JULIA 2010 The caretaker election JULIA 2010 The caretaker election Edited by Marian Simms and John Wanna Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at http://epress.anu.edu.au National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Julia 2010 : the caretaker election / edited by Marian Simms and John Wanna. ISBN: 9781921862632 (pbk.) 9781921862649 (eBook) Series: ANZSOG series Notes: Includes bibliographical references. Subjects: Gillard, Julia. Elections--Australia--2010. Political campaigns--Australia--21st century. Australia--Politics and government--21st century. Other Authors/Contributors: Simms, Marian. Wanna, John. Dewey Number: 324.70994 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design and layout by ANU E Press Printed by Griffin Press This edition © 2012 ANU E Press Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia Contents Acknowledgments . ix Contributors . xi Abbreviations . xiii 1 . The Caretaker Election of 2010: ‘Julia 10’ versus ‘Tony 10’ and the onset of minority government . 1 Marian Simms and John Wanna Part 1. Leaders, Ideologies and the Campaign 2 . Diary of an Election . 11 Marian Simms 3 . Bad Governments Lose: Surely there is no mystery there . 33 Rodney Cavalier 4 . The Ideological Contest . 49 Carol Johnson Part 2. The Media and the Polls 5 . The New Media and the Campaign . 65 Peter John Chen 6 . To the Second Decimal Point: How the polls vied to predict the national vote, monitor the marginals and second-guess the Senate . 85 Murray Goot 7 . Debates, Town-Hall Meetings and Media Interviews . 111 Geoffrey Craig 8 . May the Less Threatening Leader of the Opposition Win: The cartoonists’ view of election 2010 . 121 Haydon Manning and Robert Phiddian v Part 3. The Parties’ Perspectives 9 . The 2010 Federal Election: The Liberal Party . 147 Brian Loughnane 10 . The Australian Labor Party . 155 Elias Hallaj 11 . The Greens . 163 Andrew Bartlett Part 4. The States and Regions 12 . New South Wales . 173 Elaine Thompson and Geoff Robinson 13 . Victoria . 183 Nick Economou 14 . South Australia . 191 Dean Jaensch 15 . The Northern Territory . 197 Dean Jaensch 16 . Tasmania . 201 Tony McCall 17 . The Australian Capital Territory . 211 Malcolm Mackerras 18 . Queensland . 217 Ian Ward 19 . Western Australia at the Polls: A case of resurgent regionalism . 231 Narelle Miragliotta and Campbell Sharman 20 . Rural and Regional Australia: The ultimate winners? . 239 Jennifer Curtin and Dennis Woodward vi Part 5. Policies and Issues 21 . Managing Gender: The 2010 federal election . 251 Marian Sawer 22 . Immigration Issues in the 2010 Federal Election . 267 James Jupp 23. The Influence of Unions and Business in the 2010 Federal Election: Claims of ‘slash and burn’ and ‘still no response and no answers’ . 279 John Wanna 24 . Environmental Issues and the 2010 Campaign . 291 Geordan Graetz and Haydon Manning 25 . Religion and the 2010 Election: Elephants in the room . 303 John Warhurst Part 6. Election Results 26 . The Results and the Pendulum . 315 Malcolm Mackerras 27 . Electoral Behaviour in the 2010 Australian Federal Election 341 Clive Bean and Ian McAllister 28 . Seventeen Days to Power: Making a minority government 357 Brian Costar vii Acknowledgments This project is the latest in a series of post-election workshops and books that emerged from the (then) Political Science Department in the Faculty of Arts at The Australian National University (ANU), commencing with the 1996 election workshop. The Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia has been a partner in this series since the 1998 election. The previous workshops have all resulted in publications: The Politics of Retribution: The 1996 federal election (Clive Bean, Scott Bennett, Marian Simms and John Warhurst [eds], Allen & Unwin, 1997); Howard’s Agenda: The 1998 Australian election (Marian Simms and John Warhurst [eds], University of Queensland Press, 2000); 2001: The centenary election (John Warhurst and Marian Simms [eds], University of Queensland Press, 2002); Mortgage Nation: The 2004 Australian election (Marian Simms and John Warhurst [eds], Australian Public Intellectuals Network, 2005); and a two- part special issue of Australian Cultural History (Marian Simms [ed.], 2009), Kevin07: The 2007 Australian election. The publications have been well reviewed by academics and well received by the general community. Influential writers such as Paul Kelly utilise the books as valuable sources for their interpretative histories of Australia. The purpose of these projects is to bring together a team of about 22 to 25 comprising academics and practitioners to present and debate their points of view about