EMS Annual Meeting 2019 European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2019 PROGRAMME COPENHAGEN, DENMARK | 9–13 SEPTEMBER 2019 The Arctic: the new frontier for weather, ice and climate research, forecasting, and services © Lise Lotte Sørensen EMS2019: Session programme Day & Time Oticon Hall Glass Hall M1 S1 S9 S4 Poster Sessions Date Mon, 09:30-11:00 Opening 20 years EMS Mon, 11:30-12:45 Awards Part I Mon, 14:00-16:00 ES1.1 UP2.4 UP1.5 UP3.6 OSA1.11 ES1.7 Harry Otten Mon, 16:30-18:00 UP2.8 (5) UP2.9 UP1.5 OSA1.2 ES1.7 Prize - Finalists 9 Sept Townhall Mon, 18:15-19:00 Meeting ES1.1, ES1.7, OSA1.11, Mon, 19:15-20:30 Ice breaker & poster session & networking: Sports Hall UP1.5, UP2.8, UP3.6 Tue, 09:00-09:30 Keynote OSA Tue, 09:30-10:00 Awards Part II OSA1.2, UP1.5, Tue, 10:00-11:00 poster session & networking & refreshment break: Sports Hall UP2.4, UP2.9 Tue, 11:00-13:00 ES1.2 UP1.7 UP1.5 UP3.5 OSA2.1 OSA3.7 10 Sept Tue, 14:00-16:00 UP3.1 UP1.7 OSA1.10 UP3.5 OSA1.3 UP2.2 Tue, 16:30-18:30 UP3.1 OSA2.3 OSA1.9 OSA2.2 UP2.1 UP2.2 OSA1.10, UP1.7 Wed, 09:00-09:30 Keynote ES ES1.2, ES1.3, OSA1.3, OSA1.9, Wed, 09:30-10:30 poster session & networking & refreshment break: Sports Hall OSA2.1, OSA2.2, OSA2.3, OSA3.7, UP2.1, UP2.2, UP3.1, UP3.5 Wed, 10:30-12:30 UP2.6 OSA2.3 UP1.3 ES1.3 OSA1.5 11 Sept Wed, 13:30-15:30 UP2.6 ES2.1 UP1.3 UP3.2 OSA1.5 Wed 16:00-18:00 UP1.6 ES2.1/ES3.2 UP3.7 UP3.2 OSA1.7 Thur, 09:00-09:30 Keynote UP ES2.1, OSA1.5, OSA1.7, OSA3.5, Thur, 09:30-10:30 poster session & networking & refreshment break: Sports Hall UP1.3, UP1.6, UP2.5, UP2.6, UP2.7, UP3.2, UP3.7 Thur, 10:30-12:30 UP1.1 OSA3.3 UP2.5 UP1.6 OSA3.4 ES3.1 12 Sept Thur, 13:30-15:30 UP1.1 OSA3.2 OSA2.4 UP2.7 OSA3.5 UP1.4 Thur, 16:00-18:00 UP1.2 OSA3.1 OSA2.4 UP3.4 ES1.6 UP2.3 Fri, 09:00-10:30 UP1.2 UP3.3 ES1.4 OSA1.6 ES1.6 ES1.4, ES1.6, OSA1.4/ES1.5, OSA1.6, OSA2.4, OSA3.1, OSA3.2, OSA3.3, Fri, 10:30-11:30 poster session & networking & refreshment break: Sports Hall OSA3.4, UP1.1, UP1.2, UP1.4, UP2.3, UP3.3, UP3.4 13 Sept Fri, 11:30-13:30 UP1.2 UP3.3 OSA1.4/ES1.5 OSA1.6 ES2.2 Fri, 13:50-14:30 Closing reception: Sports Hall Day & Time Oticon Hall Glass Hall M1 S1 S9 S4 Date The EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2019 is organized in co-operation with the Copernicus GmbH. http://meetings.copernicus.org Content 1 Welcome 2 Good to know … 3 General information, WiFi, ems2019-app 3 Registration information 4 Breaks & social events 5 Publications 6 Committees 6 Excursions 8 Exhibition 9 Opening session & Townhall meeting 15 Awards session 17 Award lectures 23 Keynote presentations 24 Side meetings 25 About the session programme 27 Session index 30 Conference Programme Oral Conference Programme – Monday 33 Poster Conference Programme – Monday 42 Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday 47 Poster Conference Programme – Tuesday 61 Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday 67 Poster Conference Programme – Wednesday 78 Oral Conference Programme – Thursday 87 Poster Conference Programme – Thursday 100 Oral Conference Programme – Friday 109 Poster Conference Programme – Friday 115 Author & convener index 124 Floor plan 128 EMS Annual Meeting 2019 | 9–13 September 2019 | Copenhagen, Denmark THE ARCTIC: THE NEW FRONTIER FOR WEATHER, ICE AND CLIMATE RESEARCH, FORECASTING, AND SERVICES Dear participants, welcome to the EMS The exhibition – use the opportunity Annual Meeting 2019 in Copenhagen. The conference will feature a small exhibition The Annual Meeting of the EMS – the conference involving manufacturers of meteorological for applied meteorology and climatology – aims instruments, research projects, a publisher and to foster the exchange and cross-fertilization NGOs. It will be open from Monday lunchtime of ideas in the meteorological, climatological to Thursday afternoon and we hope you will and related communities, focusing particularly make use of the opportunity to find out about on applications, science and strategic issues the recent developments and plans of these relevant to the future of these disciplines in organisations. Europe. Facilitating interactions, integration Early career scientists and engagement of science, applications, and About a third of the EMS Annual Meeting actors is our core objective. The particular participants are early career scientists. To focus of the Annual Meeting in 2019, reflecting increase the benefit for those at the start the interests and activities of the host country, of their career, an event has been devised is on Arctic issues and challenges. that will offer opportunities and first steps The changes we witness in surface to mentoring support. Experienced actors temperature, sea-ice