Minnesota Twins Daily Clips Wednesday, February 10, 2016 How will Twins' rotation shape up? MLB.com (Bollinger) p. 1 Some projections foresee payoff for Twins' build-from-within gamble. Star Tribune (Miller) p. 2 Why Twins pitcher Casey Fien has eye on New Hampshire primary. Pioneer Press (Berardino) p. 3 Twins pitcher Trevor May's website features cat section. FOX Sports North p. 4 Year After Effect: Five pitchers at injury risk. SI.com (Verducci) p. 5 How will Twins' rotation shape up? Rhett Bollinger | MLB.com | February 9, 2016 Spring Training is almost here, as Twins pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 21 with the first workout set for Feb. 22. Plenty will be decided during spring, including the Opening Day rotation, which brings us to this week's Twins Inbox: How do you see the rotation shaping up this spring? Do youngsters such as Tyler Duffey, Trevor May or Jose Berrios have a chance? -- Matt S., Fargo, N.D. Barring injury, right-handers Kyle Gibson, Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes are essentially locks to make the rotation, leaving open two spots for Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, Duffey, May and Berrios. Milone was solid for the Twins last year, posting a 3.92 ERA in 24 outings, and his stuff doesn't exactly translate to a bullpen role as a soft-tossing lefty. So Milone will certainly be given every chance to make the rotation. Nolasco is the biggest wild card, as his struggles over the past two years have been well-documented. But he's also owed $24 million over the next two seasons, and the Twins aren't likely to cut bait. There's a chance Nolasco will start the year in the bullpen, but that's a lot to be paying for a long reliever. Duffey has the best chance to make the rotation among the three youngsters, as he was impressive down the stretch for the Twins last year with a 3.10 ERA in 10 starts. May is a strong candidate to be in the bullpen instead of the rotation, while Berrios is likely to start at Triple-A Rochester. The Twins said all offseason they were looking to sign a lefty reliever, but they haven't. Who are some lefty options in the bullpen? -- Pat B., Red Wing, Minn. The Twins have signed a few lefty relievers to Minor League deals, including Fernando Abad, Buddy Boshers and Dan Runzler. Abad is the most likely of that group to make the team, as he posted a 2.74 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 105 innings over the past two seasons. Internally, the Twins have lefties Ryan O'Rourke, Logan Darnell and Aaron Thompson, while hard-throwing prospect Mason Melotakis was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. The Twins also picked up lefty Mike Strong on waivers. Another name to keep an eye on is lefty Taylor Rogers, who has been a starter in the Minors but is expected to get a look in relief this spring. After seeing the tremendous positive effect veteran Torii Hunter had on the young players last year, teaching them how to win and how to be Major Leaguers, why is there any hesitation about bringing in a similar type of veteran to take on the same role this year to keep the progression going that was started last year? -- Doug F., Faribault, Minn. While the Twins will miss Hunter's leadership, they feel like they can fill that void internally and that Hunter's main messages already have been passed on to youngsters. And it's not like Hunter has gone away -- he still texts regularly with several players, including Byron Buxton, and he'll be a special instructor in Spring Training. But of the current roster, Brian Dozier is the most likely to step up and be the club's vocal leader this season. Who are the Twins counting on to be the fourth outfielder, or will they trade for a fourth outfielder? -- Everett J., Stillwater, Minn. I don't see the Twins trading for a fourth outfielder, as they have several internal candidates, including Danny Santana and Oswaldo Arcia, who are out of options. They could keep both players on the roster with Santana being a super utility player, while Arcia could see spot time in the outfield and at designated hitter. The Twins also signed veteran Carlos Quentin to a Minor League deal, and the two-time All-Star will get a chance to make the roster, but he is considered somewhat of a long shot considering he didn't play in the Majors in 2015. But he can at least serve as a mentor to young outfielders such as Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Buxton. Some projections foresee payoff for Twins' build-from-within gamble Phil Miller | Star Tribune | February 