Cover The cover illustration highlights the words Russia and military strategy. The General Staff and the Academy of Military Science continue to keep strategic thought in sync with future war scenarios and high-tech developments, such as hypersonic missiles. The subtitle informs that military reform is designed to incorporate new weaponry and organizational shifts into the force. The objects clutched by the double-headed eagle signify Russia’s reform progress from the era of Kalashnikov rifles to the era of digital input guaranteeing the “informationization” of military equipment. Geopolitical initiatives ensure that Russia looks out for its strategic interests. The views expressed in this document are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the US government. The author works for the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO), Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. FMSO is a component of the US Army's Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) G-2. FMSO does unclassified research and analysis of foreign perspectives of the operational environment. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 1 CHAPTER ONE: VLADIMIR PUTIN: PATRIOT, ZEALOT, OR THREAT? ............................................................................................... 7 Introduction .......................................................................................... 7 Putin’s Personality ................................................................................ 8 Putin’s 2007 Time Magazine Interview .............................................. 11 Kokoshin’s Way of Considering Conviction: Ideology, Politics, Military ............................................................................................... 13 Two US Views on Putin’s Pros and Cons: Remnick versus Mearsheimer ....................................................................................... 17 Two Russian Views on Putin’s Pros and Cons: Trenin versus Pavlovskiy .......................................................................................... 22 Putin’s impact ..................................................................................... 28 Conclusion .......................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER TWO: RUSSIA’S MILITARY STRATEGY ................ 37 Introduction ........................................................................................ 37 Concepts and the History of Russian Military Strategy ..................... 41 The 1971 Officer’s Handbook ........................................................ 41 1983 Soviet Military Encyclopedic Dictionary .............................. 42 2003 Military Encyclopedia ........................................................... 43 Objective-Subjective Thought’s Impact on Strategy ...................... 45 History of Russian Military Strategy .............................................. 50 Foresight/Forecasting and the Correlation of Forces ................... 53 People and Policies ............................................................................. 59 Renowned Russian Military Theorists: A Look at the Work of A. A. Svechin ............................................................................................ 59 Andrey A. Kokoshin on Svechin ...................................................... 60 Gareev on Frunze and Svechin ....................................................... 64 Renowned Russian Military Theorists: A Look at the Work of V. D. Sokolovsky ...................................................................................... 66 Renowned Russian Military Theorists: A Look at the Work of N. V. Ogarkov .......................................................................................... 70 The Journal, Military Thought ....................................................... 73 Major General (retired) Aleksandr V. Rogovoy ................................. 80 Conclusions ........................................................................................ 80 CHAPTER THREE: THINKING LIKE A RUSSIAN OFFICER .. 83 Introduction ......................................................................................... 83 Hybrid Thought ................................................................................... 85 New-Generation War .......................................................................... 87 Forecasting, COF, Forms, Methods, and Trends ................................ 91 Russia’s Indirect/Asymmetric Template ............................................. 95 Cross-Domain Deterrence: An Indirect/Asymmetric Vector? .......... 111 Reflexing the Adversary and the Civilian Population ...................... 117 Conclusions ....................................................................................... 123 PART TWO: FUTURE WAR ........................................................... 127 CHAPTER FOUR: NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND EQUIPMENT ............................................................................................................... 129 Introduction ....................................................................................... 129 UAV Types by Agency, District, or Service .................................... 130 Characteristics of UAVs ................................................................... 136 Some Counter-UAV Thoughts ......................................................... 142 Individual Equipment (Ratnik, Strelets, etc.).................................... 146 Army 2015 International Military-Technical Forum ........................ 150 Electronic Warfare ............................................................................ 152 Armor ................................................................................................ 164 Other New Equipment (Vehicles, etc.) ............................................. 166 Conclusions ....................................................................................... 171 CHAPTER FIVE: AEROSPACE AND STRATEGIC ROCKET FORCES .............................................................................................. 173 Introduction ....................................................................................... 173 Theory, Tasks, and Missions of the VKO......................................... 175 The Aerospace Theater of Military Operations ................................ 177 The Big Four Aerospace Threats to Russia ...................................... 179 Why Form a VKS?............................................................................ 182 The Defense Ring around Moscow ................................................... 184 Other Issues ....................................................................................... 186 Space Troops ..................................................................................... 188 Air Force ........................................................................................... 189 Strategic Rocket Forces .................................................................... 190 Developing Hypersonic Weapons..................................................... 196 Crimea, the Arctic, and Aerospace Assets ........................................ 197 Conclusions ....................................................................................... 198 CHAPTER SIX: RUSSIA PREPARES FOR FUTURE WAR ...... 201 Introduction ....................................................................................... 201 Automatons in Epaulettes ................................................................. 201 The Advanced Research Foundation ................................................ 220 Science Companies ........................................................................... 224 2014 Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation ........................... 230 Future War ........................................................................................ 232 A Look at Some Recent Articles ...................................................... 241 Conclusions ...................................................................................... 251 CHAPTER SEVEN: RUSSIA’S DIGITAL PROMINENCE ......... 253 Introduction ...................................................................................... 253 An Important Book on Digital Issues ............................................... 254 Some Recent Developments and Case Studies ................................ 259 Russian Cyber Motivation: External and Internal Cyber Dangers ... 262 Policy Responses of the Kremlin ..................................................... 267 Intelligence Oversight ...................................................................... 271 Military-Related Cyber/Information Reforms .................................. 275 International and Diplomatic Issues: A China Focus ....................... 290 Conclusions ...................................................................................... 297 PART THREE: GEOPOLITICS ...................................................... 301 CHAPTER EIGHT: NORTHERN EXPOSURE: REVEALING RUSSIA’S ARCTIC INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDUP .................. 303 Introduction ...................................................................................... 303 Part One ............................................................................................ 303 The Use of Diplomatic Subterfuge