Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2009-06 In the shadow of the Durand Line security, stability, and the future of Pakistan and Afghanistan Janjua, Muhammad Qaiser. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/4778 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS IN THE SHADOW OF THE DURAND LINE: SECURITY, STABILITY, AND THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN by Muhammad Qaiser Janjua June 2009 Thesis Advisor: Marcos (Mark T.) Berger Second Reader: Douglas A. Borer Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2009 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE In the Shadow of the Durand Line: Security, 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Stability, and the Future of Pakistan and Afghanistan 6. AUTHOR(S) Janjua, Muhammad Qaiser 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT The Durand Line (Pak-Afghan border) gained international attention during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The government of Afghanistan’s refusal to acknowledge the Durand Line as the official border with Pakistan has serious implications in relation to Global War on Terror (GWOT), especially in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The atmosphere of misunderstanding and mistrust in relation to the border between the two neighbors for the last six decades casts a shadow over any effort to achieve security and stability in the region. Pakistan’s weak hold over FATA and Baluchistan has provided space in which extremist groups, such as Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, have been able to establish bases, training camps, seek refuge and currently conduct cross-border attacks into Afghanistan. This thesis looks at the history and contemporary significance of the Durand Line in detail. It argues that a key imperative of future operations in region is the need for the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan to come to an agreement that delineates the official border (currently the Durand Line) between the two nation-states. Until there is a border that is recognized by all concerned, their ability to cooperate with each other and their allies deal with Al-Qaeda and the Taliban and a range of other issues remains profoundly constrained. The future of Afghanistan and Pakistan is dependent on a range of levels with dealing with the unresolved border issue that has hung over both countries since Pakistan was carved out of British India in 1947. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Pakistan, Afghanistan, Instability and Insecurity, Durand Line, Pak- 15. NUMBER OF Afghan Border, Pashtunistan, Baluchistan, Afghan Refugees, Federally Administered Tribal PAGES Areas (FATA), Global War on Terror (GWOT) 117 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited IN THE SHADOW OF THE DURAND LINE: SECURITY, STABILITY AND THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN Muhammad Qaiser Janjua Wing Commander, Pakistan Air Force B.Sc, Peshawar University, 1987 B.Sc (Hons), Karachi University, 2001 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2009 Author: Muhammad Qaiser Janjua Approved by: Professor Marcos (Mark T.) Berger Thesis Advisor Professor Douglas A. Borer Second Reader Professor Gordon McCormick Chairman, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The Durand Line (Pak-Afghan border) gained international attention during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The government of Afghanistan’s refusal to acknowledge the Durand Line as the official border with Pakistan has serious implications in relation to Global War on Terror (GWOT), especially in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The atmosphere of misunderstanding and mistrust in relation to the border between the two neighbors for the last six decades casts a shadow over any effort to achieve security and stability in the region. Pakistan’s weak hold over FATA and Baluchistan has provided space in which extremist groups, such as Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, have been able to establish bases, training camps, seek refuge and currently conduct cross-border attacks into Afghanistan. This thesis looks at the history and contemporary significance of the Durand Line in detail. It argues that a key imperative of future operations in region is the need for the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan to come to an agreement that delineates the official border (currently the Durand Line) between the two nation- states. Until there is a border that is recognized by all concerned, their ability to cooperate with each other and their allies deal with Al-Qaeda and the Taliban and a range of other issues remains profoundly constrained. The future of Afghanistan and Pakistan is dependent on a range of levels with dealing with the unresolved border issue that has hung over both countries since Pakistan was carved out of British India in 1947. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1 A. BACKGROUND: FROM THE GREAT GAME TO THE GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR .............................................................................. 1 B. RESEARCH QUESTION: SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DURAND LINE ..................................................................................................... 6 C. METHODOLOGY AND THESIS OVERVIEW: A CRITICAL QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DURAND LINE........................... 9 D. CONCLUSION ................................................................................... 11 II. IN THE SHADOW OF THE DURAND LINE: ITS HISTORY AND CONTEMPORARY SIGNIFICANCE............................................................. 13 A. INTRODUCTION................................................................................ 13 B. HISTORY: THE GREAT GAME......................................................... 14 C. THE RISE OF ABDUR REHMAN ...................................................... 16 D. THE RUSSIAN THREAT? ................................................................. 18 E. THE DURAND COMMISSION AND THE AGREEMENT................... 20 F. THE STATUS OF THE DURAND LINE ............................................. 22 G. DEMARCATION OF THE BORDERS................................................ 23 1. The Khyber Demarcation Commission................................ 24 2. The Kurram-Afghan Commission......................................... 25 3. The Baluch-Afghan Commission ......................................... 25 4. The Fourth Commission........................................................ 26 H. VALIDITY OF THE DURAND LINE AGREEMENT............................ 27 I. AFGHANISTAN’S STANCE .............................................................. 29 J. PAKISTAN’S STANCE ...................................................................... 30 K. PAK-AFGHAN RELATIONS.............................................................. 30 L. THE DURAND LINE AND THE SOVIET INVASION OF AFGHANISTAN ................................................................................. 31 M. CONCLUSION ................................................................................... 32 III. THE HISTORY AND SIGNIFICANCE OF PASHTUNISTAN AND THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF BALUCHISTAN........................................ 35 A. INTRODUCTION................................................................................ 35 B. BACKGROUND ................................................................................. 35 C. HISTORY OF NWFP.......................................................................... 38 D. KHUDAI KHIDMATGAR AND THE PASHTUNISTAN ISSUE .......... 39 E. INDIAN INVOLVEMENT .................................................................... 41 F. AFGHANISTAN’S INTEREST ..........................................................