Document of The World Bank FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY i}1t 2 Get -Ko Public Disclosure Authorized R ort Nio. 5570-KD STAFF APPRISAL REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized KOREA SEOUL-BUSANCORRIDOR PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized April 29, 1985 Public Disclosure Authorized Transportation Division Projects Department East Asia and Pacific l aonal Office This document has a resticted distibution and may be used by reciiets only in the performace of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be diselosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS US$1 = W 860 (as of April 1985) US$1.16 = W 1000 US$1 million = W 860 million US$1,162 = W I million FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 meter (m) = 3.2808 feet (ft) 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62.mile (mi) I square kilometer (km2) = 0.3861 square miles (sq mi) 1 hectare (ha) = 0.01 km2 = 2.4711 acres (ac) 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds (lbs) I metric ton Cm ton) = 2.204.6226 pounds (lbs) 1.1023 short tons (sh tons or 2,000 lbs) 0.9842 long tons (Ig ton or 2,240 lbs) PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONSAND ACRONYMSUSED BPR - Bureau of Public Roads CTC - Centralized Traffic Control EPB - Economic Planning Board GOK - Government of Korea KEC - Korea Highway Corporation KHPA - Korea Maritime and Ports Authority KNR - Korean National Railroad MOC - Ministry of Construction HOER - Ministry of Energy and Resources MOF - Ministry of Finance MOHA - Ministry of Home Affairs MOT - Ministry of Transportation SMESRS - Seoul Metropolitan Electric Suburban Rail System TCC - Transport Coordination Committee - ± - 101FOOFFCIL USI ONLY KOREAL SEOUL-BUSANCORRIDOR PROJECT Table of Contents Page No. I. TRANSPORT SECTOR ................................................ 1 A. Geographic and Economic Setting ............................ ,1 B. The Transport System ................................. ... 1 C. Transport Sector Objectives and Issues in the 1980s ........ 3 D. Bank's Role...................... ... 4 II. RAILWAY SUBSECIOR. .... .........*. 5 A. KNR Organization and Management ... ......................... 5 B. Staffing and Training . ............................. 5 C. Accounting and Auditing . ................. 6 D. Railwayfacilities . ......... 6 E. Traffic ............................................... ............ 7 F. Investment Plan...... ....... * ...... ........ 7 C. Tariffs .........................................&................. 7 III. THE SEOUL-BUSAN CORRIDOR ......... ... ................. 8 A. General EconomicSituation ....... ................. 8 B. Traffic .. .............. a...* 9 C. The Railway Line . ......... ..... 10 IV. THE PROJECT ............................ ..... 13 A. Project ObjectLves ...................... 13 B. Project Scope and Description ............................. 13 C. Cost Estimates and Financing.................. ......*&*V.. 15 D. Project Implementation and Procurement ............-......... 16 E. Disbursement ...... ......... ........ ... 17 F. Environment ...................... _ _ 18 V. ECONOMIC EVALUATION . ...... ..... aa... 19 A. Traffic and Capacity ..... ... ........ 19 B. Economic Rate of Return.......... .................. ...... 19 C. Sensitivity and Risks............. ........... ... 20 This report is based on the findings of a February 1985 appraisal mission to Korea comprising Messrs. A. F. Ballereau (Economist) and J. Taylor (Consultant). Messrs. B. K. Thomas (Financial Analyst), J. !enny (Economist) and E. Karman (Engineer) also contributed to the report. MIdo s thas a i'ats of thwofiddub t outlmats dmbeclskdwbaWofBank au1nao Page No. VI. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ............... ......... ........ .............. 22 A. Past ResuLts and Present Financial Position................ 22 B. Future Financial Perforuance .............. * .................. 23 VII. AGREEMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..... .................... ..... 26 ANNEXES 1. Past Five-Year Transport Development Plans and Bank's Investment (1962-81) 2. Issues in the Transport Sector 3. Proposed Signalling Project 4. Selected Documents in Project File TABLES 1.1 Growth Trend of Domestic Freight Traffic (1961-82) 1.2 Growth Trend of Domestic Passenger Traffic (1961-82) 1.3 Fifth Plan Forecast of Domestic Passenger Tran8sport (1980486) 1.4 Fifth Plan Forecast of Domestic Freight Transport (1980-86) 1.5 Comparison of Investment Plans (1977-81 and 1982-86) 2.1 KNR Intercity Passenger Traffic: 1966-84 Actual and 1985/86 Forecast 2.2 KNR Long-Distance Intercity Passenger Traffic by Type of Service: 1971-84 Actual and 1985/86 Forecast 2.3 KNR Seoul Urban (SMESRS) Passenger Traffic: 1971-84 Actual and 1985186 Forecast 2.4 KNR Freight Traffic: 1966-84 Actual and 1985/86 