Cherwell District Summary 2021 Published June 2021 Cherwell Cherwell District Summary 2 Introduction to the District Summary for Cherwell This is a summary report for Cherwell District and includes the following key areas highlighted in the JSNA 2021 Oxfordshire report: Historical and projected population change Public Health England 2021 health summary Key health and wellbeing facts and figures 2021 A district inequalities summary (tartan rug) Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2019 Number of deaths due to all causes and COVID-19 related. Clinically extremely vulnerable people. Historical unemployment and furlough figures. Other resources include: JSNA 2021 Oxfordshire report JSNA Inequalities dashboard Health Needs Assessments Community Health and Wellbeing Profiles EMAIL: [email protected] JSNA Bitesize WEB: insight.oxfordshire.gov.uk/jsna Cherwell Cherwell District Summary Executive Summary Population - In mid-2019 there were 150,500 residents in the Cherwell district. Population Forecast - The housing-led forecasts show the population of Cherwell increasing from 149,100 in 2018 to 174,200 by 2028 (+25,100, +17%). Health Summary - Indicators that are significantly worse than average are: Admissions for injuries under 5, under 15s and in 15-24 years olds. Inequalities Summary - In Cherwell, MSOAs with the most indicators worse than Oxfordshire or England are in Banbury. Banbury Grimsbury, Neithrop and Ruscote MSOAs have no indicators significantly better than England benchmark. English Indices of Multiple Deprivation – In Cherwell, the 20% most deprived LSOAs (Lower Layer Super Output Areas) are located in parts of Banbury Cross & Neithrop, Banbury Grismbury & Hightown and Banbury Ruscote. Total Deaths - The total number of registered deaths (including COVID-19 and other causes) in the 12 months between January 2020 and December 2020 in Cherwell was 1,455, an increase of 20% compared to the same period in 2019. COVID-19 Deaths - There were approximately 140 deaths in Cherwell in 2020. Clinically Extremely Vulnerable - There were 5,011 people who have been identified as Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV) in Cherwell District. Unemployment - Unemployment in Cherwell increased during the COVID-19 pandemic and has remained high since May 2020 (3,955 claims). Cherwell Cherwell District Summary 4 Cherwell District Population Historical population change 2009 to 2019 In mid-2019 there were 150,500 residents in the Cherwell district. Females 2009 Males 2009 85+ There were 3,750 people aged 80-84 85+ in the Cherwell district. 75-79 Between 2009 and 2019 the 70-74 population increased by +7.2%, 65-69 just below the rate in Oxfordshire 60-64 (+7.8%) and England (+8%). 55-59 50-54 The population pyramid shows 45-49 females and males by 5-year age 40-44 band and compares 2009 and 35-39 2019. 30-34 There was an increase in the 25-29 older population aged 50+, a 20-24 slight decrease in the population 15-19 aged 15-29 and a more apparent 10-14 decrease in the population aged 5-9 40-44. 0-4 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Females 2019 Males 2019 Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates released June 2020 Cherwell Cherwell District Summary 5 Cherwell District Population Forecast Cherwell by broad age The housing-led forecasts show the 200,000 180,000 population of Cherwell increasing from 160,000 age 65+ 149,100 in 2018 to 174,200 by 2028 140,000 120,000 (+25,100, +17%). 100,000 age There are expected to be significant 80,000 18-64 60,000 increases in the populations of the Banbury 40,000 age 20,000 0-17 area and the Bicester area with major 0 developments south of Salt Way and at 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Bankside in Banbury and at Graven Hill and sites in south east and south west Bicester. Cherwell - settlements The population of Banbury and the 80,000 Banbury 70,000 surrounding area is expected to grow Bicester 60,000 from 62,700 to 74,100 (+18%). 50,000 The population of Bicester and the 40,000 30,000 Kidlington surrounding area is expected to grow 20,000 10,000 from 52,300 to 66,800 (+28%). Other Areas 0 Kidlington is expected to see a slight 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 decline as there is limited housing growth predicted. Source: Oxfordshire Housing-led Population Forecasts (interim) 2018-2028 Cherwell Cherwell District Summary 6 Health Summary for Cherwell District (1 of 2) The Public Health England local health profile for Cherwell shows that more than half of the indicators are similar or better than the national average. Indicators that are significantly worse than average are: Admissions for injuries under 5, under 15s and in 15-24 years olds. Other indicators that scored significantly worse were: incidence of breast cancer (SAR) and incidence of prostate cancer (SAR). Cherwell Cherwell District Summary Source: Local Health - Public Health England 7 Health Summary for Cherwell District (2 of 2) For the second section of the health summary, Cherwell District scored not significantly different or significantly