DEVELOPMENT OF THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTES AND INPUTS FOR PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE ASSESSMENTS OF NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLES A Thesis by DONALD D. J. GIANNANGELI III Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2007 Major Subject: Nuclear Engineering DEVELOPMENT OF THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTES AND INPUTS FOR PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE ASSESSMENTS OF NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLES A Thesis by DONALD D. J. GIANNANGELI III Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Approved by: Chair of Committee, William S. Charlton Committee Members, Pavel V. Tsvetkov Arnold Vedlitz Head of Department, William E. Burchill May 2007 Major Subject: Nuclear Engineering iii ABSTRACT Development of the Fundamental Attributes and Inputs for Proliferation Resistance Assessments of Nuclear Fuel Cycles. (May 2007) Donald D. J. Giannangeli III, B.S., Texas A&M University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. William S. Charlton Robust and reliable quantitative proliferation resistance assessment tools are critical to a strengthened nonproliferation regime and to the future deployment of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Efforts to quantify proliferation resistance have thus far met with limited success due to the inherent subjectivity of the problem and interdependencies between attributes that contribute to proliferation resistance. This work focuses on the diversion of nuclear material by a state and defers other threats such as theft or terrorism to future work. A new approach is presented that assesses the problem through four stages of proliferation: the diversion of nuclear material, the transportation of nuclear material from an internationally safeguarded nuclear facility to an undeclared facility, the transformation of material into a weapons-usable metal, and weapon fabrication. A complete and concise set of intrinsic and extrinsic attributes of the nation, facility and material that could impede proliferation are identified. Quantifiable inputs for each of these attributes are defined. For example, the difficulty of handling the diverted material is captured with inputs like mass and bulk, radiation dose, heating rate iv and others. Aggregating these measurements into an overall value for proliferation resistance can be done in multiple ways based on well-developed decision theory. A preliminary aggregation scheme is provided along with results obtained from analyzing a small spent fuel reprocessing plant to demonstrate quantification of the attributes and inputs. This quantification effort shows that the majority of the inputs presented are relatively straightforward to work with while a few are not. These few difficult inputs will only be useful in special cases where the analyst has access to privileged, detailed or classified information. The stages, attributes and inputs of proliferation presented in this work provide a foundation for proliferation resistance assessments which may use multiple types of aggregation schemes. The overall results of these assessments are useful in comparing nuclear technologies and aiding decisions about development and deployment of that technology. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many thanks go to my graduate advisor Dr. William S. Charlton for his outstanding guidance and patience, as well as to the other members of my thesis committee, Dr. Pavel V. Tsvetkov and Dr. Arnold Vedlitz. I would also like to offer my sincere appreciation to the experts and scientists with whom I collaborated on this project and whose contributions have been invaluable. They are David H. Saltiel, Paul E. Rexroth, Gary E. Rochau, Carmen M. Méndez, Zoe Meyer and Virginia Cleary of the Sandia National Laboratories, as well as Dominique Grenèche and Selena Ng of AREVA, Inc. I would also like to thank my parents Donald Johnson, Jr., and Madeleine Corbeil, grandparents Donald and Norma Johnson, and sister Kristen Johnson for their love and support all my life and especially through my college career. They are the source of all my encouragement and inspiration. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...................................................................................................v TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................................vi LIST OF FIGURES..........................................................................................................viii LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................ix CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................1 I.A. Motivation and Objectives.......................................................................................1 I.B. Previous Efforts........................................................................................................3 CHAPTER II ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING METHODOLOGIES................................9 II.A. TOPS.......................................................................................................................9 II.B. JAEA Methodology ..............................................................................................12 II.C. The IAEA’s INPRO Approach .............................................................................16 II.D. BNL Markovian Method ......................................................................................22 II.E. TAMU Additive Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis................................................24 II.F. PR & Physical Protection Evaluation of GenIV Nuclear Energy Systems...........30 II.G. Risk-Informed Proliferation Analysis...................................................................32 II.H. Simplified Approach for PR Assessment of Nuclear Systems.............................34 II.I. Summary ................................................................................................................36 CHAPTER III PROLIFERATION STAGES AND CRITICAL ATTRIBUTES.............38 III.A. Stages of Proliferation.........................................................................................39 III.B. Critical Attributes of Systems and Materials.......................................................42 III.B.1. Attributes of the Diversion Stage .............................................................42 III.B.2. Attributes of the Transportation Stage......................................................44 III.B.3. Attributes of the Transformation Stage ....................................................46 III.B.4. Attributes of the Weapon Fabrication Stage.............................................48 III.C. Summary..............................................................................................................50 CHAPTER IV MEASURABLE INPUTS ........................................................................51 IV.A. Diversion Stage ...................................................................................................51 vii Page IV.A.1. Material Handling ....................................................................................51 IV.A.2. Evading the Accountancy System............................................................55 IV.A.3. Evading the Material Control System ......................................................57 IV.B. Transportation Stage............................................................................................57 IV.B.1. Material Handling.....................................................................................57 IV.B.2. Evading Detection ....................................................................................61 IV.C. Transformation Stage ..........................................................................................62 IV.C.1. Facilities and Equipment ..........................................................................62 IV.C.2. Knowledge and Skills...............................................................................65 IV.C.3. Workforce.................................................................................................67 IV.C.4. Evading Detection ....................................................................................68 IV.D. Weapon Fabrication Stage ..................................................................................70 IV.D.1. Weapon Design ........................................................................................71 IV.D.2. Material Handling ....................................................................................73 IV.D.3. Knowledge and Skills ..............................................................................74 IV.E. Summary..............................................................................................................75 CHAPTER V QUANTIFYING AND AGGREGATING INFORMATION ...................76 V.A. MAUA Theory .....................................................................................................77 V.B. Example PR Analysis ...........................................................................................80 V.B.1. Utility Functions ........................................................................................80