We would like to acknowledge the University of Surrey and their engagement of Prof Maria Jesus Bonilla Priego to extract relevant information form CDP reports, and also the Griffith Institute for Tourism for their general support of this report. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Airlines are facing mounting pressure from governments, the public and media to reduce their fast-growing CO2 emissions. Scientists have calculated that the ‘carbon budget’ that remains to stay safely within 1.5 degrees Celsius warming will be depleted in 8 years and 2 months (from November 2019), assuming current levels of emissions. Whilst airlines currently only represent 2-4% of emissions, their share will increase to well over 20% in 2050 should aviation continue on its current growth path. Demand for air travel continues to be strong; however, there are signs that the sentiment towards flying is changing. Ethical questions are being raised concerning air travel, including around equality, and an increasing number of organisations are setting carbon reduction targets for employee air travel. At the same time, governments are looking at taxing aircraft emissions, as one way to meet national obligations and contribute to international reduction goals. Internalising the cost of carbon will lead to increasing airfares and slowing demand for travel. This is opposite to past trends that saw fares become cheaper over time encouraging more people to travel. Many airlines are aware of these challenges and are investing substantially into carbon reduction programs. This White Paper presents macro trends in the aviation industry around carbon emissions, followed by a more detailed analysis of initiatives reported by leading airlines. More specifically, the largest 58 airlines that make up 70% of total available seat kilometres were assessed. Particularly innovative approaches are highlighted, and where possible materiality is assessed. The paper draws on information that is publicly reported by airlines through their Sustainability Reports, websites or other public disclosures. 2 Airline initiatives to reduce climate impact An analysis of airline reports shows that to date the industry fails to report Nineteen airlines are actively considering alternative fuels to supplement or carbon around an agreed set of measures, in particular, when benchmarking replace fossil fuels. The reporting on biofuel investment varied in detail and efficiency. Reverting toCO 2 per available seat kilometre as one common quality, although some airlines stated significant investments into research metric highlights that most airlines were able to demonstrate improvements and development and actual production of biofuel. Overall, however, the in carbon efficiency, but essentially all of them increased their absolute volumes of biofuel used to date are miniscule. In addition to challenges emissions between 2017 and 2018. Only 35 out of the top 58 airlines provided related to volume, there are wider concerns around the sustainability of information on emissions, highlighting the need for much improved disclosure biofuels and the net carbon reduction they can deliver once broader carbon and reporting in the industry. The collective improvement in efficiency of those cycle effects are taken into account. 35 airlines was about 1% in 2018 compared to 2017. Airlines are promoting carbon offsetting programs as one way to mitigate Reporting and target setting is an established practice to enable successful their climate impact, but also to engage environmentally aware customers. decarbonisation. Only 16 airlines specified targets other than the general IATA Overall, reporting on implementation is still rudimentary, with only 28 industry targets. In addition, eight airlines used an internal price on carbon airlines making reference to carbon offsetting, and only one third of these reporting on customer uptake and actual quantities offset. To fully capitalise to incentivise change and investment towards lower-carbon alternatives. on travellers’ willingness to contribute to climate mitigation, airlines will In total, it was found that airline initiatives to save emissions fall into 22 need to improve their offsetting systems and communication. Drawing on different categories of action. These range from aircraft efficiency measures high quality credits that lead to genuine, additional and long-term climate to improving flight operations. They also include leadership and partnership benefits is essential. initiatives. Some airlines also report on their on-the-ground improvements, for example through electric vehicle fleets or improved efficiency in buildings The report concludes with some critical remarks on the need to accelerate and maintenance. efforts of true decarbonisation in the aviation