better than the national average in all the indicators. Cherwell Cherwell District Summary Source: Local Health - Public Health England 8 Cherwell District health and wellbeing facts and figures 2021 PRIMARY EARLY PRE-BIRTH% 7.1% BIRTH 1,791 150,500 11% SCHOOL YEARS Mothers Babies Cherwell Children living in smoking at birth born population low income families 209 35 22 2.9% SECONDARY 320 165 SCHOOL 15-24s diagnosed Under 18s hospital Under 18 Not in education, Year 6 children Reception children with Chlamydia admissions for conceptions employment or overweight or obese overweight or obese alcohol (3 years) training WORKING 12 £335,423 £30,323 £38,347 3,810 72 AGE Apprenticeship Average Average Average Adults are Killed or seriously vacancies house price female salary male salary unemployed injured on roads 337 4,457 18,093 71.3% 2,550 59.4% 13,788 Alcohol hospital Adults with Adults Adults are Adults have chronic Adults Adults admissions coronary heart diagnosed with physically obstructive pulmonary overweight or smoke aged 40-64 disease depression active disease obese 38 1,023 20,100 11 629 2,010 4,498 7,971 Deaths from Deaths from Adults with long- Deaths from New Sexually Victims of Households in Adults with suicide (3 years) cancer (3 years) term illness or drug misuse Transmitted domestic fuel poverty diabetes disability (3 years) Infections abuse END OF OLDER LIFE 19.0% 84.0 81.2 1,257 3,168 790 PEOPLE 13,354 Died at Average Average Adults with People had a Hospital Unpaid home female life male life dementia stroke admissions due carers expectancy expectancy to falls http://insight.oxfordshire.gov.uk/cms/joint-strategic-needs-assessment Updated 2021 Cherwell Cherwell District Summary Icons designed by Freepik from Flaticon 9 Cherwell inequalities summary In Cherwell, MSOAs with the most indicators worse than Oxfordshire or England are in Banbury. Banbury Grimsbury, Neithrop and Ruscote MSOAs have no indicators significantly better than England benchmark. Four of the nineteen Cherwell MSOAs have no indicators worse than average: Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote; Deddington; Fringford & Heyfords; and Kidlington East The indicators with the most MSOAs worse than average are: Emergency hospital admissions for all causes (7), Emergency hospital admissions - ages 0-4 years (5), and Hospital admissions for injury - ages 15-24 years (5). For more information, see the JSNA Inequalities dashboard Cherwell Cherwell District Summary 10 Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019 at national level Between 2015 and 2019, Cherwell became relatively more deprived – from being 249th to 220th out of 317 local authorities, where 1 is most deprived and 317 is least deprived. The map shows that the 20% most deprived LSOAs (Lower Layer Super Output Areas) are located in parts of Banbury Cross & Neithrop, Banbury Grismbury & Hightown and Banbury Ruscote. The amount of LSOAs amongst the 20% most deprived areas in Cherwell have increased from 4 in 2015 to 6 in 2019 which means that overall Cherwell is relatively more deprived. The decile bar above shows LSOAs grouped according to how deprived Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2019 EXPLORE the data for districts and small areas they are , where 1 is most deprived Mapped by District Data Analysis service with our interactive deprivation dashboard Cherwell Cherwell District Summary and 10 is least deprived. 11 IMD Ranking within Cherwell This map shows how the LSOAs within Cherwell compare to each other. Areas that score within the 10% most deprived within Cherwell are in parts of Banbury Cross & Neithrop, Banbury Grimsby & Hightown and Banbury Ruscote. Parts of Banbury Cross & Neithrop, Banbury Ruscote, Bicester South & Ambrosden, Bicester West, Kidlington East, and Launton & Otmoore are within the 20% most deprived areas in Cherwell. The decile bar above shows LSOAs grouped according to how deprived Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2019 EXPLORE the data for districts and small areas they are , where 1 is most deprived Mapped by District Data Analysis service with our interactive deprivation dashboard Cherwell Cherwell District Summary and 10 is least deprived. 12 Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index 2019 The Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) is the proportion of children age 0-15 living in income deprived families. The most deprived areas on the IDACI in Cherwell were in parts of Banbury Ruscote and both are within 10% and 20% most deprived LSOAs in the country. The least deprived areas are located in parts of Adderbury, Bloxham and Bodicote, Cropredy, Sibfords & Wroxton, and Deddington are all within the 10% least deprived LSOAs. The decile bar above shows LSOAs grouped according to how deprived Sources: Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2019 Explorer/ EXPLORE the data for districts and small areas they are , where 1 is most deprived Joint Strategic Needs Assessment 2021 with our interactive deprivation dashboard Cherwell Cherwell District Summary and 10 is least deprived.