9, 2016 I came across an interesting post on Fangraphs.com recently, one that really reflects the Twins’ team-building strategy, at least for 2016. It’s titled “The Hidden Moves of the Offseason,” and it’s basically a reminder that acquiring players from outside the organization — via trades and free-agent signings — may be what monopolizes your attention (and your emotions) over the winter, but it’s not the only factor that improves a team. In short: Some players get better. Some get a lot better. In an offseason with only one notable trade (Hicks for Murphy) and one free-agent signing (Byung Ho Park) by the Twins, it’s clear that general manager Terry Ryan and his staff are banking on their young players taking big steps forward this year, a not-indefensible gamble — but a gamble nevertheless. As their experience with Aaron Hicks, Danny Santana and Alex Meyer reveals, just in the past couple of seasons alone, high hopes and everyday playing time don’t always turn highly touted prospects into solid major leaguers. Yet Ryan has chosen to stay the course with his farm system this winter, unwilling to deal away any young talent or block that talent’s progression by adding free agents. We can debate the Twins’ motivation for the ultra-patient blueprint, but there is little doubt that if it works, the benefits of winning with homegrown talent could be enormous. So that Fangraphs article held some encouraging news for Twins fans: By their projections, the Twins stand to be one of MLB’s biggest beneficiaries of organic improvement this season. In a chart accompanying the story, the Twins rank eighth in expected improvement by returning players, adding more than 2 1/2 Wins Above Replacement from offensive players who were in uniform last season. That doesn’t necessarily translate into an improved record over last year’s 83-79, given the improvements that other teams have made. And you should take the sabermetric site’s “Steamer” projections for what they’re worth —they can’t foresee injuries or playing-time changes — but they’re at least a somewhat-educated guess about what the Twins’ roster might produce this season. And they’re certainly intriguing. For one thing, all that improvement from the regulars comes, the site projects, despite some moderate steps backwards by Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe, two of the Twins’ most reliable veterans. The projections see Dozier regressing from 3.4 WAR last year, a borderline All-Star, to 2.7, probably a reflection of his late-season slump. Plouffe loses 40 percent of his value, the projections say, going from 2.5 WAR to 1.5, with his defense being especially problematic. The biggest predicted dropoff, however, belongs to Eddie Rosario, the 24-year-old outfielder who faces a severe sophomore slump, according to Fangraphs. Rosario produced 2.3 WAR last year, but that number will tumble to 1.0 this year, the projections say, with his lack of plate discipline (just 15 walks last year) catching up to him. The good news? Well, it’s pretty obvious: Miguel Sano is expected to play six months, not just three. His WAR of 2.0 in three months last season jumps to a projected 3.4 in 2016, and that’s despite a sizable penalty for his defense as he learns to play right field. More specifically, those “Steamer” projections say the Twins can expect 32 homers, 27 doubles and yes, a franchise-record 174 strikeouts. Byron Buxton has a similarly rosy future, the projections say, contributing 1.5 WAR this season. Most of the value comes from defense, since the system expects him to hit just .258 with a .309 on-base percentage, but the Twins would take that after a disappointing (and injury-plagued) minus-.5 2 debut in 2015. Also expected to improve: Joe Mauer, from .3 WAR last year to 1.3 in 2016, and Kurt Suzuki, bouncing back from a minus-.1 season to add .8 WAR. And Oswaldo Arcia, a washout last season, is projected to hit 11 home runs in 248 plate appearances, a .4 WAR contribution that could make him a major leaguer again. Pitching is even harder to project, so I won’t break down the numbers. Safe to say, though, that fangraphs’ site sees a comeback season from Phil Hughes, a standard full season from Ervin Santana, and even some value from Ricky Nolasco, along with a bit of regression from Kyle Gibson. The point is, it may be too optimistic to predict much improvement in the Twins’ record this year, with so many players lacking extensive experience. But it’s not hard to envision the Twins’ gamble on improvement from within showing signs of paying off this season.