the national election. The unique value of the Canberra location is that it provides useful synergies between town and gown, and facilitates practitioners providing important data—for example, their own quantitative and qualitative survey research—and receiving feedback from academics about the relevance of party research in terms of intellectual agendas. Equally, academics benefit from learning about the internal decision-making processes of election campaigning, and from accessing some of the internal party research findings, which provide useful insights that are often beyond the scope of more cash-strapped academic research. Normally, workshops have been held six to eight weeks after the national election when memories are still fresh and some data are available from empirical surveys. The workshop and the book both include academics who are experts on the politics of their States; others who are leading experts on key interest groups and social movements, especially unions, business, migrants and women; writers on political leadership, political culture, campaigning, media—print, electronic and ‘new’; and opinion polls, and the Australian Election Study group. The team includes leading specialists—for example, Marian Sawer (ANU), James Jupp (ANU), Clive Bean (Queensland University of Technology), Ian McAllister (ANU), Murray Goot (Macquarie University), John Wanna (ANU) and ix Julia 2010: The caretaker election Malcolm Mackerras (Australian Catholic University), as well as emerging scholars such as Peter Chen (University of Sydney). Party directors or their nominees from all parties with parliamentary representation were invited. Their workshop session has previously been reported in the media. The two-day workshop to discuss the 2010 federal election was held at University House on 9 and 10 October 2010. Much of the lively discussion related to the role of the Labor Party’s new leadership team, Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan, reasons for the failure of the Rudd team to retain its previous popularity, and the remarkable leadership transition of 24 June, which saw Rudd deposed as leader and Prime Minister. The first afternoon session featured presentations by the Labor Party’s Elias Hallaj and by the Australian Greens Campaign Director, Ebony Green, and high-profile candidate (and former Australian Democrats Senator) Andrew Bartlett. Apologies were received from the Liberal Party Director and the Labor Party’s Secretary, Karl Bitar. A paper was received from the Liberals for inclusion in the edited volume. We are grateful to the practitioners for their continuing interest in this project and for the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia Workshop Program for their recognition of the importance of this work. Valuable assistance was also provided by Deakin University’s Areti Tsemelis, the Australia New Zealand School of Government’s Sam Vincent, and Kirsty McLaren of the Australian National University. This volume is dedicated to our friend and colleague Dr Dennis Woodward who passed away in May 2011 and whose knowledgeable and gentle presence will be sadly missed. Marian Simms, Deakin University John Wanna, ANU x Contributors Editors Marian Simms, Professor of Australian Studies, Deakin University John Wanna, Sir John Bunting Chair of Public Administration, Australian National University (ANU) Contributors Andrew Bartlett, Greens candidate and former Australian Democrats Senator Clive Bean, Professor of Political Science, Queensland University of Technology Rodney Cavalier, political commentator and former NSW Minister Peter John Chen, Lecturer in Politics, University of Sydney Brian Costar, Professor of Victorian Parliamentary Democracy, Swinburne University of Technology Geoffrey Craig, Associate Professor in Media, Film and Communication Studies, University of Otago Jennifer Curtin, Senior Lecturer in Political Studies, University of Auckland Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Monash University Murray Goot, Australian Research Council Australian Professorial Fellow and Distinguished Professor, Department of Modern History, Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University Geordan Graetz, Lecturer in Politics, Flinders University Dean Jaensch, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Flinders University Carol Johnson, Professor of Politics, University of Adelaide James Jupp, Director, Centre for Immigration and Multicultural Studies, ANU Elias Hallaj, ACT Branch Secretary, Australian Labor Party Brian Loughnane, Federal Director, Liberal Party Ian McAllister, Distinguished Professor of Political Science, ANU xi Julia 2010: