WORKING FINAL COPY San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) Comprehensive Freight Gateway Study Working Final Copy March 25, 2010 Prepared by: HDR Decision Economics IHS Global Insight Cambridge Systematics SD Freight Rail Consulting Crossborder Group TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS....................................................................................................................I LIST OF FIGURES..........................................................................................................................III LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................................ V PREFACE..................................................................................................................................... VIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................ IX 1 INTRODUCTION: FREIGHT DYNAMICS IN THE GATEWAY REGION............................24 1.1 Understanding Freight Movement ................................................................................24 1.2 The Role of Freight Movement in the Regional and National Economy ......................25 1.3 Characteristics of and the Challenges to the Regional Freight Network......................27 1.4 Policies and Potential Impacts of Goods Movement in the Region .............................32 1.5 Plan of this Report........................................................................................................33 2 REGIONAL FREIGHT INFRASTRUCTURE PROFILE........................................................34 2.1 San Diego County Freight Infrastructure......................................................................34 2.1.1 Road Network and Ports of Entry......................................................................34 2.1.2 Rail Infrastructure..............................................................................................37 2.1.3 Seaport Infrastructure........................................................................................39 2.1.4 Airport Infrastructure..........................................................................................44 2.1.5 Warehousing Infrastructure...............................................................................48 2.1.6 Pipeline System.................................................................................................50 2.2 Imperial County Freight Infrastructure..........................................................................50 2.2.1 Road Network and Ports of Entry......................................................................50 2.2.2 Rail Infrastructure..............................................................................................51 2.2.3 Seaport Infrastructure........................................................................................52 2.2.4 Airport Infrastructure..........................................................................................52 2.2.5 Warehousing Infrastructure...............................................................................52 2.3 Baja California Freight Infrastructure............................................................................55 2.3.1 Road Network....................................................................................................55 2.3.2 Rail Infrastructure..............................................................................................56 2.3.3 Seaport Infrastructure........................................................................................58 2.3.4 Airport Infrastructure..........................................................................................59 2.3.5 Warehousing Infrastructure...............................................................................60 3 ESTIMATES OF EXISTING FREIGHT FLOWS ...................................................................62 3.1 Data Sources and Methodology ...................................................................................62 3.2 Estimates of Freight Flows passing through the Region’s Gateways ..........................65 3.2.1 Estimates of Freight Flows by Truck passing through the Region’s Land Ports of Entry along the Border with Mexico..........................................................................66 3.2.2 Estimates of Freight Flows by Rail passing through the Region’s Land Ports of Entry along the Border with Mexico..............................................................................71 3.2.3 Estimates of Freight Flows passing through the Port of San Diego .................76 3.2.4 Estimates of Freight Flows passing through the Region’s Airports ..................81 3.3 Estimates of Freight Flows within the Region ..............................................................82 3.4 Estimates of Total Freight Flows ..................................................................................84 3.4.1 Total Freight Flow Estimates by Mode of Transportation .................................87 3.4.2 Total Freight Flow Estimates by Commodity for the Gateway Region .............87 3.4.3 Total Freight Flow Estimates by Origin - Destination........................................88 4 FREIGHT FLOW FORECAST THROUGH 2050..................................................................91 4.1 Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions ................................................................91 4.2 Forecast of Freight Flows passing through the Region’s Gateways............................93 4.2.1 Forecast of Freight Flows by Truck passing through the Region’s Land Ports of Entry along the Border with Mexico..............................................................................93 4.2.2 Forecast of Freight Flows by Rail passing through the Region’s Land Ports of Entry along the Border with Mexico..............................................................................98 HDR|Decision Economics Table of Contents ● i 4.2.3 Forecast of Freight Flows passing through the Port of San Diego .................102 4.2.4 Forecast of Freight Flows passing through the Region’s Airports ..................107 4.2.5 Summary of Freight Forecast by Gateway .....................................................109 4.3 Forecast of Freight Flows within the Region ..............................................................110 4.4 Forecast of Total Freight Flows..................................................................................112 4.4.1 Forecast of Total Freight Flows by Mode of Transportation ...........................115 4.4.2 Forecast of Total Freight Flows by Commodity ..............................................117 4.4.3 Forecast of Total Freight Flows by Origin - Destination..................................118 5 POLICY CONSTRAINTS, MARKET CONDITIONS AND REGULATORY ISSUES .........121 5.1 Freight Policy Issues ..................................................................................................121 5.1.1 Funding Availability and Funding Priorities .....................................................121 5.2 Market Issues Impacting Freight ................................................................................122 5.2.1 Changing Market Conditions and Supply Chain Drivers.................................122 5.3 Regulatory Issues Impacting Freight..........................................................................123 5.3.1 National: U.S. DOT Mexican Trucking Regulations ........................................123 5.3.2 State: California Air Resources Board (CARB) Regulations...........................123 5.4 Land Use Conflicts and Land Use Availability for Freight Facilities ...........................125 5.5 International Developments Impacting Freight...........................................................125 5.5.1 Expansion of Panama Canal...........................................................................125 5.5.2 Port Development in Baja, California ..............................................................126 6 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS .............................................................128 6.1 Summary of Findings..................................................................................................128 6.2 Capacity Constraints and Challenges to Regional Goods Movement .......................129 6.3 Conclusions: Towards a Sustainable Freight System...............................................130 APPENDIX A: SUPPLEMENTARY DATA TABLES..................................................................132 APPENDIX B: MAPS SHOWING THE ORIGIN AND DESTINATION OF FREIGHT FLOWS..135 APPENDIX C: SUMMARY OF FREIGHT FLOWS BY POE .......................................................138 REFERENCES AND DATA SOURCES ......................................................................................142 HDR|Decision Economics Table of Contents ● ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: U.S. Gross Domestic Product and International Trade (1960-2008)...............................................24 Figure 2: Freight Transportation & Economic Growth ....................................................................................26 Figure 3: Origin of Freight Flows from the U.S. to Mexico, passing through the Region’s Land Ports of Entry .........................................................................................................................................................28