Ilex Context and baseline report: Derry ~ Londonderry – today and tomorrow Final report Summer / autumn 2010 Lagan House Sackville Street Lisburn BT28 2GE ℡: 44 2892 660669 : 44 2892 670895 Context and baseline report: Derry~Londonderry – today and tomorrow (summer / autumn 2010) Contents 1 BUILDING A BASELINE .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................................1 1.2 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................................................1 1.3 CITI -SCOPE MODEL ......................................................................................................................................2 1.3.1 Coverage .............................................................................................................................................2 1.3.2 Rationale ............................................................................................................................................3 1.3.3 Sustainability of Citi-Scope model ......................................................................................................4 1.3.4 Wider engagement .............................................................................................................................4 1.4 PURPOSE OF THE BASELINE REPORT .................................................................................................................5 1.5 REPORT STRUCTURE .....................................................................................................................................5 2 THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT ........................................................................................................................ 7 2.1 UNDERSTANDING THE CONTEXT ......................................................................................................................7 2.2 AN UNPRECEDENTED SCALE OF RECESSION ........................................................................................................7 2.3 A LONG ROAD BACK ......................................................................................................................................8 2.4 REBALANCING DEBT – A LONG -TERM PROBLEM ..................................................................................................9 2.5 BORDERS AND TRADE .................................................................................................................................11 2.6 RECOVERY – IF AND WHEN ? .........................................................................................................................12 2.7 IMPLICATIONS FOR DERRY ~L ONDONDERRY AND THE REGENERATION PLAN ...........................................................13 3 DERRY ~ LONDONDERRY TODAY AND TOMORROW .............................................................................. 14 3.1 DEMOGRAPHICS ........................................................................................................................................15 3.2 LABOUR MARKET .......................................................................................................................................16 3.2.1 Economic activity (resident) .............................................................................................................16 3.2.2 Employment (workplace) ..................................................................................................................17 3.2.3 Sectoral employment (workplace) ....................................................................................................18 3.2.4 Occupational structure (workplace) .................................................................................................21 3.2.5 Self-employment (workplace) ...........................................................................................................21 3.2.6 Employment (resident) .....................................................................................................................22 3.2.7 Unemployment and inactivity (resident) ..........................................................................................24 3.3 OUTPUT / GVA .........................................................................................................................................30 3.4 BUSINESS REGISTRATIONS, CLOSURES AND STOCK .............................................................................................32 3.5 SKILLS ......................................................................................................................................................33 3.5.1 Working age skills .............................................................................................................................33 3.5.2 School leavers ...................................................................................................................................37 3.6 WAGES ....................................................................................................................................................42 3.7 HOUSING MARKET .....................................................................................................................................43 3.8 DEPRIVATION ............................................................................................................................................45 3.9 TOURISM .................................................................................................................................................46 3.10 COMMUTING AND TRANSPORT .....................................................................................................................49 3.11 EMPLOYMENT LAND ...................................................................................................................................56 3.12 ENVIRONMENTAL ACCOUNTS .......................................................................................................................58 3.13 FISCAL ACCOUNTS ......................................................................................................................................60 3.14 WIDER NORTH WEST .................................................................................................................................62 3.14.1 Demographics ..............................................................................................................................62 3.14.2 Workplace employment ...............................................................................................................63 3.14.3 Resident employment and unemployment ..................................................................................64 3.14.4 Economic inactivity ......................................................................................................................66 3.14.5 Output / GVA ................................................................................................................................66 3.14.6 House prices .................................................................................................................................67 4 LOOKING WITHIN – A CITY OF DISPARITY ............................................................................................... 69 4.1 SNAPSHOT OF CURRENT DISPARITY INDICATORS ................................................................................................70 4.1.1 Resident employment rate ...............................................................................................................70 4.1.2 Resident working age qualifications .................................................................................................72 Context and baseline report: Derry~Londonderry – today and tomorrow (summer / autumn 2010) 4.1.3 Resident educational attainment and school leaver destinations ....................................................73 4.1.4 Resident labour mobility ...................................................................................................................74 4.1.5 Workplace employment ...................................................................................................................76 4.1.6 Summary of equality indicators ........................................................................................................78 4.2 AGGREGATE MEASURES OF DERRY ~L ONDONDERRY DISPARITIES AND TRENDS – HOW UNEQUAL IN RELATIVE TERMS ? ....79 4.2.1 Baseline ward demographic and economic forecasts ......................................................................79 4.2.2 Aggregate measures of inequality, trends and baseline inequality forecast ...................................84 4.2.3 Benchmarking Derry~Londonderry’s inequality ...............................................................................86 5 AN URBAN COMPARISON ...................................................................................................................... 88 5.1 BENCHMARKING OF URBAN INDICATORS .........................................................................................................88 5.2 LABOUR MARKET .......................................................................................................................................88