The Changing Economic Structure and Current Baseline of Davis County and Municipalities 4 Prepared for Davis County Department of Community and Economic Development Prepared by James A. Wood John C. Downen Pamela S. Perlich Jan E. Crispin Bureau of Economic and Business Research The University of Utah June 2007 The Changing Economic Structure and Current Baseline of Davis County and Municipalities T ABLE OF C ONTENTS Key Findings ............................................................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................... v Changes in the Economic Base of Davis County, 1990–2005 ............................................................................ 1 Demographics ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Population...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Race and Ethnicity ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Education....................................................................................................................................................... 7 Income ........................................................................................................................................................... 7 Poverty ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 Components of Personal Income............................................................................................................ 11 Commuting Patterns.................................................................................................................................. 13 Employment and Wages................................................................................................................................... 16 Employment................................................................................................................................................ 16 Occupations ................................................................................................................................................ 22 Wages ........................................................................................................................................................... 25 Major Employers........................................................................................................................................ 25 Retail Sales........................................................................................................................................................... 30 Consumer Expenditures............................................................................................................................ 32 Tax Revenue ....................................................................................................................................................... 35 Real Estate........................................................................................................................................................... 37 Assessed Property Values.......................................................................................................................... 37 New Residential Construction.................................................................................................................. 38 Real Estate Markets.................................................................................................................................... 41 Nonresidential Construction .................................................................................................................... 42 Commercial Development........................................................................................................................ 43 Conversion of Land to Residential and Commercial Use.................................................................... 51 Projected Demand for Commercial Space............................................................................................. 52 Agriculture and the Davis County Economy................................................................................................ 54 Transportation.................................................................................................................................................... 54 Legacy Parkway........................................................................................................................................... 55 Commuter Rail............................................................................................................................................ 55 Hill Air Force Base ............................................................................................................................................ 61 Historical Overview ................................................................................................................................... 61 The Role of Hill Air Force Base in Davis County ................................................................................63 Outlook........................................................................................................................................................ 67 Davis County in a Regional Context .............................................................................................................. 67 Demographics............................................................................................................................................. 68 Employment................................................................................................................................................ 68 Housing Inventory ..................................................................................................................................... 69 Commercial Sector..................................................................................................................................... 70 Retail Sector................................................................................................................................................. 71 Demographic Analysis of Davis County ............................................................................................................... 73 Population........................................................................................................................................................... 73 Age ....................................................................................................................................................................... 73 Employment ....................................................................................................................................................... 84 City Projections .................................................................................................................................................. 86 B UREAU OF E CONOMIC AND B USINESS R ESEARCH i The Changing Economic Structure and Current Baseline of Davis County and Municipalities T ABLE OF C ONTENTS, cont’d. City Baselines and Profiles .......................................................................................................................................93 Bountiful ..............................................................................................................................................................95 Centerville..........................................................................................................................................................115 Clearfield............................................................................................................................................................135 Clinton................................................................................................................................................................157 Farmington........................................................................................................................................................174 Fruit Heights .....................................................................................................................................................193 Kaysville.............................................................................................................................................................207 Layton.................................................................................................................................................................227 North Salt Lake.................................................................................................................................................248 South Weber......................................................................................................................................................269