FINAL REPORT Data and information collection for EU dual-use export control policy review Written by SIPRI and Ecorys 6 November 2015 European Commission Final report: Data and information collection for EU dual-use export control policy review The information and views set out in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission's behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. 2 November 2015 European Commission Final report: Data and information collection for EU dual-use export control policy review Contents ABSTRACT 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 1. INTRODUCTION 20 2. METHODOLOGY 22 2.1 Overview of methodological approach and implementation 22 2.2 The range of impacts considered 23 2.2.1 Economic impacts 23 2.2.2 Social impacts (including security and human rights) 25 2.2.3 Environment 26 2.3 Methodological challenges 26 2.4 Development and implementation of online surveys 27 2.4.1 Surveys for companies and business associations 27 2.4.2 Surveys for EU Member States 28 2.5 Selection and implementation of case studies 28 2.6 The cyber-surveillance sector 29 Table 2.1. Overview of potential impacts 24 3. ANALYSING THE BASELINE: DEFINING THE DUAL-USE INDUSTRY AND IDENTIFYING DIRECTLY AFFECTED SECTORS 31 3.1 Conceptualising the dual-use industry and identifying affected sectors 31 3.2 Typology of actors and sector specific characteristics 34 3.3 Transport sector 35 3.4 Particularities of the biological sector 38 Figure 3.1. Typology of actors 35 Figure 3.2. Key components of the transportation sector 37 Figure 3.3. Map of centrifugal separator manufacturers and applications in 40 different sectors Table 3.1. Global volumes by key transport mode (billion tonne – KM) 36 4. QUANTIFYING THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF THE EU’S DUAL-USE INDUSTRY 42 4.1 Number and value of export licences 42 4.2 Value and volume of dual-use related exports 46 4.2.1 Size of EU dual-use industry according to customs trade statistics 48 4.2.2 Detailed characterisation of top-10 product sectors containing highest 51 volume dual-use related export 4.3 Case study on Dutch dual-use exports 54 4.3.1 Introduction 54 4.3.2 Results 56 4.4 EU dual-use industry in terms of production 57 4.4.1 Size of the EU dual-use industry based on production 59 3 November 2015 European Commission Final report: Data and information collection for EU dual-use export control policy review 4.4.2 Detailed overview of most important products in top-10 dual-use 61 items producing sectors 4.5 EU Dual-use industry in terms of employees and enterprises 70 4.5.1 Results 73 4.6 EU dual-use industry from an international perspective 75 4.6.1 Share of EU dual-use related exports in world exports 76 4.6.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage 78 4.7 Synthesis and conclusions 79 Box 4.1. Danish export licence data 50 Figure 4.1. Development of value of export authorisations, by type, 45 EU, 2010-13 Figure 4.2. Total value of dual-use related exports from the EU 48 (Intra-EU; Extra-EU), 2010-2014 Figure 4.3. Value of extra-EU dual-use related exports, 2014, EU-28 51 Figure 4.4. Total production value and average value for most important sectors, 60 based on extra-EU export value, 2013, in € billions Figure 4.5. Number of enterprises in dual-use related NACE sectors in the EU 74 [2008 - 2012] Figure 4.6. Number of employees in dual-use related NACE sectors in the EU 75 [2008 – 2012] Figure 4.7. World (non-) dual-use related export values per HS-2 sector in 2013 78 Table 4.1a. Value and volume of export licences, 2010-2013 45 Table 4.1b Value and volume of licences according to Annex I categories as 46 of March 2015 Table 4.3. Value of Danish exports with export control licence and value of 50 dual-use related exports based on correlation table, 2014 Table 4.4. Value of dual-use related exports of top-10 largest sectors, at HS-4 52 detail, 2014 Table 4.5b. Share of dual-use related exports in dual-use related exports from 56 the Netherlands, top-10 dual-use related export sectors, 2014 Table 4.6. Top 10 sectors with highest extra-EU dual-use related exports, 59 PRODCOM coverage, 2006, 2009, 2013 Table 4.7. Most important dual-use related products in HS84, based on production, 2013 63 Table 4.8. Most important dual-use related products in HS84, based on 63 extra-EU trade, 2013 