Climate Change and European Fisheries and Aquaculture CERES Project Synthesis Report 'Climate change and European Fisheries and Aquaculture' CERES Project Synthesis Report Lead Authors & Myron A. Peck, Ignacio A. Catalán, Dimitrios Damalas, Michael Chapter Contributors: Elliott, Joao G. Ferreira, Katell G. Hamon, Pauline Kamermans, Susan Kay, Cornelia M. Kreiß, John K. Pinnegar, Sévrine F. Sailley, Nick G.H. Taylor, Ian G. Cowx, Alhambra M. Cubillo, Ralf Döring, Thomas K. Doyle, Adam S. Kennerley, Mark R. Payne, Eleni Papathanasopoulou, Vanessa Stelzenmüller This report summarises the research findings of the EU Horizon 2020 CERES (Climate change and European Aquatic Resources) project, executed between March 2016 and February 2020, and coordinated by the University of Hamburg. CERES Project Coordinator Myron A. Peck CERES Project Manager Anastasia Walter CERES Communications Fintan Burke Recommended Citation: Peck MA, Catalán IA, Damalas D, Elliott M, Ferreira JG, Hamon KG, Kamermans P, Kay S, Kreiß CM, Pinnegar JK, Sailley SF, Taylor NGH (2020) Climate Change and European Fisheries and Aquaculture: ‘CERES' Project Synthesis Report. Hamburg. DOI: 10.25592/uhhfdm.804 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 678193. This document reflects only the authors' views. The European Commission is not responsible for the dissemination of CERES project results or for any use that may be made of the information. ceresproject.eu 2 CERES project consortium Universities Research institutes Industry partners 3 List of species common names and their scientific equivalent Common name Genus species (or family) American lobster Homarus americanus Atlantic horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus Atlantic pollack Pollachius pollachius Atlantic salmon Salmo salar Bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis Blue crab Callinectes sapidus Blue mussel Mytilus edulis Bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus Bream Abramis brama Catfish Silurus spp. Common carp Cyprinus carpio Dolphinfish Coryphaena hippurus European anchovy Engraulis encrasiocolis European clam Ruditapes decussatus European sardine Sardina pilchardus European sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax Fivebeard rockling Ciliata mustela Gibel carp Carassius gibelio Goby Neogobius sp. Grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella Grey gurnard Eutrigla gurnardus Haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus Hake Merluccius merluccius Mackerels Scombridae, Trachurus spp. Meagre Argyrosomus regius Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis Mediterranean parrotfish Sparisoma cretense Mullet Mullus surmuletus, M. barbatus Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas Peruvian anchovy Engraulis ringens Picarels Spicara sp. Pike-perch Sander lucioperca Plaice Pleuronectes platessa Rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss Red mullet Mullus barbatus, M. surmuletus Roach Rutilus rutilus Round sardinella Sardinella aurita Saithe Pollachius virens Sea bream Sparus aurata Silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix Sole Solea solea Sprat Sprattus sprattus Squid Loligo spp. Topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva Whiting Merlangius merlangus 4 List of abbreviations ABC Aquaculture Biosecurity and Carrying-capacity model BSAP Baltic Sea Action Plan CVA Climate Vulnerability Assessment DOC Dissolved Organic Carbon European application of the Hydrological Predictions for the E-HYPE Environment model EU European Union FARM Farm Aquaculture Resource Management model GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Seas IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MAGNET Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool MEY Maximum Economic Yield MSY Maximum Sustainable Yield PP Primary Production NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, PESTEL Environmental and Legal RCP Representative Concentration Pathway SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SSP Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SST Sea Surface Temperature WG Working Group 5 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction to the CERES project ............................................................... 8 Chapter 2: Projections of future environmental change ............................................ 15 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 16 2.2 Atlantic coast ........................................................................................................................... 18 2.3 Mediterranean Sea ................................................................................................................ 20 2.4 North Sea ................................................................................................................................ 22 2.5 Baltic Sea ..................................................................................................................................23 2.6 Norwegian and Barents Seas ............................................................................................. 25 2.7 Inland waters.......................................................................................................................... 26 2.8 Comments on quality and uncertainty ............................................................................ 28 2.9 Changes in sea level and storminess ............................................................................... 29 2.10 Downscaling to aquaculture farms................................................................................. 29 2.11 The potential for seasonal forecasting to support the fishing and aquaculture industries ............................................................................................................... 30 Chapter 3: Social and economic developments in Europe .......................................... 32 3.1 CERES scenarios .................................................................................................................... 33 3.2 Fisheries scenarios................................................................................................................ 37 3.3 Aquaculture scenarios.......................................................................................................... 42 Chapter 4: Risks and opportunities for the European fisheries sector ...................... 45 4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 46 4.2. Direct and indirect effects of climate change and biological models ........................ 48 4.3. Historical changes: Attribution of climate versus fishing ............................................ 51 4.4. Future changes in distribution and productivity ............................................................ 54 4.5 Economic consequences for European fisheries ............................................................ 58 4.6 Risk analysis of European marine fish, fishing fleets and fishery-dependent communities ...................................................................................................................................61 4.7 Adverse consequences and opportunities: Stakeholders perceptions .......................63 Chapter 5: Climate change and the European aquaculture sector ........................... 67 5.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 68 5.2. Direct and indirect effects on farmed fish and shellfish ............................................... 69 5.3. Future changes in the productivity of farmed fish and shellfish ...............................74 5.4. Economic consequences for European aquatic food producers & markets............77 5.5. Vulnerability of the European aquaculture sector......................................................... 80 6 5.6 Adverse consequences and opportunities for aquaculture: Stakeholder perceptions .................................................................................................................................... 82 Chapter 6: Climate change and European fisheries and aquaculture: Solutions and future directions .............................................................................................................. 86 6.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................87 6.2 Combined effects of climate change on European fisheries & aquaculture...........88 6.3 Solutions for European fisheries and aquaculture .......................................................91 6.4 Future research needs ..........................................................................................................96 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................99 References ....................................................................................................................................100 7 Introduction to the CERES project 1 Myron A. Peck Chapter 1: Introduction to the CERES project Fish and shellfish harvested from capture fisheries and aquaculture play a critical role for global food security. The per capita supply of fish continues to increase driven largely by