DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK Landscape Vulnerability Decision Support Framework Landscape Vulnerability Decision Support Framework This Landscape Vulnerability Decision Support Framework (DSF) has been prepared by the OneWorld Sustainable Investments team on the Transforming Landscapes for Resilience and Development in Northern and Southern Zambia (TRALARD-Zam) project, under the auspices of the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR). The PPCR is a targeted program with dedicated multi-donor funding that, in Zambia, has the overall objective of mainstreaming climate resilience into core development planning. This DSF was based on research conducted between October and December 2017. Feedback from participants in the Provincial Participatory Analysis Workshop held 21st-23rd November, 2017 has been incorporated wherever possible. In addition, this document draws on and is supported by the Technical Background Document (TBD), which comprises material developed in the earlier phases of this project and the ‘sister’ Landscape Vulnerability Risk Assessment Baseline project. Finally, this DSF draws on material developed for the Strengthening Climate Resilience in the Kafue Sub-Basin (SCRiKA) project, particularly the Training Manual, which was carried out during 2016. Citation Petrie, B., Rawlins, J., Tsilik, P., Chapman, A., Kalaba, J. (2018). Transforming Landscapes for Resilience and Development in Northern and Southern Zambia (TRALARD-Zam) Project: Landscape Vulnerability Decision Support Framework. OneWorld Sustainable Investments. Cape Town, South Africa Acknowledgements We would like to thank representatives of the World Bank and the Zambian PPCR Implementation Unit for their support of and inputs to this project. We also thank the participants of the TRALARD-Northern Zambia Provincial Participatory Analysis Workshop, held in Mansa, Luapula Province (21st–23rd November 2017), for their valuable insights and inputs towards this Landscape Vulnerability Decision Support Framework, and the process of its validation. Special thanks to the Reference Group, appointed at the Mansa workshop as representative of the broader group of participants and who have provided inputs and validation of this Framework. We would also like to thank Rob Davies and Tim Wroblewski, habitat INFO, for their valuable technical assistance with Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based mapping in support of this project. We also thank Morgan Katati for his help with stakeholder facilitation and support. 18 January 2018 COMPILED BY: OneWorld Sustainable Investments (OneWorld) is a climate and development consultancy and partner based in South Africa and operating across the African continent. OneWorld produces applied research, strategy development, policy analysis, thought leadership and interventions towards resilient development together with its partners and programme beneficiaries. For more information, see www.oneworldgroup.co.za. Disclaimer The development of this material was funded by the World Bank. However, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the official policies or views of the World Bank or the PPCR. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the World Bank does not take responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of its contents and shall not be liable for loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. Photographic credits Dania Petrik; Thobeka Poswa;Ninara/Flikr.com; Jonathan Rawlins; Felix Kalaba Design Peter Bosman ([email protected]) Table of Contents List of figures, tables and case studies ... iv Abbreviations and Acronyms ... v Introduction ... 1 DECISION STEP 1 Understanding Climate Risk and Vulnerability – Status Quo ... 9 DECISION STEP 2 Strengthening Adaptive Capacity ... 21 DECISION STEP 3 Cause and Effect Pathways ... 29 DECISION STEP 4 Identifying Possible Interventions for Climate Resilience ... 35 DECISION STEP 5 Understanding Climate Risk and Vulnerability – Climate Futures ... 43 DECISION STEP 6 Priority Analysis ... 55 DECISION STEP 7 Developing Sustainable Projects ... 63 Glossary of terminology ... 74 Annexures ... 79 Annexures 1 to 6 (provided on Dropbox) 1. Technical Background Document 2. Notes for Facilitators 3. Book of Inputs: Indicators of Exposure 4. Book of Inputs: Indicators of Sensitivity 5. Book of Inputs: Indicators of Adaptive Capacity 6. Indicator weighting tool spreadsheet References and Bibliography ... 86 DROPBOX DIGITAL REPOSITORY The Annexures are stored online and are accessible via Dropbox at the following URL: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/eks2ek0qwzxylqc/AADkCmtz4mDmVR2Ehpyihs-Ra?dl=0 In addition, Annexure 2, Notes for facilitators, appears at the end of this document. CONTENTS iii List of Figures List of Tables Fig 0.1 Interlinked Decision Steps of the Decision Table 1.1 Indicators of Exposure ...12 Support Framework ... 