FLOODS RELATED INCIDENTS FROM MARCH - MAY2013 LONG RAINS. HIGHLIGHTS • Depressed and poorly distributed rainfall is expected over most parts of the country during March-May 2013 “Long-Rains” Season. This is likely to be more pronounced in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). • The western and central counties including Nairobi as well as the Coastal strip are likely to experience enhanced rainfall. • Most of the rainfall in the country is expected during the peak month of April except over the Coastal strip Where the peak is expected during the month of May. • During January and February 2013, slightly cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were present over the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Neutral conditions were observed over western Equatorial Indian Ocean while warmer than average SSTs prevailed over eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean FORECAST FOR MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM) 2013 “LONG RAINS” SEASON March to May is a major rainfall season in most parts of the country. Depicts the Long Term Mean rainfall patterns for March-April-May seasonal rainfall. The figure shows that the highest rainfall amounts of over 300mm are recorded over Western, Central, Coastal strip and parts of northern Kenya (Marsabit, Moyale). The forecast for March to May 2013 is based on the prevailing and expected Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) over the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans as well as other Synoptic, Mesoscale and local factors that affect the climate of Kenya. These factors were assessed using various tools including ocean-atmosphere models, statistical models, satellite derived information and expert interpretation. The prevailing slightly cool Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African Coast) coupled with very warm SSTs in the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia) were also considered. This constitutes a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that is not favorable for good seasonal rainfall over most parts of the country and more so the eastern sector. The predicted Onsets, Cessation and distribution of rainfall were derived from statistical analysis of past years, which exhibited similar characteristics to the current year (i.e. analogue year). For the current season, the analogue years were found to be 2001 and 1973 The forecast indicates that most parts of Kenya are likely to experience near normal rainfall with a tendency towards below normal (i.e. depressed rainfall). However, the western and central highlands as well as the Coastal strip are likely to experience near normal rainfall with a tendency towards above normal (i.e. enhanced rainfall). The specific outlook for March to May 2013 “Long-Rains” Season (depicted in indicates that: I. Western Counties (Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega, and Bungoma); II. Nyanza Counties (Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Siaya, Kisii, and Nyamira); III. Counties in the Central and Southern Rift Valley (Kericho, Bomet, Nakuru, Laikipia, and Narok); IV. Counties in the Northern Rift Valley (Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet); V. Central Counties (Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kiambu, Murang’a, and Kirinyaga); VI. Nairobi County; Some Counties in Eastern Region (Embu, Meru, and Tharaka Nithi) VII. Coast Region (Lamu, eastern parts of Kilifi, Mombasa, and Kwale) are likely to receive near normal rainfall with a tendency towards above normal (i.e. enhanced rainfall). VIII. Several Counties in Eastern Region (Isiolo, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, and Marsabit); IX. Some Counties in Coast Region (Tana River, western parts of Kilifi and Taita Taveta); X. Most Counties in Northern Rift Valley (Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu); and XI. Counties in Northeastern (Mandera, Garissa, and Wajir); are likely to receive near normal rainfall with a XII. tendency towards below normal (i.e. depressed rainfall). 2. EXPECTED SEASONAL RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION The distribution, both in time and space, of March to May 2013 “Long-Rains” is likely to be generally poor, over most parts of the country and more so the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). • In Northwestern and Southeastern Kenya, the rainfall performance is likely to be generally Depressed in April and May but slightly enhanced in March. • Generally enhanced rainfall is expected over the western highlands, Lake Basin, central Rift Valley and the central highlands including Nairobi in March and April. It is, however, expected to be generally depressed in May. • The Northeastern parts are likely to experience generally depressed rainfall throughout the Season. • The Southeastern counties are expected to receive depressed rainfall throughout the period. • The rainfall performance along the Coastal Strip is expected to be near normal in March and April but enhanced in May especially along the north coast. (Source Kenya met.) Several parts of the country especially the