EARTH & SPACE-BASED POWER GENERATION SYSTEMS A COMPARISON STUDY A Study for ESA Advanced Concepts Team Contract No: 17682/03/NL/EC To ESTEC Final Report LBST Consortium January 2005 Contractors Volker Blandow, Patrick Schmidt, Werner Weindorf, Martin Zerta, Werner Zittel L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH Ottobrunn / Germany www.lbst.de Marco C Bernasconi MCB Consultants Dietikon / Switzerland Patrick Q Collins Space Future Consulting Northampton / UK www.spacefuture.com Thomas Nordmann, Thomas Vontobel TNC Consulting AG Erlenbach / Switzerland www.tnc.ch Joëlle Guillet Université de Neuchâtel Neuchâtel / Switzerland www.unine.ch EARTH AND SPACE-BASED POWER GENERATION SYSTEMS – A COMPARISON STUDY i Final Report CONTENTS OVERVIEW Contents overview............................................................................................................... i Contents............................................................................................................................. ii Acronyms and abbreviations..............................................................................................vii 0 Summary .................................................................................................................. 0-1 1 General................................................................................................................... 1-19 2 Solar technology..................................................................................................... 2-31 3 Space system architectures..................................................................................... 3-85 4 Potentials and systems aspects ............................................................................ 4-119 5 Comparison of base load scenarios (WP1) ........................................................... 5-143 6 Comparison of non-base load scenarios (WP2) .................................................... 6-181 7 Launch.................................................................................................................. 7-199 8 System combination (WP3) .................................................................................. 8-211 9 Energy payback times (WP4)................................................................................ 9-271 10 Reliability and risk discussion............................................................................. 10-353 11 Study conclusions............................................................................................... 11-384 12 Literature............................................................................................................ 12-398 Report Annex ii EARTH AND SPACE-BASED POWER GENERATION SYSTEMS – A COMPARISON STUDY Final Report CONTENTS Contents overview............................................................................................................... i Contents............................................................................................................................. ii Acronyms and abbreviations..............................................................................................vii 0 Summary .................................................................................................................. 0-1 1 General................................................................................................................... 1-19 1.1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 1-19 1.2 Driving forces ............................................................................................... 1-21 1.3 Approach and methodology ......................................................................... 1-25 1.4 Basic definitions and assumptions................................................................ 1-26 1.5 Data validity and certainty............................................................................ 1-28 1.6 Study scope / scenario design....................................................................... 1-28 2 Solar technology..................................................................................................... 2-31 2.1 Photovoltaics (PV) ........................................................................................ 2-31 2.1.1 Technologies.................................................................................. 2-32 2.1.2 System design................................................................................ 2-47 2.1.3 Concentrating photovoltaic systems.............................................. 2-49 2.1.4 Economics ..................................................................................... 2-50 2.2 Solar thermal (SOT) power plants................................................................. 2-64 2.2.1 Technologies.................................................................................. 2-64 2.2.2 Selected Technologies ................................................................... 2-72 2.2.3 Learning curves.............................................................................. 2-82 3 Space system architectures..................................................................................... 3-85 3.1 Previous studies and concepts...................................................................... 3-85 3.1.1 Early work...................................................................................... 3-85 3.1.2 Recent and current activities ......................................................... 3-91 3.2 Selected reference concepts.......................................................................... 3-92 3.2.1 MEO Sun Tower as reference......................................................... 3-93 EARTH AND SPACE-BASED POWER GENERATION SYSTEMS – A COMPARISON STUDY iii Final Report 3.2.2 Solar Disk as reference................................................................... 3-96 3.2.3 Assumptions for power transmission via microwave..................... 3-98 3.3 Flexible operation of solar power satellites and rectennae......................... 3-100 3.3.1 De-coupled satellite and rectenna operation............................... 3-102 3.3.2 Shifting power delivery between multiple rectennae................... 3-109 3.3.3 De-coupled rectenna and satellite operating schedules............... 3-111 3.4 Space-based contribution to solar power scenario..................................... 3-112 3.4.1 Development of low-cost launch system ..................................... 3-113 3.4.2 Development of space-based solar power pilot plant.................. 3-114 3.4.3 Microwave power transmission system (MPTS) R&D................... 3-116 3.4.4 Critical path to space-based solar power supply.......................... 3-117 4 Potentials and systems aspects ............................................................................ 4-119 4.1 Geographical scope.................................................................................... 4-119 4.2 Solar potentials........................................................................................... 4-119 4.3 European grid............................................................................................. 4-120 4.3.1 Siting assumptions....................................................................... 4-122 4.3.2 Grid limitations............................................................................ 4-124 4.3.3 Power transmission ..................................................................... 4-124 4.3.4 Power demand............................................................................. 4-126 4.4 Energy storage............................................................................................ 4-132 4.4.1 Energy storage systems ............................................................... 4-132 4.4.2 Selected concepts ........................................................................ 4-134 4.5 Land use ..................................................................................................... 4-138 4.6 Decommissioning and recycling ................................................................. 4-138 4.6.1 Terrestrial solar power systems ................................................... 4-138 4.6.2 Space solar power systems.......................................................... 4-141 5 Comparison of base load scenarios (WP1) ........................................................... 5-143 5.1 Terrestrial concepts..................................................................................... 5-144 5.1.1 Selected concepts ........................................................................ 5-144 5.1.2 Scenario data............................................................................... 5-150 iv EARTH AND SPACE-BASED POWER GENERATION SYSTEMS – A COMPARISON STUDY Final Report 5.1.3 Costs............................................................................................ 5-156 5.2 Space concepts........................................................................................... 5-162 5.2.1 Selected concepts ........................................................................ 5-162 5.2.2 Scenario refence systems............................................................. 5-166 5.2.3 Costs............................................................................................ 5-168 5.3 Cost comparison........................................................................................