Toward a New World Order RESEARCH PAPERS AND POLICY STUDIES 38 INSTITUTE OF EAST ASIAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • BERKELEY Toward a New World Order: Adjusting India-U.S. Relations EDITED BY Leo E. Rose and Eric Gonsalves A publicationof the Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley. Although the Institute is responsible for the selection and acceptance of manuscripts in this series, responsibility for the opinions expressed and for the accuracy of statements rests with their authors. The Research Papers and Policy Studies series is one of several publications series sponsored by the Institute of East Asian Studies in conjunction with its constituentunits. The others include the ChinaResearch Monograph series, the JapanResearch Monograph series, the Korea Research Monograph series, and theIndochina ResearchMonograph series. A list of recent publicationsappears at the back of the book. Correspondence may be sent to: Ms. Joanne Sandstrom, Managing Editor Institute of East Asian Studies University of California Berkeley, California 94720 Copyright © 1992 by The Regents of the University of California ISBN 1-55729-032-6 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 92-70592 Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. Contents Preface VI 1. Introduction Peter R.Lavoy 1 PART 1: GLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2. Toward a New World Order: Collective Security or Balance of Power? C. Raja Mohan 19 3. India and the World Economy: A Perspective for the 1990s Vijay L. Kelkar 32 PART 2: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 4. South Asian Relations, Bilateral and Regional S. D. Muni 45 5. Developments in Southwest Asia Nicholas G. Thacher 57 6. Projected U.S. and USSR Roles in South Asia Robert L. Hardgrave, Jr 65 PART 3: CHINA AND JAPAN 7. Politics of Growth and Stability in China Manoranjan Mohanty 81 8. Japan in Asia Paul H. Kreisberg 93 PART 4: INDIA-U.S. RELATIONS IN THE 1990s 9. Trends in U.S.-Indian Relations: The Security Dimension Stephen Philip Cohen 105 10. India and the United States: Growing Economic and Technological Cooperation S.K.Lambah 115 11. Expanding Social, Cultural, and Intellectual Exchanges Irene Tinker 124 12. India, the United States, and the World: An American View Thomas P. Thornton 133 13. India, the United States, and the World: An Indian View Manoj Joshi 143 Contributors 159 Discussants, Session Chairs, Staff 160 Preface The 1980s had been a period of great fluctuation in India-U.S. relations ranging from sullen antipathy to sullen indulgence, reflecting primarily the reactions in both societies to developments in the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran borderareas and, in particular, theSovietmilitaryintervention in Afghanistan. By the end of the decade it was reasonablyclear that the complexbut limited multipower confrontation in this highly strategic western border area of South Asia was comingto a conclusion withthe Sovietwithdrawal fromAfghanistan and the American decision to seek an agreement with Moscow that would allow Washington to terminate military assistance to the Afghan resistance forces. Implicit, of course, were some modifications in the American perceptions of Pakistan that made changes in U.S. policy toward that presumably "near nuclearstate" more acceptable than in the yearsPakistan had been serving as the principal channel of supply to the Afghan resistance. The early 1990s have been, if anything, even more traumatic for Indian and American policy makingin Southand Southwest Asia. TheGulfWarin early 1991 and the disintegration of the Soviet Union late in 1991 has made it necessary for both New Delhi and Washington to revise certain basic themes in their foreign policy—quietly at least. The second India-U.S. bilateral confer ence was held in Berkeley in mid-1991 while the process of change was still a subjectof debatein bothcountries. Thedistinguished collection ofparticipants from both countries expressed a range of views on policy matters in then- contributions to this volume that reflect the ongoing debate within both countries as well as the dialoguebetweenthem in ensuingmonthsand years. The Institute of East Asian Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, would like to express appreciation to Eric Gonsalves, the director of theIndiaInternational Centrein NewDelhi,for thecenter'sessential coopera tion in the organizationof the conferenceandin theselection of a distinguished delegationfrom India and to the Ford Foundation for its financial support. Leo E. Rose 1. Introduction PETER R. LAVOY First Session: Global Political and Strategic Developments The conference participants used their initial discussion to examine the likely impact of the Gulf War on recent developments and trends in global