FEBRUARY 2009 2040 Demand Study Water Supply Management Program 2040 Prepared by: East Bay Municipal Utility District Oakland, California, Karen E. Johnson, Water Resources Planning and EDAW | AECOM In association with CBRE Consulting, Inc. and Weber Analytical East Bay Municipal Utility District Water Supply Management Program 2040 2040 Demand Study Prepared by: East Bay Municipal Utility District Oakland, California, Karen E. Johnson, Water Resources Planning, and EDAW | AECOM In association with CBRE Consulting, Inc. and Weber Analytical February 2009 Printed on 50% post-consumer recycled paper. Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1-1 Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 1-1 Previous Studies ............................................................................................................ 1-1 Planning Periods ............................................................................................................ 1-2 Study Area and Boundaries ........................................................................................... 1-2 Organization of the Report ............................................................................................. 1-4 Chapter 2: Projection Methodology ......................................................................................... 2-1 Basis of Planning ........................................................................................................... 2-1 Overview of Projection Methodology .............................................................................. 2-1 Land Uses ...................................................................................................................... 2-2 Land Use Unit Demands ................................................................................................ 2-3 Example Application ....................................................................................................... 2-4 Demand Tool .................................................................................................................. 2-5 Chapter 3: Land Uses and Trends .......................................................................................... 3-1 Land Use Categories...................................................................................................... 3-1 Existing Land Uses ........................................................................................................ 3-3 Future Land Uses ........................................................................................................... 3-7 Meetings with Land Use Planning Agencies ................................................................ 3-13 Summary of Land Use Activities and Trends ............................................................... 3-15 Chapter 4: Base Year Water Demands ................................................................................... 4-1 Base Year Demands and Introduction to Adjustments ................................................... 4-1 Summary of Base Year Demands .................................................................................. 4-8 Chapter 5: Future Adjustment Factors ..................................................................................... 5-1 Land Use Unit Demands ................................................................................................ 5-1 Existing Residential Development .................................................................................. 5-3 Existing Non-Residential Development .......................................................................... 5-8 Results for Existing Development ................................................................................ 5-10 New Residential and Non-Residential Development .................................................... 5-11 Results for New Development ...................................................................................... 5-13 Special Land Uses ....................................................................................................... 5-15 Conservation and Non-Potable Water .......................................................................... 5-17 Application of Future Adjustment Factors .................................................................... 5-17 Chapter 6: Water Demand Projections ................................................................................... 6 -1 Demand Projections to 2040 .......................................................................................... 6-1 Demand Projections by Region ...................................................................................... 6-3 Future Demand Study Updates ...................................................................................... 6-6 i 2040 Demand Study Tables Table 1.1 Communities within Each Demand Model Region ................................................ 1-4 Table 3.1 Land Use Categories ............................................................................................. 3-2 Table 3.2 Base Year Land Use Acreage by Region .............................................................. 3-4 Table 3.3 2040 Land Use Acreage by Region ..................................................................... 3-11 Table 3.4 Comparative Land Use Changes ........................................................................ 3-12 Table 3.5 Planning Agencies ............................................................................................... 3-14 Table 4.1 Adjustment Factors for Normalization ................................................................... 4-5 Table 4.2 Base Year Non-potable Water Projects ................................................................. 4-8 Table 4.3 Base Year District-wide System Input ................................................................... 4-8 Table 4.4 Base Year System Input (Adjusted) by Land Use and Region ............................ 4-11 Table 5.1 Adjustment Factor Data Sources ........................................................................... 5-2 Table 5.2 Infill Potential Data ................................................................................................ 5-5 Table 5.3 Historical Comparison Data ................................................................................... 5-7 Table 5.4 High Density Housing Occupancy Data and Factors ............................................ 5-8 Table 5.5 Jobs per Acre Data and Factors .......................................................................... 5-10 Table 5.6 Sample Consumption Data ................................................................................. 5-14 Table 6.1 2040 District-wide Demand Projections ................................................................ 6-2 Table 6.2 Water Demand by Regions ................................................................................... 6-4 Figures Figure 1.1 Study Area ............................................................................................................. 1-3 Figure 1.2 Demand Model Regions ........................................................................................ 1-5 Figure 2.1 Overview of Water Demand Projection Methodology ............................................ 2-2 Figure 3.1 Example of Existing Land Use Polygons ............................................................... 3-3 Figure 3.2 Existing Land Uses: 2005 ...................................................................................... 3-5 Figure 3.3 Changes in Land Uses: 2010 – 2040 ..................................................................... 3-9 Figure 4.1 Historical Metered Consumption ........................................................................... 4-2 Figure 4.2 Examples of Seasonality ....................................................................................... 4-4 Figure 4.3 Normalization of Data ............................................................................................ 4-5 Figure 4.4 Example of Land Use Polygons and Meter Locations ........................................... 4-9 Figure 4.5 Calculation and Distribution of Base Year Demands ........................................... 4-12 Figure 5.1 Example of Infill Potential ...................................................................................... 5-4 Figure 5.2 Comparison of ER2 in Region F .......................................................................... 5-13 Figure 6.1 Actual System Input with Demand Projections ...................................................... 6-2 Figure 6.2 Demand Projections: East and West of Hills ......................................................... 6-3 Figure 6.3 Demand Projections for Regions AS (Berkeley Hills), B (Oakland Hills), and C (Castro Valley) ....................................................................................................... 6-5 Figure 6.4 Demand Projections for Regions AN (Pinole), GC (Oakland), GN (Richmond), GS (San Leandro), and F (Danville) ............................................................................ 6-5 Figure 6.5 Demand Projections for Regions D (Orinda), E (Eastern Lafayette), and H (Walnut Creek) ...................................................................................................................