REVISED TERRESTRIAL ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESOURCES PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR ADMINISTRATIVE ACTION STATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT KINSTON BYPASS LENOIR, JONES, AND CRAVEN COUNTIES NORTH CAROLINA STIP PROJECT R-2553 WBS No. 34460.1.2 NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AUGUST 2013 REVISED DECEMBER 2014 REVISED OCTOBER 2017 R-2553 Kinston Bypass Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Project Study Area ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Project Setting ............................................................................................................ 3 1.3 Purpose of Predictive Model ....................................................................................... 3 2.0 Archaeological Predictive Models Background ............................................................... 4 2.1 Predictive Models Introduction .................................................................................... 4 2.2 Types of Archaeological Predictive Models ................................................................. 4 2.2.1 Descriptive Models .............................................................................................. 4 2.2.2 Behavioral Models .............................................................................................. 4 2.2.3 Statistical Models ................................................................................................ 5 2.3 Past Archaeologocal Predictive Models in North Carolina .......................................... 5 3.0 Archaeological Predictive Model Methodology ................................................................ 9 3.1 Type of Archaeological Predictive Model .................................................................... 9 3.2 Variables Used For Archaeological Predictive Model .................................................10 3.2.1 Soil Drainage .....................................................................................................10 3.2.2 Proximity to Water ..............................................................................................12 3.2.3 Topographic Setting ...........................................................................................13 3.2.4 Proximity to Historic Roads ................................................................................14 3.2.5 Previously Recorded Civil War Historic Resources ............................................22 3.2.6 Disturbed/Developed Areas ...............................................................................22 3.2.7 In-River Archaeological Resources ....................................................................23 3.3 Geographic Information Systems Methodology ..........................................................23 3.3.1 Geographic Information Systems Introduction ....................................................23 3.3.2 Data Layer Creation ...........................................................................................23 3.3.2.1 Soil Drainage ..................................................................................................23 3.3.2.2 Proximity to Water ...........................................................................................23 3.3.2.3 Topographic Setting ........................................................................................24 3.3.2.4 Proximity to Historic Roads .............................................................................24 3.3.2.5 Previously Recorded Civil War Historic Resources .........................................24 3.3.2.6 Disturbed/Developed Areas ............................................................................25 3.3.3 Variable Weighting .............................................................................................25 3.3.4 Archaeological Potential Generation ..................................................................25 4.0 Terrestrial Archaeological Predictive Model Results ......................................................27 4.1 Segments, Draft Preliminary Corridors, and Detailed Study Alternatives ...................27 4.2 Results of Individual Variables for Archaeological Predictive Model ...........................27 4.3 Results of Comprehensive Archaeological Predictive Model for Project Study Area ..34 4.4 Results of Comprehensive Archaeological Predictive Model For DSA Corridors ........38 5.0 Summary of Recommendations.....................................................................................41 6.0 November 2014 Update ................................................................................................42 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................42 6.2 Results of 2014 Functional Design Analysis ..............................................................42 7.0 October 2017 Update ....................................................................................................50 7.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................50 7.2 Results of 2017 Functional Design Analysis ..............................................................50 7.3 Comparison of 2014 and 2017 Results ......................................................................50 7.4 Summary ...................................................................................................................59 8.0 References ....................................................................................................................60 Revised Archaeological Predictive Model i October 2017 R-2553 Kinston Bypass List of Tables Table 1. Highly Sensitive Soil Types and Drainage for Kinston Bypass Study Area ..................11 Table 2. Low Sensitivity Soil Types and Drainage for Kinston Bypass Study Area ....................12 Table 3. Archaeological Probability for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors .....................................38 Table 4. Archaeological Probability for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors as of November 2014 ..43 Table 5. Archaeological Probability for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors as of October 2017 ......52 Table 6. Comparative Calculations for 2014 to 2017 Changes. .................................................59 List of Figures Figure 1. Project Study Area ...................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2. Circa 1862 Sketch Map of Greene and Lenoir Counties .............................................15 Figure 3. 1900 Soil Map, Lenoir Sheet ......................................................................................16 Figure 4. 1938 Lenoir County Road Map...................................................................................17 Figure 5. 1868 Map of Jones County ........................................................................................18 Figure 6. 1903 Soil Map, Craven Sheet ....................................................................................19 Figure 7. 1938 Jones County Road Map ...................................................................................20 Figure 8. Historic Roads in Study Area .....................................................................................21 Figure 9. Soil Drainage Classifications ......................................................................................28 Figure 10. Proximity to Water Classifications ............................................................................29 Figure 11. Topographic Setting Classifications..........................................................................30 Figure 12. Proximity to Historic Road Classifications ................................................................31 Figure 13. Civil War Sites ..........................................................................................................32 Figure 14. Disturbed/Developed Areas .....................................................................................33 Figure 15. Prehistoric Archaeological Sensitivity Results ..........................................................35 Figure 16. Historic Archaeological Sensitivity Results ...............................................................36 Figure 17. Composite of Archaeological Predictive Model Results ............................................37 Figure 18. Archaeological Sensitivity for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors...................................39 Figure 19. Archaeological Sensitivity for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors 1UE and 1UESB .......44 Figure 20. Archaeological Sensitivity for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors 11 and 12 ..................45 Figure 21. Archaeological Sensitivity for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors 31 and 32 ..................46 Figure 22. Archaeological Sensitivity for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors 35 and 36 ..................47 Figure 23. Archaeological Sensitivity for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors 51 and 52 ..................48 Figure 24. Archaeological Sensitivity for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors 63 and 65 ..................49 Figure 25. Comparison of 2014 Design and 2017 Right of Way for Kinston Bypass. .................51 Figure 26. Archaeological Sensitivity for Kinston Bypass DSA Corridors 1UE and 1UESB (October 2017 design) .......................................................................................................53