Conceptual modelling for the Gippsland Basin bioregion Product 2.3 from the Gippsland Basin Bioregional Assessment 2018 The Bioregional Assessment Programme The Bioregional Assessment Programme is a transparent and accessible programme of baseline assessments that increase the available science for decision making associated with coal seam gas and large coal mines. A bioregional assessment is a scientific analysis of the ecology, hydrology, geology and hydrogeology of a bioregion with explicit assessment of the potential direct, indirect and cumulative impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining development on water resources. This Programme draws on the best available scientific information and knowledge from many sources, including government, industry and regional communities, to produce bioregional assessments that are independent, scientifically robust, and relevant and meaningful at a regional scale. The Programme is funded by the Australian Government Department of the Environment. For more information, visit http://www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au. Department of the Environment The Office of Water Science, within the Australian Government Department of the Environment, is strengthening the regulation of coal seam gas and large coal mining development by ensuring that future decisions are informed by substantially improved science and independent expert advice about the potential water related impacts of those developments. For more information, visit http://www.environment.gov.au/coal-seam-gas-mining/. Bureau of Meteorology The Bureau of Meteorology is Australia’s national weather, climate and water agency. Under the Water Act 2007, the Bureau is responsible for compiling and disseminating Australia's water information. The Bureau is committed to increasing access to water information to support informed decision making about the management of water resources. For more information, visit http://www.bom.gov.au/water/. Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning The Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning creates liveable, inclusive and sustainable communities that support jobs and growth in Victoria. We recognise the link between the built and natural environment in the quality of our lives, and work to accommodate population growth while maintaining world class liveability and protecting our heritage for future generations. For more information, visit http://www.delwp.vic.gov.au. Geological Survey of Victoria The Geological Survey of Victoria (GSV) is Victoria’s geoscience agency and leading authority on Victorian geology. The GSV is the custodian of over 160 years of geological knowledge. The GSV provides objective and authoritative geoscientific data and advice, creates and delivers innovative geoscience information, on a wide range of earth resources which underpin sound Victorian government policy, programs and projects. For more information, visit http://www.energyandresources.vic.gov.au/earth- resources/geology-of-victoria/geological-survey-of-victoria. Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Agriculture Victoria works with the agriculture and fisheries industries on research, development and extension to improve production, connect the sector with international markets, support development and maintain effective biosecurity controls. For more information, visit http://agriculture.vic.gov.au ISBN: 978-1-925315-90-5 Citation DELWP (2017) Conceptual modelling for the Gippsland Basin bioregion. Copyright © Commonwealth of Australia 2015 With the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms and where otherwise noted, all material in this publication is provided under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en. The Bioregional Assessment Programme requests attribution as ‘© Commonwealth of Australia (Bioregional Assessment Programme http://www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au)’. Disclaimer The information contained in this report is based on the best available information at the time of publication. The reader is advised that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. Therefore decisions should not be made based solely on this information or without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice Cover photograph Lake Victoria, Victoria, 2013 Credit: Hashim Carey ii | Contents Methods ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.3.1.1 Background and context ........................................................................................................ 7 Summary of key system components, processes and interactions ...................................... 9 2.3.2.1 Geology .................................................................................................................................. 9 2.3.2.2 Hydrogeology ....................................................................................................................... 11 2.3.2.3 Regional groundwater flow system conceptualisation ....................................................... 13 2.3.2.4 Surface water ....................................................................................................................... 15 2.3.2.5 Water balance ...................................................................................................................... 18 2.3.2.6 Gaps ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Baseline and coal resource development pathway ........................................................... 20 2.3.3.1 Developing the coal resource development pathway ......................................................... 20 2.3.3.2 Gaps ..................................................................................................................................... 25 References ............................................................................................................................... 26 Datasets ................................................................................................................................... 26 | 3 2.3.1 Methods Figures Figure 1 Generic example of groundwater depth at a specific location over time for the baseline coal resource development (baseline), coal resource development pathway (CRDP) and additional coal resource development (ACRD) ................................................................. 8 Figure 2 Gippsland sedimentary basin equivalent hydrostratigraphic framework ...................... 10 Gippsland Basin bioregion Basin Gippsland Figure 3 Surface geology map of Gippsland Basin bioregion ....................................................... 11 Figure 4 Simplified regional cross-section for the Gippsland Basin; only major stratigraphic units are shown (source: Beverly et al., 2015) ......................................................................... 15 Figure 5 Location of the major watercourses and river basins of the Gippsland sub-region....... 18 Figure 6 Coal developments in the Gippsland Basin bioregion coal resource development data analysis for the for analysis data - pathway (CRDP) ............................................................................................................... 21 Component 2: Model 2: Component 4 | 2.3.1 Methods Component 2: Model 2: Component Tables Table 1 Victorian Aquifer Framework name and descriptions .................................................... 12 Table 2 Summary table for existing operations and proposed developments to define the - baseline and coal resource development pathway ........................................................ 22 the for analysis data Table 3 Coal development projects in the coal resource development pathway ....................... 23 Table 4 Production rates for mines being modelled in Gippsland Basin bioregion CRDP .......... 24 Gippsland Basin bioregion Basin Gippsland | 5 2.3.1 Methods Gippsland Basin bioregion Basin Gippsland 2.3 Conceptual modelling for the Gippsland Basin bioregion This product summarises key system components, processes and interactions in this bioregion. It also describes the coal resource development pathway (CRDP), which articulates the most likely combination of coal and coal seam gas (CSG) developments at a bioregion or bioregion scale, data analysis for the for analysis data including the individual projects expected in future. - The conceptual model guides how the groundwater modelling (product 2.6.2 ) is conducted. Component 2: Model 2: Component 6 | 2.3.1 Methods Methods Model 2: Component Summary The conceptual model of causal pathways characterises the causal pathway, the chain of logic or activities ‒ either intentional or unintentional ‒ that link coal resource development and potential impacts on water and water-dependent assets. This section details the specific application to the Gippsland Basin bioregion. - data analysis for the for analysis data Key concepts and terminology are also explained, and the overall steps are summarised: a) Synthesising the key system components, processes and interactions for the geology, hydrogeology and surface water of the bioregion; b) Defining the baseline coal resource development (baseline) and the coal resource development pathway (CRDP). The approach taken in the Gippsland Basin bioregion has utilised existing state-based resources