September 2019 #73 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ Does Pre-Season Buzz Really Matter? By Steve Sternberg The broadcast networks traditionally unveil their fall schedules in May and promote them to potential viewers throughout the summer. Ad-supported cable networks tend to debut much of their new original scripted series between June and August (when the broadcast networks air mostly repeats, reality, and game shows), although some new shows do premiere in the fall and winter as well. Streaming services, such as Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, and CBS All Access, don’t adhere to traditional concepts of seasons, and drop new series whenever they are ready to go, or simply when they think it is the best time to do so. Some TV shows generate a considerable amount of buzz before they premiere, while others fly under the radar. This raises some obvious questions. Bosch – “the best procedural drama on television.” Fleabag – “a uniquely inventive gem.” -The Sternberg Report _ The Sternberg Report ©2019 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ • How much does pre-season buzz affect a new show’s success potential? • Does it matter more for certain types of shows than for others? • Does it matter more for broadcast or cable series? • Does it matter more for one network versus another? • How have the sources, level, and impact of buzz changed over the years? Sources of Pre-Season Buzz Up until the mid-2000s, the broadcast networks aired almost exclusively repeats during the summer and there was virtually no television-based news than previewing new fall series. This provided ample time to create buzz. That was before cable networks aired numerous original scripted series during those months, the broadcast networks started airing reality, game shows, and limited run series, and streaming services began to grow. Viewers’ attention now turns to new broadcast series later and later each season. Syndicated news magazine series such as Entertainment Tonight, Extra, and Access Hollywood, along with newspapers and magazines such as People and Entertainment Weekly, used to be the main sources of new series promotion and buzz. I was among the pundits appearing on Entertainment Tonight every year discussing my agency’s projected new season hits (when I was head of TV Research at Bozell, TN Media, and Magna Global). My reports, as well as others from my agency peers would also be quoted in the consumer and trade printed and online press (New York Times, USA Today, TV Guide, Ad Age, Broadcasting & Cable, MediaPost, etc.). Over the past decade, social media has become a key component in promoting new series as well. In 2009, Glee became the first network series to become successful because of online promotion. It 2 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2019 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ debuted to relatively low ratings following that year’s American Idol finale in May. But virtually non- stop promotion, online music videos and behind-the-scenes clips, generated a tremendous amount of buzz, turning the show into a hit when it premiered the following fall. The Comic Con Effect Studios send reps to the big pop-culture Comic Con event in San Diego every July, where series stars and producers join panels geared to generating pre-season buzz among hardcore fans, which the network publicity machines try to make sure will spill over to the general public. Anything related to superheroes or sci-fi generates a significant amount of buzz. Stars of returning and new series also show up at the various smaller comic cons across the country throughout the year (although more stars from cable than broadcast series attend those). The New York Comic Con takes place in October, and now rivals the San Diego event in both size and the number of all-star panels. Here’s a look at the major TV show related panels and presentations at this year’s San Diego Comic Con and those planned for the upcoming New York Comic Con. While the production studios typically host these events, I’m listing them based on the network or streaming service that airs them. Following the New York Comic Con in the first week of October, I will be issuing a more in-depth report on these and other pop-culture conventions that take place across the country every year. Several of them draw more than 100,000 attendees annually. 