ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SCIENCE ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY A DECISION SUPPORT MODEL TO IMPROVE NAVIGATIONAL SAFETY IN PORT AREAS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE PORT OF HAYDARPAŞA ZONE Ph.D THESIS Ali Atıl TALAY Department of Maritime Transportation Engineering Maritime Transportation Engineering Programme OCTOBER 2012 ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SCIENCE ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY A DECISION SUPPORT MODEL TO IMPROVE NAVIGATIONAL SAFETY IN PORT AREAS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE PORT OF HAYDARPAŞA ZONE Ph.D THESIS Ali Atıl TALAY (512042001) Department of Maritime Transportation Engineering Maritime Transportation Engineering Programme Thesis Advisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ata BİLGİLİ Co-advisor: Assis. Prof. Dr. Cemil YURTÖREN OCTOBER 2012 İSTANBUL TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ FEN BİLİMLERİ ENSTİTÜSÜ LİMAN BÖLGELERİNDEKİ SEYİR GÜVENLİĞİNİ GELİŞTİRMEK İÇİN OLUŞTURULAN BİR KARAR DESTEK MODELİNİN HAYDARPAŞA LİMAN BÖLGESİ UYGULAMASI DOKTORA TEZİ Ali Atıl TALAY (512042001) Deniz Ulaştırma Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalı Deniz Ulaştırma Mühendisliği Programı Tez Danışmanı: Doç. Dr. Ata BİLGİLİ Eşdanışman: Yrd . Doç . Dr. Cemil YURTÖREN EKİM 2012 Ali Atıl Talay, a Ph.D. student of ITU Institute of Science and Technology, student ID 512042001, successfully defended the thesis entitled “A DECISION SUPPORT MODEL TO IMPROVE NAVIGATIONAL SAFETY IN PORT AREAS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE PORT OF HAYDARPAŞA ZONE”, which he prepared after fulfilling the requirements specified in the associated legislations, before the jury whose signatures are below. Thesis Advisor : Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ata BİLGİLİ .............................. İstanbul Technical University Co-advisor : Assis. Prof.Dr. Cemil YURTÖREN .............................. İstanbul Technical University yJury Members : Prof. Dr. Nil GÜLER ............................. İstanbul Technical University Yıldız Technical University Prof. Dr. Svein KRISTIANSEN .............................. Norwegian University of Science and Technology Prof. Dr. Orhan YENİGÜN .............................. Boğaziçi University Prof. Dr. Cem GAZİOĞLU .............................. İstanbul University Assoc. Prof. Dr. Cengiz DENİZ .............................. Istanbul Technical University Date of Submission : 09 July 2012 Date of Defense : 17 October 2012 v vi FOREWORD Strait of Istanbul has a critic importance for being the only way for Black Sea coasted countries to make sea transportation and maritime trading to worldwide. The fairway divides a metropolitan in to two side from the middle city which has a population more than 13 million. Istanbul Strait is a specific fairway which has a narrow width between similar navigation areas, has difficulties for navigation due to sharp turns, shallowness and its own special currents. Especially, Port of Haydarpaşa Zone which located in the southern entrance of the strait is one of the most risky wateway due to traffic density and external conditions in the world. In this study, marine accidents in the Port of Haydarpaşa Zone and the nature of accidents are investigated by the information of historical accidents and by consulting regional experts. The most risky situations has been studied to determine in the occurrence of accidents. There are many individuals who contributed to production of this thesis through their support and advices. Without their care and consideration this thesis would likely have not matured. I am thankful to my advisor Assoc.Prof.Dr. Ata Bilgili and my co-advisor Assis. Prof. Dr. Cemil Yurtören for their patience and careful supervision. I am indebted to Prof.Dr. Svein Kristiansen for inviting me Norwegian University Science and Tchnology (NTNU), and giving highly appreciated advice. It has been both privilege and pleasure to meet with a supportive, enthusiastic and inspiring person like him. I am thankful to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Cengiz Deniz for his support and advices. I am beholden to, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Serdar Kum, Assis. Prof. Dr. Volkan Aydoğdu and Mr. Okan Duru. They made great contributions to my technical knowledge by teaching and sharing their experience and intelligence. I am thankful to Mr. Yalçın Durmuşoğlu for his psychological support and advices. I have been fortunate to have the support of my spouse Nilüfer Talay. I am grateful also for her patience shown to me during my thesis period. I will never forget her sacrifices for this difficult and tiring period. I am beholden to have support of my family throughout not only for this thesis but entire my life. Especially, I am thankful to my mother Neşe Talay, my father Atilla Talay, my brother Yücel Talay and my grandmother Suzan Hergüner who have never hesistated to make sacrifices for the sake of my education life. October 2012 Ali Atıl TALAY vii viii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page FOREWORD ............................................................................................................ vii TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................... ix ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................. xiii LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................... xv LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................. xviii SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. xx ÖZET ....................................................................................................................... xxii 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Purpose of Research ........................................................................................... 1 1.2 Importance of the Research ................................................................................ 1 1.3 Description of the Marine Traffic and Environment in the Research Area ....... 4 1.3.1 General introduction of the straits and dangers .......................................... 4 1.3.2 Information about the research area .......................................................... 10 1.3.3 Natural structure of the research area ....................................................... 12 1.3.4 Current and wind ....................................................................................... 12 1.3.5 Visibility .................................................................................................... 14 1.3.6 Marine traffic in the research area ............................................................ 14 1.3.6.1 Transit vessels vs. stop-over vessels (other traffic) ........................... 15 1.3.6.2 Density of local traffic ....................................................................... 16 City lines transportation ............................................................................. 17 Istanbul sea buses corporation (IDO) ......................................................... 17 Local passenger boats ................................................................................ 17 1.3.7 Marine traffic management and regulations ............................................. 18 1.3.7.1 Vessel traffic services (VTS) ............................................................. 18 Information services (INS) ......................................................................... 19 Traffic organization service (TOS) ............................................................ 19 Navigational assistance service (NAS) ...................................................... 19 1.4 Statistical analysis of the accidents occurred in the Haydarpaşa Port Zone .... 21 1.4.1 Description of the historical accident database in the research area ......... 21 1.4.1.1 Year, month, and hour ........................................................................ 22 1.4.1.2 Waterway ........................................................................................... 22 1.4.1.3 Name, type, and gross tonnage of the ship......................................... 23 1.4.1.4 Type of accident ................................................................................. 23 1.4.1.5 External conditions ............................................................................ 24 1.4.1.6 Technical failure................................................................................. 25 1.4.1.7 Unsafe acts of ship ............................................................................. 26 1.4.1.8 Preconditions ...................................................................................... 27 1.4.1.9 Hazardous materials ........................................................................... 28 1.4.1.10 Vessel damage .................................................................................. 28 1.4.1.11 Human fatalities or injuries .............................................................. 29 ix 1.4.1.12 Infrastructure damage ....................................................................... 29 1.4.2 Stastical analysis of the accidents during the period 1991-2010 .............. 29 1.4.2.1 Distribution of accidents yearly, monthly, and hourly ....................... 29 1.4.2.2 Distribution of accidents due to restricted searoom ........................... 31 1.4.2.3 Distribution of accidents by type ....................................................... 32 1.4.2.4 Distribution