Accessibility of the Baltic Sea Region Past and Future Dynamics Accessibility is a key concept for and declines with distance, travel time dynamics both in the past and future. The territorial development and an essential or cost. For the analysis presented in this two most influential factors affecting past location factor. It holds significance on publication, destination size is represented accessibility are demographic changes various spatial scales. Even in the areas by regional population and the impedance and the development of the transport geographically distant from the European by travel time. Accessibility potential to market. This trend will continue in the same core, where accessibility is generally poor, the population can be seen as an indicator direction. for the size of market areas for suppliers of its local differentiation may decide about The future accessibility trends of the BSR goods and services and thus as an indicator development. are determined by the future demographic showing the competitive position of regions. changes and the planned trans-European The VASAB Ministerial Conference in 2014 The accessibility potential indicators are transport networks of the European in Tallinn underlined that connectivity and presented as index values, i.e. the BSR Union (EU) - TEN-T policy1 defining accessibility in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR), average accessibility is always set to 100 and infrastructure developments as well as as well as the links between the Region all regional indicator values are standardised development in East- and Southeast Asia. and Europe’s core areas, and between the using this average. Region and other neighbouring regions are TEN-T corridors in the BSR are: There are two basic possibilities to look at amongst the key development issues in the • The Scandinavian - Mediterranean changes of accessibility over time. One is BSR. The key challenge for the countries and corridor; to analyse the relative changes, the other is regions is to interconnect Trans-European, • The North Sea - Baltic corridor; to use absolute changes. Both approaches national and regional intermodal transport • The Baltic - Adriatic corridor. might yield different results as one region networks in the best way possible. might perform in different ways depending The accessibility scenarios of this VASAB The concept of accessibility potential is on the way the change is looked at. publication are meant to describe realistic based on the assumption that the attraction Therefore, this publication considers relative situations according to planned transport of a destination increases with its size, and absolute changes to analyse accessibility infrastructure development changes. The Context of Past Accessibility Changes Demographic Changes Population change has a significant impact negative population balance. In general, and b) peripheries - the largest centres. on accessibility potential of the BSR regions. most of the south-eastern part of the Baltic The scale and speed of changes affect Changes in the population distribution in Sea macro region (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, the indicators of spatial accessibility. Over the BSR macro region in the period 2006- Belarus, eastern Poland, part of Russia and a period of 10 years, the population of 2016 were significant (Figure 1). A substantial eastern Finland and north-eastern Germany) some areas increased by over 20 % (Skåne, population increase took place in southern are characterised by rapid population southern Norway, the Stockholm region, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark, as loss during the last ten years. In the new the suburbs of Gdansk, Poznan, Warsaw and well as in the St. Petersburg region. In Poland, EU member states, it is caused by parallel Helsinki). At the same time, the population there was a clear concentration of the migration to the largest cities and abroad. In of most units in Lithuania, Latvia and population in the vicinity of the five largest Russia and Belarus, internal directions were Mecklenburg - Vorpommern fell by more centres (the so-called “Big Five”): Warsaw, important for the largest centres (Moscow, than 10 %. If new transport investments Gdansk, Poznan, Krakow and Wroclaw. It St. Petersburg, Minsk). The concentration of were not implemented in 2006-2016, results from the intense migration to these people in major metropolises also occurs in demographic changes would probably have cities from the peripheries and from massive the Nordic countries. suburbanisation. The same process can be caused a noticeable decrease in the level observed in the surroundings of Tallinn, The processes indicate the growing of accessibility potential in the eastern part Helsinki and Minsk. In Lithuania and Latvia, differentiation of the macro region with of the macro region. This should also be the better situation of suburban zones of respect to the demographic situation. It considered in the context of changes in the Vilnius and Riga is expressed only in the less takes place in two dimensions: a) East-West; demographic structure (aging process). 