Asia Program Seabed Petroleum in Northeast Asia: Conflict or Cooperation? Selig S. Harrison Asia Program Seabed Petroleum in Northeast Asia: Conflict or Cooperation? Selig S. Harrison ©2005 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C. www.wilsoncenter.org WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS LEE H. HAMILTON, DIRECTOR BOARD OF TRUSTEES Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair; David A. Metzner, Vice Chair. Public Members: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; John W. Carlin, Archivist of the United States; Bruce Cole, Chair, National Endowment for the Humanities; Michael O. Leavitt, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Condoleezza Rice, Secretary, U.S. Department of State; Lawrence M. Small, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Margaret Spellings, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education. Private Citizen Members: Joseph A. Cari, Jr., Carol Cartwright, Robert B. Cook, Donald E. Garcia, Bruce S. Gelb, Charles L. Glazer, Tamala L. Longaberger WILSON COUNCIL Bruce S. Gelb, President. Elias F. Aburdene, Jennifer Acker, Charles S. Ackerman, B.B. Andersen, Russell Anmuth, Cyrus A. Ansary, Lawrence E. Bathgate II, David H. Bass, Tom Beddow, Theresa Behrendt, John Beinecke, Joseph C. Bell, Steven Alan Bennett, Stuart Bernstein, Rudy Boschwitz, A. Oakley Brooks, Donald A. Brown, Melva Bucksbaum, Richard I. Burnham, Nicola L. Caiola, Mark Chandler, Peter B. Clark, Melvin Cohen, William T. Coleman, Jr., David M. Crawford, Jr., Michael D. DiGiacomo, Sam Donaldson, Beth Dozoretz, Elizabeth Dubin, F. Samuel Eberts III, I. Steven Edelson, Mark Epstein, Melvyn J. Estrin, Susan R. Farber, A. Huda Farouki, Julie Finley, Michael Fleming, Joseph H. Flom, John H. Foster, Charles Fox, Barbara Hackman Franklin, Norman Freidkin, John H. French, II, Morton Funger, Gregory M. Gallo, Chris G. Gardiner, Bernard S. Gewirz, Alma Gildenhorn, David F. Girard-diCarlo, Michael B. Goldberg, Roy M. Goodman, Gretchen Meister Gorog, William E. Grayson, Ronald Greenberg, Raymond A. Guenter, Cheryl F. Halpern, Edward L. Hardin, Jr., John L. Howard, Osagie O. Imasogie, Darrell E. Issa, Benjamin Jacobs, Jerry Jasinowski, Brenda LaGrange Johnson, Shelly Kamins, James M. Kaufman, Edward W. Kelley, Jr., Anastasia D. Kelly, Christopher J. Kennan, Willem Kooyker, Steven Kotler, Markos Kounalakis, William H. Kremer, Daniel Lamaute, James Langdon, Raymond Learsy, Dennis A. LeVett, Francine Gordon Levinson, Harold O. Levy, Frederic V. Malek, David S. Mandel, Jeffrey A. Marcus, John Mason, Jay Mazur, Robert McCarthy, Linda McCausland, Stephen G. McConahey, Donald F. McLellan, Charles McVean, J. Kenneth Menges, Jr., Kathryn Mosbacher, Jeremiah L. Murphy, Martha T. Muse, John E. Osborn, Paul Hae Park, Gerald L. Parsky, Jeanne L. Phillips, Michael J. Polenske, Donald Robert Quartel, Jr., Bruce Rattner, Thomas R. Reedy, Larry D. Richman, Carlyn Ring, Edwin Robbins, Juan A. Sabater, Roger Sant, Timothy R. Scully, J. Michael Shepherd, George P. Shultz, Raja W. Sidawi, Kenneth Siegel, Ron Silver, William A. Slaughter, James H. Small, Shawn Smeallie, Gordon V. Smith, Thomas F. Stephenson, John Sitilides, Norman Kline Tiefel, Mark C. Treanor, Anthony G. Viscogliosi, Christine M. Warnke, Ruth Westheimer, Pete Wilson, Deborah Wince-Smith, Herbert S. Winokur, Jr., Paul Martin Wolff, Joseph Zappala, Richard S. Ziman, Nancy M. Zirkin ABOUT THE CENTER The Center is the living memorial of the United States of America to the nation’s twenty-eighth president, Woodrow Wilson. Congress established the Woodrow Wilson Center in 1968 as an international institute for advanced study, “symbolizing and strengthening the fruitful relationship between the world of learning and the world of public affairs.” The Center opened in 1970 under its own board of trustees. In all its activities the Woodrow Wilson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, supported financially by annual appropriations from Congress, and by the contributions of foundations, corporations, and individuals. