THE FLOERSHEIMER INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES Jerusalem in the Future: The Challenge of Transition Edited by Shlomo Hasson June 2007 1 Principal Editor: Shunamith Carin Printed by Achva Printers, Ltd. ISSN 0792-6251 Publication No. 1/61 © 2007, The Floersheimer Institute for Policy Studies Ltd. Jerusalem, Israel Tel. 972-2-5883368 office@fips.org.il www. fips.org.il 2 About the authors Shlomo Hasson is a Professor of Geography and Urban Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Professor Hasson’s fields of interest are divided cities, the geopolitical conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, the conflict between Jews and Arabs in Israel, cultural conflicts between ultra-orthodox and secular Jews, sustainable development and urban planning. He is the co-editor of the books: Sustainable Jerusalem (2004), Jews and Arabs Facing a Changing Real- ity (2004), Barriers to Equality: Arabs in Israel (2006), and editor of the book The Future of Jerusalem: The Challenge of Transition (2007). Rassem Khamaisi is a professional urban and regional planner and Senior Lec- turer in the Geography Department at Haifa University. He has published exten- sively on urban planning issues regarding the Arab-Palestinian community in Israel. He is a co-author of the three volume IPCC Jerusalem Strategic Planning series: The Jerusalem Urban Fabric, Jerusalem on the Map and The Annexation and Expansion Wall in the Jerusalem Area. Ifat Maoz is a social psychologist and Senior Lecturer in the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Her main research interests are: cognitive-perceptual mechanism in conflict and ne- gotiation, evaluation of inter-group contact interventions, peace building and reconciliation, and patterns of communication and interaction between groups in conflict. She has published articles on these topics in academic journals includ- ing: Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Ex- perimental Social Psychology, Research on Language and Social Interaction, Human Relations, Journal of Social Issues. Rami Nasrallah is the Head of the International Peace and Cooperation Center (IPCC). He is a graduate of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in International Relations. He is currently a PhD candidate in Planning at the Technology Uni- versity of Delft in the Netherlands. During the period 1993-1996 he was a po- litical advisor and Israel Desk Officer at the Orient House in Jerusalem. From 1996 to 1998 he was director of the Orient House Special Project Unit, where he coordinated a core team of experts. Rami Nasrallah is a research associate at Cambridge University, and a member of the advisory board of the Center for Peace Studies at the University of Oklahoma. He is the co-author of the book 3 The Jerusalem Urban Fabric, and co-editor of the books Divided Cities in Transition, and Divided Cities in Transition: Challenges Facing Jerusalem and Berlin. Noam Shoval is a lecturer in the department of Geography at the Hebrew Uni- versity of Jerusalem. His main research interests are: Tourism and culture as tools for urban regeneration, models of hotel location, and tourism management policies in heritage cities. Lately he began to investigate the implementation of advanced tracking technologies for research in relation to visitors to historical cities and to Alzheimer’s research. Amiram Gonen is professor emeritus of Geography at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His recent publications include From Yeshiva to Work: The Ameri- can Experience and Lessons for Israel, Between Torah Learning and Wage Earning: The London Experience and Lessons for Israel and Connected and Strengthened Jerusalem, published this year. About the study Divided cities are quite often microcosms of much larger geopolitical conflicts. They are, as Fred Boal writes, an encapsulation of the broader geopolitical con- flict and its different political, economic, spatial, and cultural dimensions. This is particularly true of cities like Jerusalem, Sarajevo, Mostar, Nicosia, Belfast, or Beirut in the past. The major problem this book seeks to address is the future of the divided city of Jerusalem and its prospects of transition from conflict to peace. Shlomo Hasson examines the territorial, social, economic, and political devel- opments in Jerusalem and explores how they may affect possible solutions to the problem of Jerusalem. Shlomo Hasson and Rami Nasrallah explore the dif- ferent possible futures that may be played out in the city due to the impact of local, national, and international developments. Rassem Khamaisi proposes the alleviation of the Palestinian plight through the realization of the right to the city. Amiram Gonen explores new ways of strengthening Jerusalem by creating new