1 The Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) is a European Commission policy directed towards the implementation and development of a Europe-wide network of roads, railway lines, inland waterways, maritime shipping routes, ports, airports and rail-road terminals. It consists of two levels: The Core Network, containing the most strategic parts/connections linking the most important nodes to be completed by 2030. For the implementation of the core network, a multimodal corridor approach has been adopted. The Comprehensive Network, covering all European regions shall ensure good accessibility of all regions to be implemented by 2050. • 2 • Accessibility of the Baltic Sea Region • Past and Future Dynamics Figure 1 Population development, 2006-2016 In percent < -10 -10 - -5 -5 - -2,5 -2,5 - 0 0 - +2,5 +2,5 - +5 +5 - +10 +10 - +20 > +20 Demographic Changes Past Transport Infrastructure Development In some countries of the BSR, the motorway standards here, something which is also there was an increase in the length of the network was already widely developed true for several parts of the Baltic States. railway network in actual use. However, by 2006 (Table 1) and all countries have In all three Baltic States as well as in Russia all other countries saw a decrease of experienced an increase of the motorway and Belarus quality and capacity of national the railway network in operation. The network before 2016. Poland has invested roads was significantly improved. overwhelming part of the rail infrastructure heavily in motorways. The development of the rail infrastructure in the BSR does not allow operating In the Nordic countries national roads have in the BSR, on the other hand, was very speeds for high speed railways. Quite the an important role for the connectivity of different in the different countries (Table opposite, non-modernised tracks, outdated regions and cities: lower densities and lower 2). In some countries, such as Finland, signalling techniques and rolling stock lead traffic volumes do not require motorway Lithuania and the BSR parts of Germany to slow and often unreliable train services. Table 1 Length of the motorway network in the EU member states of the BSR Year DK DE* EE FI LV LT NO PL SE 2005 (km) 1,032 2,051 99 693 - ** 309 264 552 1,700 2016 (km) 1,255 2,155 145 890 - 314 392 1,640 2,118 Change (km) 223 104 46 197 - 5 128 1,088 418 Source: Eurostat (2018), BMVI (2017) *BSR part only ** data for 2010 Accessibility of the Baltic Sea Region • Past and Future Dynamics • 3 • Table 2 Length of the railway lines in use in the EU member states of the BSR Year DK DE* EE FI LV LT NO PL SE 2005 (km) 2,646 * 6,657 968 5.732 2.270 1.771 4.114 19.507 11.017 2016 (km) 2.539 * 6,760 918 5.926 1.860 1.911 3.895 18.429 10.882 Change (km) -107 * +103 -50 +194 -410 +140 -219 -1078 -135 % electrified in 2016 24.5 ** 52.8 14.4 55.2 13.5 6.4 63.1 64.0 75.2 Source: Eurostat (2018), Destatis (2018) *BSR part only ** Germany Changes in the Transport Market Changes in transport accessibility related There are various stages of development of In the Baltic countries and Poland the to new investments are a response to the the transport market in the BSR countries. number of private passenger cars is situation on the transport market. During In Germany and the Nordic countries, the constantly growing. In Poland, this increase the period 2005-2016 changes in road development of infrastructure and the is still linear, and the level has almost accessibility were connected with the improvement of railway accessibility can doubled since 2005. This is related to liberal enlargement of the European Union, and be seen as one of the factors of favourable regulations regarding the import of used then the collapse in 2008-2009 related to changes of the modal structure towards cars from Western Europe. The quality of the economic crisis. After 2012, the volume of transport stabilised in most of the BSR countries. The dynamics of road transport cannot be treated as an effect of improving transport accessibility. It is rather one of its indirect causes. The large scale of growth in Poland and the Baltic States (including the scale of transit from Eastern Europe) caused significant increases in the number of HGV (heavy goods vehicles), and thus the demand for new infrastructure. The development of the TEN-T North Sea - Baltic Corridor (including in particular the construction of Via Baltica) is seen as the answer to this demand. In the case of rail transport, the scale of changes in the period considered was generally lower. Also in this case, the effect of the 2008 crisis is visible. However, the enlargement of the European Union itself is much less marked.