Labour Market Briefing April 2017 Introduction This briefing contains the latest data for Cumbria on the Claimant Count, Joblessness (UK only), NEETs, job postings, business start-ups and Companies House incorporations and is produced monthly on the day that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases claimant data. It should be noted that the “jobless” figures used extensively by the press are derived from a public survey. As this includes non-claimants looking for work and utilises a different population denominator, it can produce different trends to the claimant-only counts and should not be directly compared to the claimant count data. Sample sizes from the survey are too small to be reliable for local areas. However, ONS now produces quarterly modelled unemployment data for local areas which incorporates both claimant count and survey data and these data are included on page 9. It should also be noted that historical data are revised regularly and therefore data in this briefing should not be compared directly with that published in previous briefings. Important Note: ONS has announced that with effect from March 2017 they will no longer include the claimant count series in their UK and Regional Statistical Bulletins, although data will still be made available to users to conduct their own analysis. There are two principal reasons for this decision. Firstly the seasonal pattern of UC is not following the same pattern as JSA and secondly Universal Credit is designed so that a broader span of claimants is required to look for work than under JSA which has the effect of increasing the claimant count. This is noticeable in areas where UC is in more progressed phases of roll out and, in particular, those areas where Full Service Universal Credit is in operation (currently Workington and Whitehaven JobCentres in Cumbria). Therefore users are encouraged to interpret monthly movements in the claimant count with caution as changes may be due to administration of Universal Credit rather than reflecting labour market conditions. NB: The claimant count was taken on 9th March 2017. Contents 1. Key findings Page 2 2. National labour market overview Page 3 3. Unemployment data for Cumbria Page 5 4. NEETs Page 10 5. Job postings Page 12 6. Business start-ups Page 18 7. Companies House incorporations Page 21 ANNEX A Ward claimant count Page 22 Page 1 of 26 Labour Market Briefing April 2017 1. KEY FINDINGS Joblessness (UK only) The jobless total for the UK (claimants + non claimants looking for work) fell by 45,015 in the quarter to Feb 2017 and stood at 1.56m, 141,195 lower than a year ago; The UK jobless rate was 4.7%, the same as last quarter and down from 5.1% a year ago. Similar jobless figures are not available for local areas. National Seasonally Adjusted Claimant Data (UK only) The seasonally adjusted UK JSA claimant count was 765,400 in Mar 2017, up by 25,492 from last month and by 11,803 from the same month last year; The seasonally adjusted UK JSA claimant rate was 1.9% in Mar 2017, up 0.1 from last month. Seasonally adjusted figures are not available for local areas. Local Claimant Data In Mar 2017 there were 5,230 people in Cumbria claiming either JSA or Universal Credit (those not in employment but required to seek work), a rise of 225 from last month; Nationally the comparable non-seasonally adjusted claimant count rose by 16,840 from last month; The claimant count in Cumbria is 265 higher than a year ago and 15,950 higher nationally; The claimant count rose from last month in all districts in Cumbria except Barrow and South Lakeland with the biggest rises in Allerdale (+135) and Copeland (+55); The claimant count in Barrow, Carlisle and South Lakeland is lower than a year ago but it is higher in Allerdale, Copeland and Eden as well as nationally; The claimant rate in Mar 2017 in Cumbria was 1.7% which is 0.1 up from last month and is 0.3 lower than the national rate of 2.0%; Allerdale and Barrow have the highest number of claimants at 1,345 and 1,160 respectively and Barrow also has the highest rate at 2.8%; Claimant rates are above the national average in Allerdale (2.3%), Barrow (2.8%) and Copeland (2.6%); Claimant rates for all age groups in Barrow are higher than the national average as they are for all age groups in Copeland except those aged 55-59 (same rate as nationally) and for age groups under 40 in Allerdale; The modelled unemployment rate in Cumbria (which includes estimates of non-claimants) was 4.0% in the year to Dec 2016 compared to 4.8% nationally. The modelled unemployment rate in Barrow (5.6%) and Copeland (5.5%) was higher than nationally; The modelled unemployment count in Cumbria has fallen by 200 from last quarter but is 400 higher than a year ago. NOTE: the modelled unemployment rate is calculated as a % of the economically active population aged 16+ whereas the claimant rate is a % of all those aged 16-64 therefore rates should not be compared. NEETs In Feb 2017 there were 475 16-17 year olds in Cumbria reported as NEET, a rise of 29 from the previous month (7.7%) but 109 lower than the same month last year (-18.7%); In Feb 2017 the NEET rate for 16-17 year olds in Cumbria was 4.5%, a rise of 0.3 from last month but a fall of 0.9 from a year ago; Cumbria’s NEET rate of 4.5% compares to a national rate of 5.6%; NEET rates in Allerdale and Carlisle rose above the national rate in Feb 2017 (both 5.7%). Page 2 of 26 Labour Market Briefing April 2017 Job Postings There were 7,046 job postings in Cumbria in the quarter to Mar 2017, 603 fewer than in the previous quarter, a fall of 7.9% but there have been rises in each of the past 3 months; The Carlisle area accounted for 36.3% of all job postings (1,929 postings); Human health had the highest number of postings with 1,193 (29.2%); Business & public service associate professionals were the most in demand occupation (721, 10.0%) followed by health professionals (650, 9.2%); Communication (35.1%) and organisational skills (20.3%) were the most commonly mentioned baseline skills with customer service (11.4%) and sales (7.3%) the most common specialised skills; The National Health Service placed the highest number of postings (543, 15.4%) followed by Cumbria County Council (255, 7.2%); The highest proportion of jobs fell into the £20,000-£29,000 salary range (228.0%) with the mean advertised salary being £31,099; The most frequently required qualifications were GCSE/NVQ (30.8%) and bachelor’s degree (25.6%). Business Start-Ups & Companies House Incorporations There were 506 business start-ups in Cumbria in the quarter to Feb 2017, 35 more than in the previous quarter and also 35 more than the same quarter last year; The highest number of start-ups was in South Lakeland where there were 148 (29.2%); The sector with the highest number of start-ups was real estate, professional services & support services with 136 (26.9% of all start-ups); Barrow had the highest start up rate per 100 active enterprises with 13.7 starts per 100 active enterprises while Eden had the lowest at 7.4 per 100 active enterprises (England 18.0); South Lakeland and Eden had the highest start up rates as a proportion of working age residents with 92.3 and 85.3 per 10,000 working age residents respectively. Copeland had the lowest with 46.9 starts per 10,000 working age residents (England 114.9); There were 207 new Companies House incorporations in Cumbria in Feb 2017, up by 20 from the previous month and up by 29 from the same month last year; South Lakeland (63) and Carlisle (41) had the most new incorporations. 2. NATIONAL LABOUR MARKET OVERVIEW Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between September to November 2016 and the three months to February 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell. There were 31.84 million people in work, 39,000 more than for September to November 2016 and 312,000 more than for a year earlier. The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.6%, the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971. There were 1.56 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 45,000 fewer than for September to November 2016 and 141,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The unemployment rate was 4.7%, down from 5.1% for a year earlier. It has not been lower since June to August 1975. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed. Page 3 of 26 Labour Market Briefing April 2017 There were 8.88 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 10,000 fewer than for September to November 2016 and 36,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.6%, slightly lower than for September to November 2016 (21.7%) and for a year earlier (21.8%).