contacts between Israelis and Palestinians. Noam Shoval examines the morphology of the city and the impact of the security barrier on everyday life. 4 Ifat Maoz presents survey data on public opinion regarding different solutions to the problem of Jerusalem. About the Institute The awareness to the importance of policy research has been growing in Israel in recent years. The Floersheimer Institute for Policy Studies is the initiative of Dr. Steven H. Floersheimer to establish an institute focusing on long term policy issues. The institute’s objective is to research fundamental trends which future policy makers will face, to analyze their long term ramifications, and to recom- mend policy and strategy options to policy makers. The fields of research at the Institute are: Relations between Religion Society and State in Israel; Jews and Arabs in Israel; Israel and its Arab Neighbors; Society, Space and Governance in Israel. The members of the Board of Directors are Dr. Steven H. Floersheimer (chairman), Adv. I. Amihud Ben-Porath (vice chairman), Mr. David Brodet, formerly Director-General of the Ministry of Finance, and Mr. Hirsch Good- man, Senior Research Fellow at the Jaffe Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University 5 The Floersheimer Institute for Policy Studies Additional Publications on Jerusalem Shlomo Hasson, The Cultural Struggle Over Jerusalem, 1996 Shlomo Hasson, Ultra-Orthodox and Secular Jews in Jerusalem: Scenarios and Strategies, 1997 Shlomo Hasson and Amiram Gonen, The Cultural Tension Between Jews in Jerusalem, 1997 Shlomo Hasson, Jerusalem: Future Development and Boundaries , 1999 Shlomo Hasson, The Struggle for Hegemony in Jerusalem: Secular and Ul- tra-Orthodox in Urban Politics, 2001 Nimrod Luz, Al Haram Al Sharif in the Arab-Palestinian Public Discourse in Israel: Identity, Collective Memory and Social Construction, 2004 Yaacov Garb, The Separation Barrier and Jerusalem's Arab Neighbor- hoods: Integrate or Separate But Don't Postpone, 2004 Yaacov Garb and Hank Savitch, Urban Trauma in Jerusalem: Impacts and Possibilities for Recovery, 2005 Jerusalem in the Future: Scenarios and a Shared Vision, 2005 (The Frie- drich Ebert Foundation, The International Peace and Cooperation Center, The Floersheimer Institute for policy Studies) Moshe Amirav (Ed.) Mr. Prime Minister, Jerusalem, 2005 (Carmel publish- ing and the Floersheimer institute) Amiram Gonen, Connected and Strengthened Jerusalem, 2007 Shlomo Hasson (Ed.) Jerusalem in the Future: The Challenge of Transition, 2007 All publications can be downloaded from our website www.fips.org.il 6 Table of Contents Jerusalem: the Challenge of Transition 9 Shlomo Hasson 9 The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict in Jerusalem: The Challenge of Transition 12 Shlomo Hasson Jerusalem: Scenarios, Vision, and Strategies 39 Shlomo Hasson and Rami Nasrallah In The Shadow of the Separation Wall: Impeding the Right to the City and Shaping the Palestinian Spatial Environment in Jerusalem/al-Quds 63 Rassem Khamaisi Transformation of the Urban Morphology of Jerusalem: Present Trends and Future Scenarios 90 Noam Shoval Towards an Interconnected Jerusalem Metropolis 121 Amiram Gonen Psychological Factors in the Transition to Post-Conflict Cooperation and Reconciliation: The Case of Jerusalem 146 Ifat Maoz 7 8 Jerusalem: the Challenge of Transition Shlomo Hasson Introduction Divided cities are quite often microcosms of much larger geopolitical conflicts. They are, as Fred Boal writes, an encapsulation of the broader geopolitical con- flict and its different political, economic, spatial, and cultural dimensions. This is particularly true of cities like Jerusalem, Sarajevo, Mostar, Nicosia, Belfast, or Beirut in the past. The major problem this book seeks to address is the future of the divided city of Jerusalem and the prospects of transition from conflict to peace. Hypotheses Over the years Israelis and Palestinians who considered the issue of Jerusalem within the overall conflict came up with two radical approaches: One approach, which is the dominant one, argues that any solution to the Jerusalem problem has to be postponed until the macro conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is resolved. This consideration has guided most of the peace initiatives until now, including the Oslo Accord and the Road Map initiative. Another approach, sometimes described as thinking the unthinkable, assumes the opposite. It states that resolving the Jerusalem problem is a precondition for any resolution of the macro geopolitical conflict. The failure of the Camp David Summit of 2000, in which Jerusalem proved to be the main stumbling block, lends some support to the argument. 9 The two approaches express two hypotheses, or even political theories, which are radically different