Polish Nuclear Power Programme ____________________________________ Warsaw, January 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ......................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. SUMMARY OF ACTIONS TAKEN TO DATE ..................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 2. THE OBJECTIVES AND THE SCHEDULE OF THE POLISH NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME . 11 2.1. THE FOUNDATIONS OF PNPP ..................................................................................................... 11 2.2. TERM OF PNPP ........................................................................................................................... 12 2.3. DIAGNOSIS OF THE SITUATION IN THE PROGRAMMING PERIOD .............................................. 13 2.4. SWOT .......................................................................................................................................... 13 2.5. MAJOR OBJECTIVE AND DETAILED OBJECTIVES ......................................................................... 15 2.6. RELATED STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS ............................................................................................ 16 2.7. MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF ACHIEVING THE MAJOR OBJECTIVE AND THE DETAILED OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................................................................ 18 2.7.1. MONITORING SYSTEM ......................................................................................................... 18 2.7.2. IMPLEMENTATION RATES ................................................................................................... 19 2.8. EVALUATION ............................................................................................................................... 20 2.9. PNPP’s IMPACT ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................... 20 2.10. SCHEDULE AND ACTIONS ......................................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER 3. NUCLEAR POWER IN THE CONTEXT OF LONG‐TERM ENERGY POLICY .............................. 32 3.1. THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER IN EUROPEAN ENERGY POLICY ............................................... 32 3.2. DECISIONS OF CRUCIAL RELEVANCE TO DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER ........................ 35 CHAPTER 4. ANALYSIS OF THE COSTS AND THE ECONOMIC RATIONALE BEHIND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER ............................................................................................................................. 38 4.1. FORECAST OF INCREASED DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY .............................................................. 38 4.2. NUCLEAR POWER IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE POLICY .......................................................... 43 4.2.1. ANALYSIS OF THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL ......................... 45 4.2.2. PLANNED SHUTDOWNS OF GENERATING CAPACITIES ....................................................... 46 4.3. FORECAST OF TECHNOLOGICAL AND FUEL STRUCTURE IN PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY ..... 47 4.4. ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NUCLEAR POWER........................ 49 4.4.1. TECHNOLOGIES UNDER CONSIDERATION ........................................................................... 49 4.4.2. INVESTMENT OUTLAYS FOR INDIVIDUAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION SOURCES ................. 51 4.4.3. AVERAGED UNIT FIXED COST .............................................................................................. 52 4.4.4. AVERAGED UNIT VARIABLE COST ........................................................................................ 53 4.4.5. VARIABLE COSTS RELATED TO CARBON EMISSION FEES .................................................... 55 4.4.6. AVERAGED TOTAL COST OF GENERATION OF 1 MWh OF ELECTRICITY, BY GENERATION SOURCE .......................................................................................................................................... 56 4.4.7. COMPETITIVENESS OF SOURCES FOR TYPICAL WORKING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SYSTEM .......................................................................................................................................... 57 4.4.8. IS ELECTRICITY GENERATION COST SENSITIVE TO CHANGES IN BASIC ANALYTICAL PARAMETERS? ............................................................................................................................... 60 4.4.9. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COST ANALYSIS: SENSITIVITY BY TECHNOLOGY, AT VARIOUS DISCOUNT RATES, AS FOR 2025 .................................................................................................... 60 4.4.10. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COST ANALYSIS: SENSITIVITY BY TECHNOLOGY, AT VARIOUS LOAD COEFFICIENTS ...................................................................................................................... 61 4.5. SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 62 CHAPTER 5. ORGANISATION OF TASKS FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME FOR POLAND .................................................................................................................. 64 5.1. ASSUMPTIONS BEHIND THE FUNCTIONING OF NUCLEAR POWER ............................................ 64 5.2. MAJOR ENTITIES IN POLISH NUCLEAR POWER SECTOR ............................................................. 65 5.2.1. MINISTER OF ECONOMY ..................................................................................................... 66 5.2.2. CHAIRMAN OF NATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY (NUCLEAR REGULATOR) ................. 67 5.2.3. RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL ENTERPRISE (RWDE) ........................................................ 68 5.2.4. NUCLEAR POWER FACILITY INVESTORS/OPERATORS ......................................................... 68 5.3. PARTICIPATION OF STATE AUTHORITIES AND BODIES ............................................................... 70 5.4. LEGAL ENVIRONMENT ................................................................................................................ 71 5.4.1. THE LEGAL FOUNDATION FOR PNPP ................................................................................... 71 5.4.2. PROMOTING NUCLEAR POWER .......................................................................................... 72 5.4.3. NUCLEAR SAFETY AND RADIOLOGICAL PROTECTION ......................................................... 72 5.5. INTEGRATED NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE REVIEW (INIR) ......................................................... 73 CHAPTER 6. ENSURING THE CONDITIONS FOR THE SAFE USE OF NUCLEAR POWER ........................... 74 iii 6.1. COOPERATION FOR THE SAFE USE OF NUCLEAR POWER .......................................................... 74 6.2. NUCLEAR FACILITIES IN POLAND ................................................................................................ 74 6.3. DEVELOPMENT AND MAJOR ELEMENTS OF THE POLISH NUCLEAR SAFETY SYSTEM ................ 75 6.4. AMENDMENT TO THE POLISH ATOMIC LAW ............................................................................. 76 6.5. SUBSEQUENT AMENDMENTS TO THE POLISH ATOMIC LAW .................................................... 84 6.6. PROCEDURE IN CASE OF RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY .............................................................. 85 6.7. THE FUKISHIMA ACCIDENT ......................................................................................................... 88 6.8. NUCLEAR SAFETY TASKS ............................................................................................................. 88 6.8.1. NAEA TO ACT AS THE REGULATOR FOR NUCLEAR POWER IN POLAND .............................. 88 6.8.2. SUSTAINING NUCLEAR SAFETY EXCELLENCE ....................................................................... 90 CHAPTER 7. PNPP IMPLEMENTATION COSTS AND SOURCES OF FUNDING .......................................... 91 7.1. INFRASTRUCTURE PREPARATION AND PNPP IMPLEMENTATION COSTS .................................. 91 7.2. CONDITIONS, DETERMINANTS AND MARKET MODELS OF SUPPORTING INVESTMENTS IN ZERO‐EMISSION AND lOW‐EMISSION POWER INDUSTRY ................................................................ 92 7.3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION COSTS AND SOURCES OF FUNDING ............................................. 96 7.3.1. EXPORT CREDIT AGENCIES .................................................................................................. 98 7.3.2. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ........................................................................ 98 7.3.3. THE STATE TREASURY .......................................................................................................... 99 CHAPTER 8. CHOICE OF SITE ................................................................................................................ 100 8.1. SURVEY OF NPP SITING STUDIES CARRIED OUT FOR POLAND BEFORE 1990 .......................... 100 8.2. STATUS OF CHOICE OF THE PLANNED NPP SITE ....................................................................... 100 8.3. NPP SITING REQUIREMENTS CONSIDERED BY INVESTOR ........................................................ 103 CHAPTER 9. PREPARATION AND REQUIRED CHANGES OF NATIONAL TRANSMISSION