LATIN AMERICA: POLITICS, ECONOMY AND SOCIETY IN 2013 BARCELONA BEIJING BOGOTA BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBON MADRID MEXICO PANAMA QUITO RIO DE JANEIRO SÃO PAULO SANTO DOMINGO CONTENTS Prologue 3 Political and electoral panorama in Latin America (2013-2016) The Latin America of the three “Cs”: Continuism, Centrism and middle Classes 5 Audiovisual Overview of Latin America Concentration and technological renewal 16 The protests are here to stay: Social change and mobilisation of citizens in Latin America 35 Overview of Latin American press The pre-Internet boom 51 The Latin American radio panorama The future of radio in Latin America: a new revival 67 LLORENTE & CUENCA 79 Prologue Latin America is currently going through a good period accompanied by the development and consolidation of the new emerging middle classes. These are demanding that their governments provide the guarantees and means to effectively exercise their rights and they want their share of the gains from economic progress. Although it is common to talk about Latin America as if it were a homogeneous region in terms of its political, economic and social situation, the reality is that this region is anything but homoge- neous. The different economic and social situations, the distinct political junctures and the diverse operating environments for com- panies and financial institutions are, among others, factors that lead to the diversity that characterises Latin American countries. That is why we need to look more closely at Latin America, exami- ning each of the features that make these countries unique. In all of this, we need to take into account the creation of new blocks that, like the Pacific Alliance, have an impact on the current situation and influence future expectations in terms of the political and economic development of the region, as well as shaping the strategic international situation. The next few years will be decisive for the future of the region, firstly given the “electoral rally” that will take place between now and 2016, which will determine the new political panorama of the region. Given current trends, it seems that the political situation in Latin America over the next three years will be marked by con- tinuity, centrism and the growing importance of the middle class. In addition, we are also seeing in Latin America a revolution in the emergence and use of the Information and Communication Techno- logies (ICTs) and this is proving to be a catalyst for communication becoming a key factor in the cultural development and economic growth of the nations. So, and in contrast to the crisis in the press in Europe and the Uni- ted Sates, Latin America is currently experiencing a boom in the readership of the written press. Similarly, the audiovisual sector in Latin America has not remai- ned on the margin of these transformations and it has followed the trends being seen globally. Phenomena such as technological deve- lopment, the increase in the emerging classes and their purchasing power and the fragmentation of the markets are what characterise the audiovisual media sector in the region today. The same is true for radio. Thanks to the growth of the new technolo- gies, the radio sector in Latin America is experiencing a rejuvenation which is also leading to the appearance of new radio stations, such as those broadcasting over the Internet. Once again, the fragmen- ted nature of the audience is leading to new strategies for broad- casting content. All of these processes are taking place in an environment dominated by the development of the emerging classes, who have become the dri- ving force behind social change on the continent and who, in some ca- ses, are making their voices heard in protest against the lack of public services and infrastructures which, in their view, should be provided by the state. To date the governments have proved themselves incapable of channelling these collective demands and responding to them. In short, Latin America is currently experiencing a period of change and the only way to understand this reality is to look at the region from a multidisciplinary perspective. This summary includes some of the decisive political, economic and social issues affecting Latin America in 2013. We must be aware of these, and the differences between the countries, if we hope to gain a thorough understanding of this region. José Antonio Llorente Founding Partner and Chairman Political and electoral panorama in Latin America (2013-2016) The Latin America of the three “Cs”: Continuism, Centrism and middle Classes Madrid, june 2013 POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016) THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES 1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION 2. DEVELOPMENT 3. RE-ELECTIONIST TRENDS IN THE Between 2013 and 2016 most of the countries in Latin America will REGION (2013-16) renew their executive and legislature. This electoral “rally” will be a 4. CONCLUSIONS good time to assess the political dynamics of the region, analysing