Table 4.9. Most important dual-use related products in HS85, based on production, 2013 64 Table 4.10. Most important dual-use related products in HS85, based on 64 extra-EU trade, 2013 Table 4.11. Most important dual-use related products in HS88, based on production, 2013 65 Table 4.12. Most important related dual-use products in HS88, based on 65 extra-EU trade, 2013 Table 4.13. Most important related dual-use products in HS90, based on production, 2013 66 4 November 2015 European Commission Final report: Data and information collection for EU dual-use export control policy review Table 4.14. Most important dual-use related products in HS90, 66 based on extra-EU trade, 2013 Table 4.15. Most important dual-use related products in HS27, 67 based on production, 2013 Table 4.16. Most important dual-use related products in HS27, 67 based on extra-EU trade, 2013 Table 4.17. Most important dual-use related products in HS71, 67 based on production, 2013 Table 4.18. Most important dual-use related products in HS71, 68 based on extra-EU trade, 2013 Table 4.19. Most important dual-use related products in HS39, 68 based on production, 2013 Table 4.20. Most important dual-use related products in HS39, 68 based on extra-EU trade, 2013 Table 4.21. Most important dual-use related products in HS29, 69 based on production, 2013 Table 4.22. Most important dual-use related products in HS29, 69 based on extra-EU trade, 2013 Table 4.23. Most important dual-use related products in HS38, 70 based on production, 2013 Table 4.24. Most important dual-use related products in HS38, 70 based on extra-EU trade, 2013 Table 4.25a. Matching NACE Rev. 2 – HS 72 5. ANALYSIS OF REVIEW OPTIONS 83 5.1. Introduction 83 5.2 Impact of review options on different groups of stakeholders 83 5.2.1 General observations 83 5.2.2 Implications for the transport sector 84 5.2.3 Implications for academia of ITT controls 86 5.2.4 Impact of Annex II and Annex IV 89 5.3 Review options under the four European Commission Priorities 96 5.3.1 ‘Adjust to an evolving security environment and enhance the 96 EU contribution to international security’ 5.3.2 ‘Promoting export control convergence and a global level playing field’ 100 5.3.3 ‘Develop an effective and competitive EU export control regime’ 102 5.3.4 ‘Support effective and consistent export control implementation & enforcement’ 104 Table 5.1. Upper threshold of total exports of items listed in Annex II and 91 Annex IV by EU Member States Table 5.2. List of CN codes for analysis 93 Table 5.3. Export of selected items from Annex II and IV 94 Table 5.4. Upper threshold of intra-EU exports of Items listed in Annex IV 95 by EU Member States 5 November 2015 European Commission Final report: Data and information collection for EU dual-use export control policy review 6. STAKEHOLDER PERCEPTIONS OF DUAL-USE EXPORT CONTROL POLICY AND THE REVIEW OPTIONS 110 6.1 Business perceptions: results of initial interview round 110 6.2 Business perceptions: results of the online survey 113 6.2.1 Characteristics of respondents 113 6.2.2 Dual-use products exported and importance of dual-use items 114 6.2.3 The licensing of dual-use items and export control management 116 6.2.4 Economic effects of the current dual-use export control policy: 118 compliance costs and competitive effects 6.2.5 Effects of export controls related to other value chain actors: 122 Technology transfer, brokering and transit controls 6.2.6 Social and environmental impacts of the dual-use export control policy 123 6.2.7 Assessing the impact of review options 123 6.3 Perceptions of licensing authorities: survey results 128 6.3.1 Current system 128 6.3.2 Review options 132 Table 6.1. Review issues and aspects impacting companies 128 Table 6.2. Main challenges linked to management of dual-use export controls 130 Table 6.3. Impact of review issues under review option 2 in terms of 131 administrative burden and human rights* Table 6.4. Impact of review issues under review option 2 with respect to 133 staff resources* Table 6.5. Impact of actions of review option 2* 135 Table 6.6. The impact of review issues under review option 3 in terms of 137 administrative burden, security and human rights* Table 6.7. Impact of review issues under review option 3 with respect to 139 staff resources* Table 6.8. Impact of actions of review option 3* 140 Figure 6.1.