politics. The dialogue focussed on how the world's most powerful states—the United States, the Soviet Union, Germany, and Japan—would relate to one another and to the world's middle and small powers afterthe war. The delegates also exchanged views about the likely contributions that the United Nations and arms control could make to future international relations. The United States and the New World Order Although the forum participants could only speculate about the long-term outcome ofthe GulfWar, most felt that if the American government and people are pleased with the war's resolution, then Washington will act with greater confidence in global politics and lead efforts to establish a new world order. It was observed that the United States, which had been uncertain about its post- cold war role, had demonstrated to the world and to itself that it is the only power able and willing to apply enough political and military resources consistently to influence the outcome of global events. The two delegations reacted to the prospect of Washington's international resurgence in very different terms. The Indian participants expressed concern about the degree of responsibility with which the United States would act globally and in the Middle East in the aftermath ofa military victory over Iraq. They stressed that any move toward establishing a Pax Americana would be considered threatening not only in New Delhi but in many other capitals ofthe developing world. 2 PETER R. LAVOY Farmore confident inWashington's ability toactprudently inworld affairs, the American delegates called attention tothe pressing domestic problems that are certain to limit the level of future U.S. activity abroad. The American speakers also stressed that financial and political considerations will compel an even more assertive United States toencourage other actors to play prominent parts in efforts to solve and prevent future regional security problems. The Indian side did not disagree with this assessment. The Future International Role ofthe Soviet Union Although the delegates agreed that the Soviet Union can no longer be considered a superpower in the same sense that the United States continues to act as one, the group viewed the issue of Moscow's future world role with uncertainty. Internal economic development will remain a fundamental Soviet goal, butanIndian delegate wamed that this does not necessarily imply that the Kremlin will keep looking to the West for economic assistance or that it will always accommodate Western interests in foreign policy matters. Intemal political developments will almost certainlyshapeMoscow'srole in interna tional relations. But because nobody can predict whether Moscow will be able to keepthe Sovietrepublics together andtheunion's borders intact,thereis no telling how this powerful source ofdomestic instability will affect the govern ment's activities. Germany and Japan in International Politics If theGulfWardemonstrated thattheSoviet Union nolonger functions asa global superpower, italso indicated that Germany and Japan are not yet ready to alter significantly the scope and nature oftheir involvement inglobal politics. Even though the United States has intimated that it expects more than checkbook diplomacy from itspartners, Germany and Japan effectively have acted as little more than cash-dispensing machines during the Gulf crisis. Although the delegates observed that the diffusion of global power was a certainty in the long run,they disagreed—along individual rather than delega tion lines—about the nature of the Gulf War's shorter-term impact on the propensity ofpowers other than Washington to become more assertive. Several speakers believed that recent events in the Gulfwould temporarily freeze the trend toward multipolarity, but others observed that the Gulf crisis had stimulatedserious and focussed discussions in Tokyoand in Bonnaboutwhat kind of global responsibilities Japan and Germany should undertake in the future. Debates of thisnature, it was emphasized, areanessential precondition to any fundamental change in policy orientation and actual conduct. Introduction 3 The United Nations and World Politics Theend of the cold war createda widespread beliefthatthe UnitedNations might play a more important role ininternational politics, and the steady use of theUN attheoutset oftheGulfcrisis appeared tovalidate this expectation. But many conference participants pointed out that the UN's very structure pre cludes it from operating immediately in dramatically different ways. Despite their desire to see the UN become a more responsible, consistent, and evenhanded force for dampening regional tensions and heading off violence, the Indian delegation observed that the composition and decision-making procedures of the Security Council impel the UN to reflect