Forecast 2.5 KNR Traffic Forecast (1986-1991) 3.1 Gyeongbu Line Passenger Traffic (1974-83) in Thousand 3.2 Gyeongbu Line Passenger Traffic (1974-83) in Pass-Km 3.3 Gyeongbu Line Passenger Traffic (1974-83) Average Distance 3.4 Gyeongbu Line Freight Traffic (1974-83) 4.1 Signalling Component: List of Goods 4.2 Project Composition and Cost Estimates 4.3 Project Implementation Schedule 4.4 Cumulative Disbursement Schedule 5.1 Number of Trains Per Day on Gyeongbu Line by Section and Forecast for 1986-96 5.2 Traffic Projection and Train Line Capacity with and without Signalling Overhaul 5.3 Traffic Projection and Train Line Capacity with Capacity Increase vs Overhaul 5.4 Costs-BenefitsAnalysis for Signalling Overhaul Between Suwe3n-Daegu 5.5 Costs-BenefitsAnalysis for Capacity Increase Between Suveon-Daegu 5.6 Costs-BenefitsAnalysis for Signalling Overhaul and Capacity Increase Between Suweon-Daegu 6.1 Assumption for the Financial Projections 6.2 KNR Income Statements 6.3 KKR Source and Use of Funds 6.4 KNR Balance Sheet: 1981-84 Actual and 1985-90 Forecast - iii - CHART 1. Korea National Railways (KNR): WB 24503 tAPS IBRD Korea Tr4nsport Network: 13133R1 IBRD Korea Railway Network: 18758 - iv - KOREA SEOUL - BUSANCORRIDOR PROJECT Loan and Project Summary Borrower: Republic of Korea Amount: $67 million equivalent Terms: Repayable in 15 years with 3 years of grace, at the standard variable rate Project Description: The basic objective of the project is to assist the Korean National RaiLways (KKR) to increase transport efficiency and capacity of rail services in the Seoul-Busan Corridor. The loan funds would help finance part of a Kanagement Improvement Program to be implemented over the 1985-88 period. KNR's Program includes: (a) institutional and policy measures aimed mainly at ensuring long-term economic and fintncial viability of the railways by further improving services that are mosc profitable; (b) measures to improve intermodal complementarity and railway competitiveness and to prepare the ground for a high speed train, a major capacity increase to be introduced in the 90s; and (c) capacity expansion through resignalling and central traffic control between Suweon-Daegu on the Seoul- Busan Corridor, and related rolling-stock/equipment, ( providing over one-third more trains more safely and at faster speed. The proposed project comprises the resignalling and central craffic control components of item (c), as well as associated technical assistance and training. The project has a high economic return and the signalling overhaul is overdue. Risks: Risk for this type of project is in traffic forecasting; but in Korea's rapidly growing economy actual passenger traffic has typically exceeded forecasts in the past. Sensitivity analysis shows that a satisfactory return wouLd be achieved even with substantially lower traffic growth. Project Cost: Local Foreign Total - (USM million) - Signalling 17.0 43.6 60.6 Power Supply 3.1 3.3 6.4 Comounications 8.9 9.5 18.4 Equipment Rooms 4.4 - 4.4 Supervision 3.8 - 3.8 Coaches 51.1 - 51.1 Materials, etc. 10.0 - 10.0 Base Cost 98.3 56.4 154.7 Physical contingencies 4.9 0.6 5.5 Price contingencies 8.1 10.0 18.1 Total Project Cost 111.3 67.0 178.3 Identifiableduties and taxes are about $23.4 million. Total project cost net of duties and taxes is about $154.9 million. Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total Z (US$million) World Bank loan - 67.0 67.0 38 The Government 111.3 - 111.3 62 Total Financing 111.3 67.0 178.3 100 Estimated Bank FY 1986 1987 1988 1989 Disbursements: Annual 2.8 20.3 14.9 29.0 Cumulative 2.8 23.1 38.0 67.0 Rate of Return: 41Z Staff Appraisal Report: No. 5570-KO dated April 29, 1985 Naps: No. IBRD 13133R1 and 18758 KOREA SEOUL-BUSANCORRIDOR PROJECT I. TRANSPORT SECTOR A. Geographic and Economic Setting 1.01 The Republic of Korea has a land area of 98,500 sq km. About 70% of the land area is mountainous and agriculture is confined to about 22,600 sq km, or 23Z of the total area, mainly in the river valleys, lower hillsides and coastal plains. The climate is seasonal with very cold dry winters and hot humid summers. AnnuaL rainfall averages 800 mm to 1,400 mm with about 60% falling between June and September. The land mass is drained by a well developed river system with seasonal variations in flow which give rise to frequent flooding. The rugged terrain, extensive river system and severe winter cLimate make the construction of transport faciLities, particularly roads, difficuLt and costly. 1.02 The population is presently estimated at about 40 million and is growing at an annual rate of 1.7%. Population density is estimated at 388 per sq km of total area or 1,702 per sq km of agricultural land. Urban population is estimated to be growing at an annual rate of 4.6% and has increased from 40.7% of the total in 1970 to 55.9% in 1982. The increasing urban population has created