Coast and Western Kenya regions have been affected by flooding following an increased heavy downpour countrywide. In the Western Region, at least 330 Households (HH) with a population of 1650 people have been affected by heavy rains as revealed by a Kenya Red Cross Society’s (KRCS) detailed assessment with houses destroyed and livestock lost. Over the Easter period, River Auji and Nyamasaria in Kisumu broke their banks causing unprecedented damage. The affected HH were mainly in Nyaori, Kassagam and Manyatta B in Kisumu East, Gem Rae and Wangaya, Nyando, Nyakach and Rachuonyo Districts. Further, several learning institutions including Kassagam Primary and Secondary School, St. Alloys Primary School and St. Joseph Secondary School in Kisumu East District were also affected, thus disrupting learning. In Nyando District, Miruka Primary was hardest hit. Several businesses as well as transport flow along the main Nairobi-Kisumu Highway were also affected after a section of the Nyamasaria Bridge was swept away. River Nyando as well as Ayweyo, Nyamasaria and Ombeyi, which are seasonal rivers, are currently flowing at high speeds and in case of any more rains, the rivers are likely to break their banks and further disrupt human and animal livelihoods. The KRCS Western Region office has been conducting needs assessment in the affected areas and the immediate needs are alternative shelters and beddings, water and sanitation interventions as well as alert notices to the populations that are still deemed to be at risk of displacement. Meanwhile, the Coast Region has also been experiencing heavy rains from Wednesday 20th March 2013. Heavy rains were received in Voi on 20th March; 2013 evening in areas of Sofia, Mabomani and Sikujua villages affecting 22 HH. Most of the affected HHs was integrated into the community. St. Kelvin Primary School was one of the hardest hit institutions with two classrooms being destroyed, hence affecting the learning process. There were also reports of loss of livestock. On Tuesday 19th March; 2013, Tsangatsini in Kilifi County experienced strong winds coupled with heavy downpour resulting to the falling of four electric poles in Ndatani Area; one house also fell in the same incident. On the same day, in Mulanjo, Madogo Area of Tana River, one village was also affected by flooding. In Taita Taveta County, an elderly woman drowned and her body was found at Mabomani village in the outskirts of Voi town on Wednesday evening. In Lower Eastern Region, flash floods were reported on Wednesday 20th March 2013 in Kiboko area along the Nairobi-Mombasa Highway after River Kiboko burst its banks. The KRCS Kibwezi team rescued five people who had been trapped by the floods. In Rongai, three people died after a matatu they were travelling in was washed away by floods. In another incident, a man was swept away by floods in Thika after heavy rains experienced in during the night hours of 20th March 2013 and his body recovered early the following morning. Meanwhile in Ole Polos Ngong, floods swept away a vehicle trapping one person who sought refuge on the roof of his vehicle while another person swam to safety. The KRCS Emergency Operation Centre informed the Kenya police and the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) who responded and rescued the trapped person. In Central Region, 10 HH were affected by floods in Kiambu and Riara areas. The KRCS Kiambu Sub – Branch carried out a rapid assessment. On 1st April 2013, a Church also collapsed in Ngurubani town in Kirinyagi, leaving two people injured. In the Rift Valley heavy rains in Kalokol Area, Turkana rendered at least 33 HH homeless. Heavy rains have also hit the entire Region of Dadaab Refugee Camps since 20th March; 2013, damaging tents and flooding roads. At least 14,280 people were affected by the floods. The Dadaab KRCS worked with other agencies to assist the affected people. The blocks that were mainly affected by the floods in the IFO2 Refugee camp include Blocks R, P, U, K, D, J, H, I and T. And in Garbatulla District, Gafarsa Location, Belgesh Sub location, 142HH were affected by floods and some 302 livestock reported lost, with 636 people being rendered homeless and are currently camping at the Belgesh Primary School. The immediate need for the affected population is food aid. There were also reports of heavy rainfall in Moyale and Marsabit. 7th& 8 April A projected 180 families in Kabuto and 200 families in Nyora have been displaced in Migori due to flash floods caused by the heavy rains across the county through R. Kuja. We will respond accordingly. I will post more information in today's sitrep. Attached kindly find some photos. Sericho town is situated approximately 135 Kms from Garba Tulla town which is the District headquarters for Garba Tulla District. The town has a total of 820 households with an estimated population of approximately 5000 persons. Gubatu village is also situated about 500 metres away from Sericho town with an estimated 160 households. On the 4th of April 2013, there was a heavy rain from morning to evening with raging winds that led to many households being either submerged, destroyed or marooned by the floods.