3 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2019 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ San Diego Comic Con 2019 TV Panels ABC Emergence (new), Stumptown (new), Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., The Rookie CBS Evil (new) CW Batwoman (new), Nancy Drew (new), Legacies, Arrow, Supergirl, Black Lightning, The Flash, Supernatural, Riverdale FOX Prodigal Son (new), Bless the Harts (new), NeXt (new), Bob’s Burgers, What Just Happened?, The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Orville NBC Superstore, The Good Place, Brooklyn Nine Nine Adult Swim Robot Chicken, Rick and Morty, Primal (new) AMC The Walking Dead, Fear the Walking Dead, The Terror: Infamy, Preacher, NOS4A2 Cartoon Transformers: Cyberverse, Teen Titans GO, DC Super Hero Girls, Infinity Train (new) Comedy Central Crank Yankers Disney Channel Ducktales FX What We Do In the Shadows, Mayans M.C. FXX Archer History Project Blue Book Nickelodeon SpongeBob SquarePants (20th anniversary) SYFY Van Helsing, Wynonna Earp, The Magicians TBS American Dad, Snowpiercer (new) Travel Ghost Adventures Live! Epix Pennyworth (new) HBO Game of Thrones, Westworld, His Dark Materials (new) Starz The Rook Amazon Prime Undone (new), The Boys (new), Carnival Row (new), The Expanse, The Man in the High Castle CBS All Access Star Trek Discovery, Star Trek: Picard (new), Star Trek: Lower Decks (new) DC Universe Harley Quinn (new), Titans, Doom Patrol, Young Justice: Outsiders Hulu Veronica Mars, Solar Opposites (new) Netflix The Order, Cursed (new), The Witcher (new), The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance (new) Shudder Creepshow YouTube Cobra Kai, Impulse 4 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2019 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ New York Comic Con 2019 TV Panels (scheduled as of this writing) ABC Emergence (new) CBS Evil (new) CW Charmed, Riverdale, Roswell, New Mexico, Black Lightning, Legacies, Nancy Drew (new), Katy Keene (new) FOX Prodigal Son (new), NeXt (new) NBC Manifest, Lincoln (new) Adult Swim Robot Chicken, One Punch Man, Primal (new) AMC The Walking Dead, Untitled third Walking Dead series (new) Disney Channel The Owl House (new) FX DEVS FXX Archer Nickelodeon Spongebob Squarepants, Are You Afraid of te Dark SYFY Deadly Class TBS Full Frontal With Samantha Bee, The Misery Index (new), Snowpiercer (new) TNT All Elite Wrestling (new) TruTV Impractical Jokers, Tacoma FD HBO Watchmen (new) Starz Outlander Amazon Prime Jack Ryan, The Expanse CBS All Access Tell Me a Story, Star Trek: Discovery, Star Trek: Picard (new) DC Universe Titans, Harley Quinn (new) Disney+ Marvel’s Hero Project (new) Hulu Marvel’s Runaways, Castle Rock, Reprisal (new), The Orville (formerly on FOX) Netflix Big Mouth, Lost in Space, 13 Reasons Why, She-Ra and the Princesses of Power, The Dragon Prince, Castlevania, Daybreak (new), SEIS MANOS (new), The Last Kids on Earth (new) Shudder Creepshow YouTube Impulse 5 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2019 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ Impact of Pre-Season Buzz A number of new series with strong pre-season buzz have become instant successes (e.g., Desperate Housewives, Glee, The Walking Dead, Better Call Saul, and This is Us), while others have failed to find an audience (see Bionic Woman, Flash Forward, The Bastard Executioner, Pitch, and the Murphy Brown reboot). Many series that received little pre-season notice became long-running hits (examples include, NCIS, Grey’s Anatomy, Mad Men, The Big Bang Theory, Sons of Anarchy, and Rizzoli & Isles, to name just a few). It is interesting, and perhaps counter-intuitive that over the past 15 or 20 years, the success rate of all new broadcast television series has been essentially the same as those that generated the most pre-season buzz – roughly one-third. It’s also interesting to note that of all the series which have succeeded during the same period, about two-thirds did not receive a significant amount of pre- season buzz. Pre-season buzz seems to have more of an impact on cable series, primarily because there are fewer of them and their ratings threshold for success is significantly lower than for broadcast networks. They also often appeal to a more niche audience to whom it is easier to promote. Since 2001, half of the most buzzed about new ad-supported cable shows became successful. But there were nearly four times as many cable series that became hits without the benefit pre-season buzz. One of the biggest factors here, of course, is that unlike the broadcast networks, cable nets long ago realized the benefit of cross-promoting one another’s programming. There are several reasons why pre-season buzz has traditionally