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The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. ORNL/TM-2010/46 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study Final Report July 2010 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 managed by UT-BATTELLE, LLC for the U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY under contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 This page intentionally left blank. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Value Proposition Study is a collaborative effort between Sentech, Inc., Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), General Electric (GE) Global Research, Ohio State University Center for Automotive Research (OSU CAR), and Taratec Corporation. The following individuals from these organizations are among those who contributed throughout the duration of this study: Sentech, Inc. Taratec Corporation Tim P. Cleary* Chuck Meadow Shaun C. Hinds Howard Mueller Lawrence C. Markel Ed Ungar* Dr. Ralph McGill* Perry Jones GE Global Research Karen G. Sikes* Herman Wiegman Richard E. Ziegler Consultant ORNL Thomas Gross* Robert C. DeVault Dr. David L. Greene EPRI Stanton W. Hadley* Daniel Brooks Mitchell Olszewski David E. Smith Argonne National Laboratory Richard L. Smith Andrew Burnham OSU CAR Dr. Vincenzo Marano* *Co-authors Members of the PHEV Value Proposition Study’s Guidance & Evaluation Committee also provided valuable insights and feedback throughout the study. A listing of the committee’s members can be found at http://www.sentech.org/phev/pdfs/Guidance_Committee.pdf. PHEV Value Proposition Study – Final Report Draft / July 2010 i This page intentionally left blank. ii PHEV Value Proposition Study – Final Report Draft / July 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................................................. X FACT SHEET ................................................................................................................................................... XIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. ............................................................................................................................. XXIV FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS .......................................................................................................... XXIX 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2. OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3. PROJECT OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.3.1. Value Proposition Study – Phase 1 .......................................................................................................... 2 1.3.2. Market Introduction Study ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.3.3. Value Proposition Study – Phase 2 .......................................................................................................... 3 2. INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT ............................................................................................................................ 4 2.1. SUPPORTIVE POLICIES – EXISTING AND POTENTIAL ............................................................................................... 4 2.2. PHEV DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION PLANS ................................................................................................... 4 2.3. PLANNING FOR PHEVS BY ELECTRIC UTILITIES .................................................................................................... 7 3. APPROACH ............................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1. PHEV VALUE PROPOSITION WORKSHOP ............................................................................................................. 8 3.2. GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................................................................ 10 3.2.1. Market and Regulatory .......................................................................................................................... 10 3.2.2. Vehicle .................................................................................................................................................. 11 3.2.3. Charging Behavior / Infrastructure Capabilities ..................................................................................... 11 3.3. MODELING REQUIREMENTS ............................................................................................................................. 12 3.3.1. Vehicle Operation ................................................................................................................................. 12 3.3.2. Battery Sizing ....................................................................................................................................... 13 3.3.3. Battery End-of-Life Value ...................................................................................................................... 14 3.3.4. Grid Impact ........................................................................................................................................... 14 3.3.5. Environmental Impact ........................................................................................................................... 14 3.4. DATA COLLECTION ........................................................................................................................................ 17 3.5. SELECTION OF CASE STUDIES ......................................................................................................................... 20 3.5.1. Southern California ............................................................................................................................... 20 3.5.2. ECAR / Cleveland, Ohio ......................................................................................................................... 21 3.6. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................... 22 4. CASE STUDY RESULTS ........................................................................................................................ 23 4.1. VEHICLE OWNERSHIP COSTS AND BENEFITS ...................................................................................................... 23 4.1.1. Vehicle Purchase Costs ........................................................................................................................ 23 4.1.2. Vehicle Operating Costs........................................................................................................................ 28 4.1.3. Vehicle End-of-Life Value ...................................................................................................................... 35 4.1.4. “Convenience” Benefits ........................................................................................................................ 35 4.2. BENEFITS TO COMMERCIAL BUILDING OWNERS WITH V2B .................................................................................... 37 4.3. IMPACTS OF PHEVS ON ELECTRIC UTILITIES ...................................................................................................... 40 4.3.1. Southern California