in particular two phenomena: • Discover the predominant political tendency in the region, after the “sway to the left” between 2002 and 2008 and the revival of the centre right candidates between 2009 and 2012. • And study re-electionism as a regional phenomenon that reveals a growing hyper-presidentialism in most Latin America countries. The elections in Ecuador in February 2013 and in Paraguay and Venezuela in April marked the beginning of a new Latin American election cycle that will end in 2016, by which time 17 of the 18 countries will have held their presidential elections (Mexico is the only country with elections after that year, in 2018). It is a decisive four-year period, therefore, during which we will find out how strong the “XXI century socialism” is without Hugo Chávez, observe the progress of the reformist left in South America and check the strength of the centre right options in Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Chile. Ww uphold in this report that politics in Latin America is currently marked by three “Cs”: the predominance of centrist political outlooks (centre left and centre right) combined with the stagnation of more radical positions; the continuism of governments in power thanks to the excellent economic situation and constant growth since 2003 – except only in 2009-; and the emergence of new, heterogeneous middle classes in the region with greater purchasing power (and borrowing capacity), which also explains the continuist tendency and centrist positions. ELECTION CALENDAR 2013-16 2013 Presidential elections in Ecuador, Paraguay and Venezuela (already held in these three countries) and in Honduras and Chile 2014 Presidential elections in Brazil, Colombia, Bolivia, Uruguay, El Salvador, Panama and Costa Rica 2015 Presidential elections in Argentina, Guatemala and Nicaragua 2016 Presidential elections in Peru and the Dominican Republic 6 POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016) THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES 2. DEVELOPMENT Kirchner in Argentina (2003), Tabaré Vázquez in Uruguay To explain that shift towards the (2005), Evo Morales in Bolivia centre in the region, we must first (2005), Michelle Bachelet in analyse (I) the different tendencies Chile (2006), Rafael Correa in and (II) the political dynamics Ecuador (2006), Daniel Ortega in present in Latin America. Nicaragua (2006), Álvaro Colom in Guatemala (2007), Cristina Then, in the third part of this Kirchner in Argentina in 2007, “There are three analysis, we will study the “re- Fernando Lugo in Paraguay political and electoral election fever” in Latin America. (2008) and Mauricio Funes in El Salvador (2009). tendencies in Latin I The three major political America. At different tendencies in Latin America However, Latin America did not times some hold more experience a shift to the left Through the elections due to be before, nor is it experiencing weight than others, held in the coming four years a shift to the right now. The but all three are we will be able to see which of situation is much more complex always present” the three major tendencies in and varied, just as the region is. the region currently holds the greatest weight. The prevailing There are three political and idea up to now has been that election tendencies in Latin Latin America shifted either to America. At different times some the left (2002-2008) or to the hold more weight than others, but right (2009-2012). At present, all three are always present: however, the political bias is actually more complex and much • The consolidation of populist more heterogeneous. nationalism The victory of Sebastián Piñera “XXI-century socialism”, in the second round of the 2010 also known as “Chavism” or presidential elections in Chile “Bolivarianism”, is actually appeared to confirm Álvaro Vargas authoritarian, statist, Llosa’s theory of a shift to the populist nationalism. Chávez right in Latin America (with the started that tendency off in victories of Ricardo Martinelli in 1998 and after upholding it Panama, Porfirio Lobo in Honduras alone until 2005 (supported and Piñera in Chile). exclusively by Fidel Castro en Cuba) he was then backed This was a turnaround from the by new allies such as Evo previous tendency, prevailing Morales, Rafael Correa and since the middle of the last Daniel Ortega. decade, when people talked of the “sway to the left” 2009 consolidated the in the region following the populist-nationalism leaders victories of Hugo Chávez in in power: Hugo Chávez won Venezuela (1998), Lula da Silva the February referendum in Brazil (2002/2006), Néstor allowing him to opt for re- 7 POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016) THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES election indefinitely; Rafael of a “sway to the left”, Correa was re-elected in the as was the case a decade April 2009 elections; and Evo ago, over-simplified the Morales won the Presidential situation, lumping together elections in Bolivia in very different politics such December of that year.