Regehr DETERRENCE, ARMS CONTROL, NAADSN Engage Series DETERRENCE, ARMS CONTROL, AND COOPERATIVE SECURITY AND Ernie Regehr COOPERATIVE SECURITY DETERRENCE, ARMS CONTROL, AND COOPERATIVE SECURITY Selected Writings on Arctic Security © Ernie Regehr, 2020 North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) / Réseau sur la défense et la sécurité nord-américanes et arctiques (RDSNAA) c/o School for the Study of Canada Trent University Peterborough, Ontario, Canada K9J 7B8 All rights reserved. LIBRARY AND ARCHIVES CANADA CATALOGUING IN PUBLICATION Deterrence, Arms Control, and Cooperative Security: Selected Writings on Arctic Security / Ernie Regehr. (NAADSN Engage Series no. 1 / RDSNAA série d’engage no. 1) Published in print and electronic formats. ISBN: 978-1-989811-06-1 (e-book) 978-1-989811-07-8 (print) 1. Canada—Arctic Security. 2. Arctic regions—Defence and Security. 3. Arms Control and Disarmament—Canada. 4. Nuclear arms control—Arctic regions. 5. Arctic regions—Strategic aspects. I. Regehr, Ernie, author II. Title: Deterrence, Arms Control, and Cooperative Security: Selected Writings on Arctic Security. III. Series: NAADSN Engage Series / RDSNAA série d’engage; no. 1 Designer and layout: P. Whitney Lackenbauer Cover design: Jennifer Arthur-Lackenbauer Cover images: P. Whitney Lackenbauer Distributed by the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) Distribué par le Réseau sur la défense et la sécurité nord-américanes et arctiques (RDSNAA) Deterrence, Arms Control, and Cooperative Security Selected Writings on Arctic Security Ernie Regehr Senior Fellow in Arctic Security and Defence, The Simons Foundation Canada Network Member, NAADSN Table of Contents FOREWORD BY P. WHITNEY LACKENBAUER ............................................ i Introduction ................................................................................................................... iv 1. Replacing The North Warning System .................................................................... 1 2. The North Warning System (NWS) and “What We Cannot Defeat” ................ 9 3. America’s Arctic Security Strategy ......................................................................... 18 4. Nuclear Submarines in the Arctic .......................................................................... 31 5. Conjuring Chinese Nuclear Weapons Submarines in the Arctic ...................... 45 6. Russia, NATO, and Baltic Vulnerability ............................................................... 53 7. Gunboat Diplomacy to Air Power Diplomacy ..................................................... 61 8. Cooperative Security and Denuclearizing the Arctic .......................................... 65 9. Re-Visiting Missile Defence Cooperation ............................................................. 89 10. The “Rogue” Missile Threat: Getting from BMD to NPT ................................ 94 11. Cruise Missiles: When Defence is Not an Option ...........................................104 12. Arctic Security and the Canadian Defence Policy Statement .........................113 13. From Defending to Exercising Arctic Sovereignty ..........................................127 14. Operation Nanook 2016 and DND Aid to Civil Authorities .........................137 15. The Ilulissat Declaration: Ten Years Later ........................................................147 16. Close Encounters with the Russian Military .....................................................156 17. Shielding the Arctic from NATO’s Return to Territorial Defence ................166 18. NATO’s Brussels Summit and the Arctic ..........................................................177 19. Arctic Coast Guard Forum – Cooperative Security under Construction.....184 20. Can a Fisheries Agreement Help Forestall Militarization? .............................189 21. Pan-Arctic Military Cooperation .......................................................................194 Index ............................................................................................................................204 Foreword Ernie Regehr, a distinguished peace researcher and commentator, has been shaping Canadian discussions on security and disarmament for decades. When he was invested into the Order of Canada in 2004, the citation aptly described him as: one of Canada's most prominent and respected voices on international disarmament and peace. Executive Director and co- founder of Project Ploughshares, Ernie Regehr is known for his sound judgment, balanced views and integrity. Canadian and foreign governments as well as the United Nations call upon him as an expert on disarmament. Organizations such as the World Council of Churches, the Canadian Council for International Cooperation and the Africa Peace Forum also benefit from his knowledge and insight. A dedicated humanitarian, he has made a significant contribution to Canada's international reputation as a leader in peacemaking.1 Amongst his many awards, he became the 26th recipient of the Pearson Peace Medal in 2011. He has served as a representative and expert advisor on numerous Government of Canada delegations to multilateral disarmament forums, has traveled frequently to conflict zones, contributed to Track II diplomacy efforts, and as former Commissioner of the World Council of Churches Commission on International Affairs was active in developing that organization’s position on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) as adopted at the 2006 World Assembly. He is a tireless advocate for a just and peaceful global community, and longstanding proponent of the need to reverse the militarization of the Arctic and promote a zone of peaceful cooperation. As the Senior Fellow in Arctic Security and Defence at the Simons Foundation Canada, Ernie has contributed an ongoing series of Arctic Security Briefing Papers that offer critical reflections on military policies and practices in the region. He emphasizes that “Arctic ‘security’ is ultimately about the safety and well-being of the people of the Arctic – a human security agenda that necessarily engages a broad range of social and economic conditions and policies.” By focusing on military aspects of this broader security agenda in the Arctic, he poses the overarching question: “What are and should be the roles, and limits, of military forces in supporting human security, in strengthening the rule of law nationally and internationally, and in promoting efforts towards a cooperative security regime within the Arctic region?”2 His reflections, grounded in decades of ii Lackenbauer careful observation and analysis of the evolving regional security environment, offer a robust and nuanced understanding of international, regional, and domestic dynamics and drivers that shape contemporary Arctic defence and security and the academic and policy debates about it. The North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) Engage series is intended to inspire timely discussion on topics related to North American and Arctic defence, security, and safety issues. The various chapters in this important book provide critical reflections on the security implications of technology and climate change, international strategic drivers (such as evolving Russian and Chinese Arctic interests), and the roles of military institutions such as NORAD and NATO. Arctic and North American defence cannot be isolated from global dynamics, and Ernie’s clear and poignant analysis of the capabilities and intentions of Arctic and non-Arctic states lays an important foundation for rational, evidence-based debate and discussion. Many chapters grapple with the defence of North America, and what roles and postures the Canadian Armed Forces should adopt (and avoid) in the face of renewed strategic competition, emerging technologies, and shifting defence priorities. If Canada is to remain strong at home and secure in North America, analysis of new threat vectors must be matched by a concerted effort to educate Canadians and Americans about NORAD and the multifaceted solutions needed to address complex security challenges. The chapters in this book go a long way towards doing so, critically examining actions and proposed plans related to the evolution of continental defence, NORAD modernization and the future of the North Warning System, missile defence, anti-submarine warfare, and many other topics. By adopting a nuanced and multifaceted definition of security, chapters also provide sober explanations of dual-use infrastructure and the military’s responsibilities for search and rescue, response to major transportation and environmental disasters, and recovery when communities lose essential services. Consistent with his longstanding advocacy for disarmament and peace, Ernie explains that “the challenge is to advance the kinds of national policies and international rules and initiatives that honor, in the context of the Arctic, the UN Charter’s Article 26 pledge to ‘promote the establishment and maintenance of international peace and security with the least diversion for armaments of the world’s human and economic resources.’”3 His writings promote a sophisticated understanding of deterrence and strategic stability, and why arms control measures – both Arctic-specific and global – remain Foreword iii an important consideration for Canadian defence policymaking. In his 1989 articulation of “A Framework for Canadian Security Policy in the Arctic” (written when increasing submarine activities, cruise missiles, and