3 Table 1.2. Indicators of Sensitivity ... 13 Figure 1.1. A model of the constituents of Table 1.3. Indicators of Adaptive Capacity ... 14 vulnerability, after the IPCC (2007) ... 11 Table 2.1. Types of Indicators of Adaptive Figure 1.2. Northern Zambia Exposure ... 12 Capacity ... 25 Figure 1.3. Northern Zambia Sensitivity ... 13 Table 7.1. Key Elements of Successful Adaptation Figure 1.4. Northern Zambia Adaptive Capacity ... 14 Projects ... 66 Figure 1.5. Northern Zambia Potential Impact ... 15 Figure 1.6. Northern Zambia Vulnerability ... 16 List of Case Studies Figure 2.1. The 1st–to-4th Order Impact Assessment Case study 1.1. Chiengi, Lunga, Mafinga and Senga Framework evaluates the cascading impacts of Hill ... 17 climate change ... 22 Case study 2.1. How gender equality impacts Figure 2.2. 4th-to-1st Order Impact Assessment for adaptive capacity ... 26 the ‘Lights at Night’ Intervention ... 23 Case study 3.1. Mafinga District and forest Figure 2.3. 4th-to-1st Order Impact Assessment of degradation: Applying the 1st-to-4th Order Impact Increased Gender Equality ... 26 Assessment Tool ... 30 Figure 3.1 Outcomes of the 1st-4th Order Impact Case study 4.1. Mafinga District and deforestation: Assessment in Mafinga District ... 30 Interventions for building resilience ... 38 Figure 4.1. Northern Zambia Potential Impact Case study 6.1. Maize and Maladaptation in (problem areas) ... 39 Zambia ...56 Figure 4.2. Template: Table of Interventions ... 41 Case study 6.2. Entry Points in the Zambian Forestry Figure 5.1. Map of 2050 Projected Exposure for Sector: REDD+ Programme ...58 Northern Zambia ... 45 Case study 6.3. Afforestation in Northern Figure 5.2. Map of 2050 Projected Sensitivity for Zambia ... 60 Northern Zambia ... 46 Case study 6.3. Project implementation: the Figure 5.3. Map of 2050 Projected Adaptive Capacity Lukangaba Joint Forest Management Project ... 71 for Northern Zambia ... 47 Figure 5.4. Map of 2050 Projected Potential Impact for Northern Zambia ... 48 Figure 5.5. Map of 2050 Projected Vulnerability for Northern Zambia ... 49 Figure 6.1. Maize vulnerability in the Kafue Sub-Basin ... 57 Figure 6.2. 4th-to-1st Order Intervention Impact Assessment: Afforestation Initiatives ... 60 Figure 7.1. Project Lifecycle or Logframe – key components ... 64 Figure 7.2. The logical flow of a project lifecycle ... 68 Figure 7.3. The Logical Framework (“logframe”) tool ... 71 iv VULNERABILITY DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK Abbreviations and Acronyms DSF Decision Support Framework ENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) GIS Geographical Information Systems IICCS Interim Inter-Ministerial Climate Change Secretariat IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JFM Joint Forest Management NAPA National Adaptation Plan of Action NLTV National Long-term Vision 2030 NPCC National Policy on Climate Change NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy M&E Monitoring and evaluation REDD+ Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries R&V Risk and Vulnerability SCRiKA Strengthening Climate Resilience in the Kafue Sub-basin project TBD Technical Background Document, supporting TRALARD-Zam Transforming Landscapes for Resilience and Development in Northern and Southern Zambia project UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VRA Vulnerability and Risk Assessment LISTS OF FIGURES • TABLES • CASE STUDIES v vi VULNERABILITY DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK Introduction The Landscape Considering the rural population and poverty dynamics and reliance on the agriculture and fisheries Vulnerability Decision sector in the Northern Region compared to the rest of Support Framework Zambia, it is likely that social and economic costs of climate change will be higher in the North. This Landscape Vulnerability Decision Support Against this background, the Government of Framework (DSF) provides a systematic and integrated Zambia has identified the importance of incorporating process for making decisions to support climate climate change into development processes. Through resilience in Northern Zambia. The DSF comprises a the current publication, the Government is targeting number of tools, along with guidelines and exercises, the Northern Region, through the lens of landscape that together, constitute the process for making vulnerability. However, climate change is a complex informed, evidence-based decisions. and incomplete science that cannot provide absolute Target audience