and permafrost can have with diverse backgrounds in all sectors of the dramatic impacts on the ecology and societies weather enterprise will be ready to answer of the Arctic, raising issues for future safety, and discuss any questions about topics such socio-economic impacts and infrastructure as job perspectives, career path options, investments. Moreover, this Arctic amplification building networks. All early career scientists are may affect mid-latitudes, possibly with more invited to this one-hour mentoring event, but frequent extreme weather events, and thus registration is mandatory. needs dedicated attention. Guided tours The EMS 2019 Annual Meeting will address these DMI, the Danish Meteorological Institute, issues in an integrated and comprehensive will offer visits to its headquarters during the way. conference on two afternoons. The Niels-Bohr The programme Institute of the University of Copenhagen will The session programme includes 400 poster also offer a visit to its archive of ice cores. and 450 oral presentations in 52 sessions. All Thank you these presentations share the essential role of We are grateful to all who have contributed to the conference – offering diverse opportunities make this meeting in Copenhagen a reality – the for discussions and promoting the work of the local organising committee, the EMS Member various authors. Poster sessions are scheduled Societies and Associates, the Copernicus in the mornings after the plenary sessions, and organisation, the exhibitors, and the volunteer 10:30-11:30 on Friday. helpers. Side meetings, workshops and the social To build the session programme would not programme will provide many additional have been possible without the work of the opportunities for networking at the conference. convenors who developed and promoted Make ample use of these – this is the raison the sessions. Our thanks to all of them for d’être of the meetings. their commitment and hard work! We are Detailed and up-to-date information about the also grateful to the Programme and Science session programme is available through the Committee (PSC) for having devised a very ems2019-app for mobile devices. interesting programme. We hope you will enjoy and benefit from the wealth of research, results and applications that will be presented and discussed during the week. Bob Riddaway Sven-Erik Gryning Marianne Thyrring Peter Hauge Madsen EMS President President, Danish Director Danish Director, DTU Wind Meteorological Society Meteorological Institute Energy Department Good to know … 3 Good to know … Rules of conduct . Smoking is prohibited in the conference General information, WiFi, venue. ems2019-app It is prohibited to copy any presentation from the desktops in the lecture rooms. About this programme book . Please switch off any mobile phones or set them in mute mode during the The EMS aims at making the Annual Meeting sessions. more sustainable and to minimize the use of . Harassment, intimidation, or resources. During the abstract submission, discrimination of any kind will not be authors were asked to indicate whether a tolerated at any event associated with printed programme book is needed. 80% of the EMS2019. the authors indicated that they would not . Please note that video and photo need a programme book. Thus, only a recordings of scientific material limited number of programme books is shown in any oral or poster available on request. Copies for everyone's presentations are not allowed unless the use will be distributed around the presenter authorizes it. Presenters are conference venue; personal copies will be encouraged to inform the audience if handed out on request at the registration they welcome photos or sharing on desk. The PDF file of the programme book is social media by including the official also available for download on the website. graphic "photography encouraged” or "photography NOT allowed" on your The mobile app with continuous updates presentation . and the EMS2019 website offer the option of generating and printing your own personal Insurances programme. The organisers cannot accept liability for Venue personal accident, loss, or damage to private property which may be incurred as a result The EMS Annual Meeting: European of participation in the conference. Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2019 is held at DTU in Lyngby, Participants are therefore advised to arrange appropriate insurance cover. This Denmark, from 9 to 13 September 2019. should extend not only to travel but also to cancellation costs. Technical University of Denmark DTU Mødecenter Photos, webcasts, graphics Anker Engelundsvej 1 Parts of the EMS Annual Meeting 2019 will Building 101B be recorded.