V16, N8 ?,65$1';7%@"<+9%AB7%CBDB !"#$%&'()*'+"%+,"%W.)//)&*%a"/1$X 8th CD goes to ‘likely’ GOP; Hill, Donnelly fight potential tsunami By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - Of Indiana’s nine congressional seats located in what the national press is describing !"#$%&#O()*+&"$&,-#.)//)-0#[&/*"P#34,# the majority party, three occupied by Democrats who were swept in with the 2006 wave - the 2nd, 8th and 9th - have been in play for most of the year. But at this writing, only the 9th CD is 54-")*&,&*#67#89:#!"#!#$,;&#O<4"";=>P With new NRCC polling re- leased today showing Dr. Larry Buchson with a 20 percent lead over State Rep. Trent Van Haaften, Gallup’s generic ballot for Congress for the week of Sept. the 8th is now a likely Republican pickup. In the 2nd CD, 20-26 shows the race tied among all registered voters at 46 U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly has waged an aggressive campaign percent. Gallup observes: However, Republicans’ continu- attempting to tamp down a spirited challenge from State ing higher enthusiasm coupled with the usual GOP turnout Rep. Jackie Walorski, described by one Republican consul- !*?!-$!0&#";00&"$#!#")0-)[5!-$#A&=;6/)5!-#&*0&#)-#$%&# $!-$#!"#O!#,!*)!-$#5!-*)*!$&#+%4#$%,)?&"#4-#54@6!$>P#<%)"# -!$)4-+)*&#?4$&#34,#$%&#C>D>#84;"&E#!-*E#)-#$;,-E#")0-)[5!-$# ,!5&#%4?&,"#-&!,#O<4"";=>P A&=;6/)5!-#84;"&#"&!$#0!)-">#F)$%#[?&#+&&."#$4#04#6&34,&# Congressional generics have been all over the the Nov. 2 elections, and campaigning intensifying, these map, but an NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll had Republicans up 46-43 percent, down from 49-40 percent last month. Continued on page 3 A new revolution By DAVID McINTOSH WASHINGTON - About every generation, Americans send a wave of reform minded Congressmen to Washing- ton and shake up the political status quo. U4%,'("%'%$+'&1)&*%56/"7%85'19%4% The Watergate class changed the budget process and sought to reform the long- :&/;%<5:()1"%'%#)//):&%1://'5$% standing Democratic majority. My class of 1994 did the unthinkable and brought =:5%$:#":&"%4X#%5"'//;%=:59V )-#!#A&=;6/)5!-#@!B4,)$7#34,#$%&#[,"$# - U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh time in 50 years, committed to smaller government and applying the same laws to Congress as we do to private citizens. Many political commentators have started drawing comparisons between HOWEY Politics Indiana E'*"%C Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics ?,65$1';7%@"<+9%AB7%CBDB Howey Politics Indiana is a non-partisan newsletter based in Indianapolis and published on the campus of Franklin College. It was founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. Brian A. Howey, Publisher Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Jack E. Howey, editor Beverly K. Phillips, associate editor this year’s midterms and the 1994 The parallels that exist be- midterms. There are a lot of parallels. tween the 1994 election and today Subscriptions In 1994 there were many indepen- couldn’t be clearer. However, there are $350 annually HPI Weekly dents who rejected Republican George some key differences. $550 annually HPI Weekly and Bush and voted for Ross Perot. First, at the start 1994 HPI Daily Wire. This year the Tea Party move- Congressional campaign everyone as- !Call 317.627.6746 ment has energized independents sumed that the Democrats would lose who, when the movement started 18 seats, but keep the majority. Everyone months ago, were just as skeptical considered me the underdog. I had a Contact HPI about past Republican Congresses as contentious primary battle. Ruthie and Howey Politics Indiana they are about this Democratic Con- I committed ourselves to basing my 6255 N. Evanston Ave. gress. Then-President Clinton started campaign on ideas rather than cozying Indianapolis, IN 46220 4;$#+)$%#!#OD$)@;/;"P#=4,.#/!*&-# up to political interests. I established spending bill. He then attempted to a three-tiered theme for my campaign www.howeypolitics.com advance a health care reform pack- as: Freedom, Faith, and the Restor- [email protected] age that was rejected by the American ing America’s Greatness. We spent all !Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 people. And, he ended up passing our time taking to voters in my district !Washington: 703.248.0909 what was then the largest tax increase about how America was at a cross !G;")-&""#H3[5&I#JKL>MNL>MLOM in America’s history. roads and telling them that I would I remember attending a take Hoosier values to Washington. town meeting at which my predeces- Frankly, we didn’t realize there was a 2010, Howey Politics Indiana. sor, Democrat Phil Sharpe, was grilled wave building until I received a call All rights reserved. Photocopy- by many UAW members about why from Republican leaders the weekend ing, Internet forwarding, fax- Congress was raising their taxes. He before the election – and even then ing or reproducing in any form, decided to retire that year – creating our only thought was campaigning to an open seat that had been a safe win in our district. whole or part, is a violation of Democratic district for 20 years. Now, This year the Republican federal law without permission as in 1994, Republicans are united – surge has started earlier and remained from the publisher. ! then behind the Contract with Ameri- intense longer. Because Americans re- ca, now behind the Pledge to America. member the last Republican Congress HOWEY Politics Indiana E'*"%A Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics ?,65$1';7%@"<+9%AB7%CBDB just four years ago – not 50 – a change of control is real. did – there are wonderful people who live, work, and raise They know what is at stake. This will mean that both sides their families in cities and towns across this state. They +)//#[0%$#%!,*&,>#P4#4-&#"%4;/*#6&#$!.)-0#$%&),#"&!$#34,# %!?&#"4#@!-7#"4;-*#)*&!"#34,#%4+#$4#[Q#$%&#=,46/&@"# granted, and the differences in governing philosophy have before us and restore America. One of these ideas, which a become clearer, earlier. young couple brought to my attention, was eliminating the The candidates running in 2010 have many ad- marriage penalty in the income tax code. That eventually vantages I did not have. The Tea Party movement has became one of the major issues I worked on in Washing- energized Hoosiers who haven’t been involved in elections. ton. So listen well, be sincere as you share what you be- This will be a great asset as we close in on November. They lieve in, and take joy in being part of our great democracy are so passionate about restoring America to a place where at work. +&#?!/;&#3,&&*4@#3,4@#04?&,-@&-$#!-*#["5!/#,&"=4-")6)/)$7# By keeping your focus on things local, you will that they have dedicated every moment of their precious show residents in every corner of your district that you will time and energy to electing a conservative Congress. represent them and take Hoosier values to Washington – My advice to candidates, though, is to remem- not the other way around. ! ber the old nostrum -- all politics is local. Don’t worry !64;$#O+!?&"P#4,#$&!#=!,$7#@4?&@&-$"#)-#4$%&,#"$!$&">#:- - McIntosh is a former Indiana congressman and stead, keep your head down and do everything you can to 2000 Republican gubernatorial nominee. He now connect with voters in your district. You’ll discover what I practices law in Washington, D.C. People need to buck up. If people now want to take their F:&*5"$$7 from page 1 ball and go home, that tells me folks weren’t serious in the [,"$#=/!5&>P#U)5&#9,&")*&-$#V4&#G)*&-#$4/*#W&@45,!$"#)-#P&+# indicators could shift, but would require a major reorienta- 8!@="%),&#$4#O"$4=#+%)-)-0>P $)4-#43#?4$&,#"&-$)@&-$#$4#"%)3$#$%&#=,46!6)/)$)&"#")0-)[5!-$/7# The wild cards in the homestretch of this cycle are in the Democrats’ direction. the impact of the Tea Party. Many observers see it as a The New York Times blog Eight-Thirty-Five gives rejuvenating spark for the GOP, though its I-Caucus report the GOP a 65 percent chance of taking over the House, up card has shown Indiana Republicans like Jackie Walorski from 62 percent last week. The blog reported, “They are and Todd Young taking positions on education and the projected to control 224 House seats in the new Congress, ownership of federal land that could leave them open to up a single seat from 223 last week; this would imply a attack. There is also a potential for Republican incumbents gain of 45 seats from the 179 they have now (counting to lose, but that is not the case here in Indiana where one vacant seat most recently held by a Republican mem- incumbents Mike Pence and Dan Burton, and those in open ber). Substantially larger - or smaller - gains are possible, seats - Marlin Stutzman in the 3rd and Todd Rokita in the however. The Republicans’ lead among likely voters on the 4th - appear to be on their way to victory. Some felt that generic ballot is down slightly to 6.5 points this week from Democrat Tom Hayhurst might have an opening in North- L>R#=4)-$"#/!"$#+&&.E#!554,*)-0#$4#4;,#&"$)@!$&>P# eastern Indiana, but that open seat vacated by Republican In Indiana, aggravating circumstances for Demo- Mark Souder doesn’t appear to be on either party’s radar crats are the 62 percent who favor repealing health reforms nationally and here in the state. in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. That is well above # F)$%#/&""#$%!-#[?&#+&&."#$4#04#)-#+%!$#%!"#6&&-# the 54 percent nationally who favor the repeal in the NBC/ an extremely unpredictable cycle, here is HPI’s analysis of Wall Street Journal Poll. Another is the top of the ticket the competitive Indiana congressional seats: where Democrat Brad Ellsworth is faltering against Republi- can Dan Coats, trailing by close to 20 percent.