NASA-CR-198371 NASA Contractor Report 198371 19960002984 Space-Based Communications Infrastructure for Developing Countries Keith Barker, Carl Barnes, and K.M. Price Space Systems/Loral Palo Alto, California August 1995 Prepared for - .~ '/ Lewis Research Center . ....:.) Under Contract NAS3-25934 ,- '. ~- I~ I U' ~_; i hc~cARCH CENTER ~ - . J' r?Y NASA National AeronautJcs and ;:~, VIRGINIA •Space Administration 1111111111111 1111 1111111111 11111 111111/1/1111 NF01391 1IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIi~~I~~fllj~l~il~1111111111111111 3 1176014226014 NASA Contract No. NAS3-25934 NASA Contractor Report 198371 LORAL Technical Report No. SS/L-TR01060 Technical Support for Digital System Technology Development Final Report for Task Order 4 Space-Based Communications Infrastructure for Developing Countries Prepared by Space Systems/LORAL 3825 Fabian Way Palo Alto, CA 94303-4606 Program Manager: Kent M. Price Major Contributors: Keith Barker Carl Barnes Prepared for Lewis Research Center Under Contract NAS3-25934 August 1995 Table of Contents Table of Contents........................................................................................................... 1 List of Figures ................................................................................................................ vii L1st of Tables .................................................................................................................. ix List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................... xi Abstract........................................................................................................................... xvii 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Background................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Statement of Work ..................................................................................... 1-2 1.3 Organizahon of Report ............................................................................ 1-5 1.4 Summary of Results ................................................................................... 1-7 1.4.1 Market AnalyslS ......................................................................... 1-7 1.4.2 Technical Feasibility of NIl Augmentation via Satellites ...... 1-7 1.4.3 Specific Technology Assessments ............................................ 1-8 1.4.3 Financial Analysis ....................................................................... 1-11 1.4.4 Recommendations ...................................................................... 1-12 2. Role of Satellites in the NIl and GU ................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 2-1 2.2 Definition of NIl and GIl .......................................................................... 2-3 2.3 Roles of Satellites in the NIl and GIl ....................................................... 2-7 3. Case Study - China .............................................................................................. 3-1 3.1 Market Scope and Definition ................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Market Segmentation ................................................................................ 3-1 3.3 Market Demand Changes and Trends................................................... 3-2 3.3.1 Telecommunications Goals and Plans ..................................... 3-2 3.3.2 Current Progress Towards Goals ............................................ 3-3 3.3.3 Overall Characteristics of the Demand for Telecommunicahon Services ..................................................... 3-5 3 3.4 Demand for Satellites ................................................................. 3-7 3.3.5 Applications for Satellites .......................................................... 3-9 3.3.6 Obstacles to Progress .................................................................. 3-9 3.4 Survey of Chma's Satellites ...................................................................... 3-10 3.5 Market Share and Sales ............................................................................. 3-15 3.6 Conclusions ................................................................................................. 3-15 3.6.1 General Telecommunications Market ...................................... 3-15 3.6.2 Satellite Market Evolution ......................................................... 3-16 3.6.3 U. S. Market Share and Forecast ............................................... 3-17 4. Case Study - Brazil .............................................................................................. 4-1 4.1 Current Telecommunications Environment in Brazil ........................ ..4-1 4.1.1 Telephony (including cellular} ................................................ ..4-1 4.1.2 TV and Entertainment ................................................................ 4-2 4.1.3 Data Services................................................................................ 4-2 4.1.4 Advanced Services ...................................................................... 4-2 4.2 Trends in Telecommunications in Brazil ................................................ 4-3 4.2.1 Satellites........................................................................................ 4-4 4.2.2 Satellite Demand Forecast ......................................................... 4-6 4.3 Country Overview - Brazil ....................................................................... 4-8 4.3.1 Brazil's Economic Importance ................................................ ..4-8 4.3.2 General Background ................................................................... 4-8 4.3.3 History .......................................................................................... 4-11 4.3.4 Global Trade ................................................................................ 4-12 4.3.5 Trends in Industrial Development .......................................... .4-12 4.3.6 Brazil's Space Program ............................................................ ..4-14 4.3.7 Role of Government ................................................................... 4-14 4.3.8 Recent Government Actions .................................................... .4-14 4.3.9 1988 Constitution ........................................................................ 4-15 4.3.10 Marketing Considerations ........................................................ .4-16 4.4 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................4-19 5. Case Study - Mexico ............................................................................................ 5-1 5.1 Current Telecommunications Environment m Mexico ........................ 5-1 5.1.1 Telephony .................................................................................... 5-1 5.1.2 TV and Entertainment ................................................................ 5-2 5.1.3 Data Services................................................................................ 5-3 5.1.4 Advanced Services ...................................................................... 5-6 5.1.5 Fiber Optic Networks ................................................................. 5-6 5.1.6 Satellites ........................................................................................ 5-7 5.1.7 VSATs .......................................................................................... 5-12 5.2 Trends in Telecommunications in Mexico ............................................. 5-13 5.2.1 Overall Trends ............................................................................. 5-14 5.2.2 SatellIte Demand Forecast ......................................................... 5-14 5.2.3 Satellite Revenues ....................................................................... 5-14 5.3 Country Overview - Mexico ................................................................... .5-15 Ii 5.3.1 Mexico's Economic Importance ................................................ 5-15 5.3.2 General Background ................................................................... 5-16 5.3.3 History .......................................................................................... 5-19 5.3.4 Government ................................................................................. 5-19 5.3.5 Global Trade ................................................................................ 5-20 5.3.6 Trends in Industrial Development ........................................... 5-21 5.3.7 Currency Crisis, in '94-95 ........................................................... 5-23 5.4 Summary and ConclUSIOns ...................................................................... 5-24 6. Market Analysis for Developmg Countries ..................................................... 6-1 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 6-1 6.2 Definibon of Developing Countries ........................................................ 6-1 6.3 Forecast of Demand in Developing Countries ...................................... 6-2 6.3.1 Telecommurucations in Developing Countries ...................... 6-2 6.3.2 Telecommunications Demand