged increase in approval, linked with the policy change rather than with the rally event itself. This supports the idea that it is indeed the symbolic presidency that drives people the rally around the flag. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................xi CHAPTER 1: WHY DO WE RALLY AROUND THE FLAG?............................................1 The Puzzle .....................................................................................................................3 The Lessons...................................................................................................................9 Dissertation Overview.................................................................................................15 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE, THEORY AND METHODOLOGY ...................................17 Rallying in the Modern Era .........................................................................................18 Patriotism and the President as center of action..............................................19 Opinion leadership and the mass media. .........................................................22 The rally effect as power. ................................................................................26 The Development of the Rally Effect..........................................................................28 Three stages of rally development...................................................................29 Testing the Theory.......................................................................................................36 CHAPTER 3: THE RALLY EFFECT IN INFANCY: THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN WAR .....................................................................................................................................44 Introduction .................................................................................................................44 Case Selection .............................................................................................................46 Polk and the Early Presidency.....................................................................................48 Background .................................................................................................................53 Rally Event: The Thornton Affair ...............................................................................55 The War.......................................................................................................................62 Conclusions .................................................................................................................68 viii CHAPTER 4: THE RALLY EFFECT TRANSITIONAL -- THE SPANISH-AMERICAN WAR............................................................................................................................71 Introduction .................................................................................................................71 Case Selection .............................................................................................................74 McKinley and the Transitional Presidency .................................................................76 Rally Event: The Maine Explosion .............................................................................79 Background .................................................................................................................84 The