Integrated Environmental Strategies Philippines Project Report Metropolitan Manila Focus on the Transport Sector Prepared by Manila Observatory, PHILIPPINES http://www.observatory.ph June 2005 Contents Executive Summary ……….........................…………………………………… 1 1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background: Metropolitan Manila, Philippines ...................................................... 1 2 Objective of the project ....................................................................... 2 3 Concept of the framework ................................................................... 2 4 Scoping Decision and Policies Considered .......................... 2 5 Methodology .................................................................................................. 3 5.1 Scenario Development.............................................................................................. 3 5.2 Air Pollutant Concentrations.................................................................................... 6 5.2.1 The ISCLT3 Model ..................................................................................................... 6 5.2.2 Emissions Inventory ................................................................................................... 6 5.2.3 Modelling Results ........................................................................................................ 7 5.3 Health Effects Estimation ...................................................................................... 8 5.4 Economic Valuation .............................................................................................. 9 6 Results ............................................................................................................... 10 6.1 Scenario Development ............................................................................................ 10 6.2 Air Dispersion Modelling Results ......................................................................... 12 6.3 Health Impacts of Each Scenario ........................................................................... 14 6.4 Economic Costs of the Health Damages Averted by Each Policy Scenario........ 16 6.5 Co-Benefits Results of Each Policy Scenario in terms of Emission Reduction .. ................................................................................................................ .. 17 7 Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................ 18 7.1 General Conclusions and Recommendations ...................................................... 18 7.2 Other Recommendations ........................................................................................ 19 i Project Report 1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 20 1.1 Background: Metropolitan Manila, Philippines ...................................................... 20 1.2 Objective of the Project .......................................................................................... 21 1.3 Organization of the Report ..................................................................................... 21 2 Conceptual Framework ........................................................................ 22 3 Focus on the Transport Sector ...................................................... 23 3.1 Background ............................................................................................................. 23 3.2 Scoping Decisions and Policies Considered ....................................................... 24 4 Methodology ................................................................................................... 25 4.1 Scenario Development ............................................................................................. 25 4.1.1 Criteria for Selection of Policy Measures..................................................................... 25 4.1.2 Analytical Framework .................................................................................................. 26 4.1.3 Estimation of Travel Demands.................................................................................... 26 4.1.3.1 Study Area and Zoning System................................................................................... 26 4.1.3.2 Socio-Economic Characteristics.................................................................................. 28 4.1.3.3 Transportation Network Characteristics....................................................................... 29 4.1.3.4 The Four-Step Model................................................................................................... 31 4.1.3.5 Additional Procedures for Estimation of Transportation Demand................................ 32 4.1.3.6 Calculation of Vehicle-Kilometers ............................................................................... 33 4.1.4 Estimation of Vehicle Emissions.................................................................................. 34 4.1.4.1 Emission Factors for Particulate Matter (PM) .............................................................. 35 4.1.4.2 Emission Factors for CO2............................................................................................ 35 4.1.5 Description of Scenarios: Policy Elements and Assumptions...................................... 36 4.1.5.1 “BAU” Scenario – Baseline or Business-as-usual ...................................................... 38 4.1.5.2 “MVIS” Scenario – Implementation of the Motor Vehicle Inspection System ............. 39 4.1.5.3 “TDM” Scenario – Transportation Demand Management ........................................... 40 4.1.5.4 “4STC” Scenario – Replacement of 2-Stroke with 4-Stroke Motorcycles for Tricycles .................. 41 4.1.5.5 “BWMK” Scenario – Construction of Bikeways in Marikina ........................................ 41 4.1.5.6 “BWMM” Scenario – Construction of Bikeways in Metro Manila ................................ 42 4.1.5.7 “Rail 2015” Scenario – Expansion of the Metropolitan Railway Network by 2015 .......................................................................................................................... 42 4.1.5.8 “DPTBJ” Scenario – Diesel Particulate Trap (DPT) for Buses and Jeepneys ............ 43 4.1.5.9 “DPTB” Scenario – Diesel Particulate Trap (DPT) for Buses ..................................... 43 4.1.5.10 “CNGB” Scenario – Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for Buses ................................ 43 4.1.5.11 “CMEJ” Scenario – Coco-methyl ester (CME) for Jeepneys ...................................... 45 4.2 Air Pollutant Concentrations .................................................................................. 47 4.2.1 The ISCLT3 Model....................................................................................................... 47 4.2.2 Inputs and Assumptions .............................................................................................. 48 4.2.3 Emissions Inventory..................................................................................................... 50 4.2.4 Modeling Results ......................................................................................................... 54 4.3 Health Effects Estimations .................................................................................... 55 4.3.1 Health Impact Assessment......................................................................................... 55 4.3.2 PM10 As Pollutant Indicator for Health Impact............................................................ 56 ii 4.3.3 Exposure Response Function...................................................................................... 57 4.3.4 Health Outcome Variables........................................................................................... 58 4.3.5 Health Outcome Variables and Corresponding Exposure Response Coefficients ...... 60 4.3.6 Mortality Endpoint: Premature Mortality....................................................................... 61 4.3.7 Morbidity Studies ......................................................................................................... 61 4.3.8 Other Health Variables Considered............................................................................. 63 4.3.9 Summary of Assumptions............................................................................................ 63 4.4 Economic Valuation ............................................................................................... 64 4.4.1 Assumptions (PHMAP, 2003)...................................................................................... 64 4.4.2 Benefits Transfer ......................................................................................................... 65 5 Results and Discussions ..................................................................... 68 5.1 Impact of Scenarios on Travel Demand ............................................................... 68 5.1.1 Total Travel Demand ................................................................................................... 68 5.1.1.1 Year 2005 .................................................................................................................... 69 5.1.1.2 Year 2010 .................................................................................................................... 70 5.1.1.3