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, adviso- ry groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS Contents 1 Foreword Robert M. Hathaway 3 Seabed Petroleum in Northeast Asia: Conflict or Cooperation? Selig S. Harrison 15 Conference Participants Selected Working Papers: SEABED PETROLEUM IN THE EAST CHINA SEA: GEOLOGICAL PROSPECTS, JURISDICTIONAL CONFLICTS AND PATHS TO COOPERATION April 12-13, 2004, Beijing, China 18 Choon-Ho Park Seabed Boundary Issues in the East China Sea 23 Susumu Yarita Toward Cooperation in the East China Sea 29 Zhao Li Guo Seabed Petroleum in the East China Sea: Geological Prospects and the Search for Cooperation 32 Zhiguo Gao and Jilu Wu Key Issues in the East China Sea: A Status Report and Recommended Approaches SEABED PETROLEUM IN NORTHEAST ASIA: CONFLICT OR COOPERATION? iii Selected Working Papers: SEABED PETROLEUM IN THE YELLOW SEA: GEOLOGICAL PROSPECTS, JURISDICTIONAL CONFLICTS AND PATHS TO COOPERATION April 15-16, 2004, Beijing, China 39 Keun Wook Paik North Korea and Seabed Petroleum 49 Zhang Hai Qi Oil and Gas Exploration and Development in the Yellow Sea 51 Kim Myong Gil Seabed Petroleum and the Economic Development of the D.P.R.K. 54 Kook-Sun Shin Hydrocarbon Potential of the Yellow Sea Kunsan Basin The Working Papers prepared by the participants are pre- sented in full on the website of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars: www.wilsoncenter.org/asiapubs iv WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS Foreword Robert M. Hathaway Director, Asia Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ith its energy needs steadily multiplying, Northeast Asia will require ever increasing petroleum imports for its economic W expansion and survival. Most of these imports will come from the same sources—the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia—where the United States and Western Europe obtain much of their petroleum. Yet there are enormous untapped oil and gas resources in contested areas of the East China Sea and Yellow Sea seabed that could, if exploited, reduce Northeast Asian dependence on costly imports from politically turbulent faraway sources. The Project on Oil and Gas Cooperation in Northeast Asia, sponsored by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, has focused intensively on promoting cooperation in the development of seabed petro- leum as part of a broader study under the direction of Wilson Center Senior Scholar Selig S. Harrison. The project is also exploring the role that gas pipelines from Russia to neighboring countries can play in meeting the energy needs of Northeast Asia and in advancing regional cooperation. Mr. Harrison is the author of China, Oil and Asia (Columbia University Press, 1977) and five other books on Asia. This study draws both on extensive field research in Northeast Asia and on the proceedings of two unprecedented workshops in Beijing co-spon- sored by the Wilson Center and the China Institute of International Studies, an arm of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The initial workshop (April 12-13, 2004) brought together for the first time Chinese, Japanese and independent participants to discuss “Seabed Petroleum in the East China Sea: Geological Prospects, Jurisdictional Conflicts and Paths to Cooperation.” In the second workshop (April 15-16, 2004), Chinese, South Korean, North Korean and independent participants discussed “Seabed Petroleum in the Yellow Sea: Geological Prospects, Jurisdictional Conflicts and Paths to Cooperation.” The roster of distinguished participants is listed on page 15. To encourage frank discussion, it was agreed that Mr. Harrison, who moderated the proceedings, would name no names in his report on the SEABED PETROLEUM IN NORTHEAST ASIA: CONFLICT OR COOPERATION? 1 workshops. As the following account shows, there were contentious exchanges among the participants, and no progress toward agreement on the intractable Law of the Sea disputes that underlie the tensions over seabed petroleum in Northeast Asia. At the same time, his report demon- strates that the workshops reached a significant consensus on how to avoid conflict over petroleum resources and how to move toward cooperative development. His recommendations merit the attention of both govern- ments and public opinion in the countries concerned. The Wilson Center wishes to express its thanks to the U.S. Department of Energy for its support of the Project on Oil and Gas Cooperation in Northeast Asia. Selected working papers most relevant to Mr. Harrison’s conclusions are presented in this report. All 12 of the working papers prepared for the workshops, edited by Mr. Harrison, may be consulted in their entirety on the Wilson Center website at www.wilsoncenter.org/asiapubs. 2 WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS Seabed Petroleum in Northeast Asia: Conflict or Cooperation? Selig S. Harrison Director, Project on Oil and Gas Cooperation in Northeast Asia, and Senior Scholar Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars QUIET STRUGGLE IN THE EAST CHINA SEA Is the vast expanse of the East China Sea between China and Japan “another Persian Gulf,” a treasure trove of untapped seabed oil and gas reserves, as a United Nations survey mission reported in 1968?1 Until ten years ago, China and Japan did little to find out. A complex legal dispute over their seabed jurisdictional rights