sector. Governments play some role in accelerating change, be it through policy incentives, taxes, The most notable improvements are made through fleet renewal, retrofit or investment into research and innovation. In the meantime, managing (e.g. winglets) and weight reductions. Despite some good success, the demand, for example, through improved air-rail connectivity, is an important analysis did reveal that reductions are only in the order of 0.1 to 0.3% per measure to reduce transport emissions. Such shifts could also indicate measure. In other words, to compensate for growth in the order of 5%, an future more drastic transformation of aviation business models as providers airline would have to implement a very large number of these measures, of ‘access’ rather than physical mobility. year on year. One key finding therefore is that the incremental improvements are not sufficient to achieve notable reductions or decarbonise aviation. 3 1. INTRODUCTION ↪ 1.1 CONTEXT OF AVIATION EMISSIONS TABLE OF CONTENTS 01 02 03 04 Introduction Approach: data An expanding Emissions and analysis industry trends Pages 06 — 11 Pages 12 — 14 Pages 15 — 17 Pages 18 — 21 1.1 Context of aviation emissions 06 2.1 Public reporting 13 4.1 Total emissions 18 1.2 The urgency of climate action 07 4.2 Improvements 19 1.3 Operating environment 09 1.4 Objectives of this White Paper 11 4 Airline initiatives to reduce climate impact 05 06 07 08 Carbon reduction Conclusion and Appendix References initiatives recommendations Pages 22 — 34 Pages 35 — 38 Page 39 Pages 40 — 41 5.1 Reporting and targets 22 6.1 Growth meets resistance 35 5.2 Overview of measures by category 24 6.2 Carbon reduction efforts 36 5.3 Quantifying savings 26 6.3 The role of governments 37 6.4 Transport networks and access 38 5 1 Introduction 1.1 Context of aviation emissions Aviation has been described as a “‘tough-nut’ source of pollution” (Gabbatiss, 1. Net zero means to achieve a balance 2018, p.1), facing considerable challenges in reducing its carbon emissions. between anthropogenic emissions and their removals through carbon sinks by Whilst there are presently limited substitutes for aviation fuel, airlines are 2050. Carbon sinks absorb carbon and putting considerable efforts into improving fuel efficiencies. Ongoing growth, the most important natural ones are however, is leading to growing emissions, to the extent that aviation could plants, the ocean and soils. Research is exploring man-made sinks; however, make up 22% of global emissions by 2050 (Cames et al., 2015). negative-emissions technologies are in their infancy. The Paris Agreement sets the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (°C) by reaching net zero1 emissions by the middle of the century (UNFCCC, 2016). Whilst domestic emissions fall within jurisdictions of national governments and therefore are subject to Paris commitments, international emissions are excluded from the Accord. Instead, these are addressed by mechanisms developed by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) in collaboration with the International Air Transport Association (IATA). About 62% of aviation emissions occur in international air space (Cames et al., 2015), and a ‘basket of measures’ has been put in place to deal with these. In particular, ICAO’s Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) involves a market mechanism whereby airlines will purchase carbon credits to compensate for emissions that exceed 2020 levels on specific routes (IATA, 2013). Such ‘carbon neutral growth’ poses inherent challenges due to the political complexity of reporting and implementation (Lyle, 2018) and the fact that offsetting does not help decarbonise aviation (Becken & Mackey, 2017). For an overview and assessment of the impact of CORSIA, see CarbonBrief (2019) and Lee (2018). Airlines are facing mounting pressure from governments, the public and media. In October 2019, the United Kingdom’s House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee opened an inquiry into sustainable tourism, noting specifically the country’s goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, including aviation 6 Airline initiatives to reduce climate impact 1. INTRODUCTION ↪ 1.2 THE URGENCY OF CLIMATE ACTION 1.2 The urgency of climate action and shipping as outlined in the amended UK Climate Change Act. In particular, The most recent 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) report by the Intergovernmental the Committee is seeking inputs to inform the development of the aviation Panel on Climate Change calls for drastic reductions in GHG emissions. It strategy to 2050. Elsewhere, the UK Department of Transport (2019) is calling concludes that staying within the safe boundaries of global warming to no for evidence on the use of carbon offsetting in transport