Fast Track Scotland Making the Case for High Speed Rail Connections with Scotland Fast Track Scotland Making the Case for High Speed Rail Connections with Scotland Ministerial Foreword The argument for a high speed rail network in the UK is strong, but is stronger when Scotland is included. That is the clear message from this report, published by Scotland’s Partnership Group for high speed rail. Scotland stands together in its support for high speed rail. The Partnership Group brings together colleagues representing the broadest spectrum of Scotland’s interests. It speaks for communities and business across Scotland’s diverse geographical and economic landscape. We see the benefit of high speed rail to Scotland. It will stimulate our industry sectors and improve Scotland’s attractiveness to inward investment. And, we are convinced of the benefit of Scotland’s inclusion to the rest of the UK. Better connections with Scotland’s strong economic sectors will benefit cities across the UK. High speed rail will substantially reduce the need for domestic aviation between Glasgow, Edinburgh and London; the potential for environmental benefits is huge. I established the Scottish Partnership Group to develop and promote Scotland’s case for inclusion in a UK-wide, strategic high speed rail network. It has done so in a spirit of close co-operation and with a clarity of purpose, and it has set challenges for both the UK and Scottish Governments. I thank all of those involved. I endorse this report, and I am pleased to present it on behalf of the group. Keith Brown MSP Minister for Housing and Transport iii Executive Summary y Scotland stands united in support of high speed rail. It is vital that a high speed rail network be established across the UK to secure its future competitiveness and economic prosperity. y The investment case for high speed rail is strong, but is stronger when Scotland is included. y Scotland supports a high speed rail strategy which brings Edinburgh and Glasgow closer to London and the UK’s great cities, and which preserves and enhances aviation links with London’s airports for the north of Scotland. y A new high speed line must be built to Scotland to realise the fullest economic and environmental benefits for the UK. This report sets out Scotland’s case for high speed rail. It has been prepared by the Scottish Partnership Group for High Speed Rail, formed by Keith Brown MSP, Scotland’s Minister for Housing and Transport, in June 2011. The group has been established to develop and promote Scotland’s case for inclusion in a UK-wide, strategic high speed rail network, and comprises partners from across Scotland’s Business, Civic and Transport Communities. It speaks with one voice in its support for Scotland’s inclusion in a full British high speed rail network. The Scottish Partnership Group brings together the following organisations: y CBI Scotland y City of Edinburgh Council y Glasgow City Council y Glasgow Edinburgh Collaboration Initiative y Nestrans y Network Rail y Scottish Chambers of Commerce y Scottish Council for Development and Industry y Scottish Enterprise y Scottish Futures Trust y Scottish Trades Union Congress y SESTran y Strathclyde Partnership for Transport y Transform Scotland y Transport Scotland The group’s principal conclusion is that the investment case for high speed rail is strong, but is stronger when Scotland is included. This report demonstrates the clear benefits which Scotland’s inclusion in a full UK high speed rail network could bring for the whole of Scotland. It also demonstrates the benefits to the rest of the UK when Glasgow and Edinburgh are directly connected to the network, and that Scotland’s inclusion improves the overall business case for high speed rail in the UK. v A high speed rail link to Scotland provides significant economic and environmental benefits to Scotland and the rest of the UK. It will: y Increase rail capacity to comfortably accommodate future demand y Significantly educer journey times between Scotland and the UK’s major cities y Encourage modal shift from air and road to rail y Support and benefit businesses throughout Scotland and, in particular, enable Glasgow and Edinburgh to remain competitive in attracting inward investment. However, it is not only the scale of the benefits but the timing of when they are delivered that is important. It is essential that Scotland is included in the construction programme north of Birmingham. Therefore, it is the position of the Scottish Partnership Group that planning for high speed rail in the UK does not go far enough; planning must continue beyond Manchester and Leeds. The remit of HS2 Ltd1 must be extended to include detailed planning for high speed rail to Scotland. This report recognises that demand for long-distance rail travel continues to grow, and that without additional capacity the UK rail network will be severely constrained. With appropriate integration with the existing network, high speed rail will deliver better rail connections for all of the country. A high speed line to Scotland is required. Only a new line will deliver the benefits that Scotland needs, and deliver journeys fast enough to ensure that rail replaces aviation’s dominance of the Scotland-London travel market. Although there are carbon impacts in the construction of any new line, the inclusion of Scotland in the UK’s high speed rail network is essential for realising significant reductions in UK carbon emissions and is vitally important in achieving major levels of modal shift from air to high speed rail. Only rail journeys significantly below 3 hours will achieve this objective. It is unclear that the proposed operation of ‘hybrid’ or ‘classic-compatible’ trains running to Scotland on existing lines will deliver journey time improvements for Anglo-Scottish services. Similarly, it is vital that a new line releases additional rail capacity for both freight and regional passenger services. Routes to Scotland are significantly constrained; running ‘hybrid’ trains will not improve that position. Inclusion in a UK high speed rail network will allow Scotland greater economic equity with other areas of the UK. If Scotland is not included Glasgow and Edinburgh will be comparatively further away, in terms of journey times, from London than their main competitors who are served by high speed lines. It is imperative that high speed rail is developed in the UK. It is also imperative that Scotland is included if the UK is to see the full benefits of its contribution to the economy. 1 High Speed Two Limited (HS2 Ltd) is the company set up by the Government to consider the case for a new high speed rail network in the UK. It is charged with developing recommended routes between London and the West Midlands, and onwards to Manchester and Leeds. vi Table of Contents Ministerial Foreword ii Executive Summary iv 1 High Speed Rail 01 1.1 High speed rail is needed in the UK 01 1.2 The benefits of a UK high speed ailr network which includes Scotland 02 1.3 Learning from others 05 1.4 The status of the network planned for the UK 05 1.5 The implications for Scotland’s connectivity 10 1.5.1 HS2 Ltd proposals for Scotland’s connectivity in 2026 11 1.5.2 HS2 Ltd proposals for Scotland’s connectivity in 2033 11 2 Strategic and Economic Context 13 2.1 EU Policy Context 13 2.2 UK Policy Context 13 2.3 Scotland’s Strategic Vision 14 2.3.1 National Planning Framework 2 15 2.4 Economic Context 16 2.4.1 Wider Edinburgh economy 18 2.4.2 Wider Glasgow economy 20 2.4.3 Wider Scotland 21 3 The vision for high speed rail in Scotland 23 3.1 Channel Tunnel Rail Link 23 3.2 Integration with the Scottish Rail Network 25 4 Assessment of Benefits 27 4.1 Economic 27 4.1.1 Economic welfare benefits 27 4.1.2 Wider economic benefits 30 4.1.3 Inward investment 34 4.1.4 Key growth sectors 36 4.1.5 Benefit to the UK economy 44 4.1.6 Passenger demand and revenue 46 viii 4.2 Benefits to Passengers and Rail Operators 49 4.2.1 All of Scotland will benefit 49 4.2.2 Capacity 54 4.2.3 How would additional capacity benefit Scotland? 54 4.2.4 Punctuality and reliability 57 4.3 Environment 57 4.3.1 Overall emissions associated with cross-border travel 59 4.3.2 Embodied carbon 63 5 Assessment of Costs and Challenges 65 5.1 Capital Costs 65 5.2 Operating Costs 66 5.3 Challenges to Analysis 67 5.4 Risks 67 6 Value for Money 69 7 References 73 List of Figures Figure 1 High Speed Rail network at 2032 07 Figure 2 Rail/Air Market Share 59 List of Tables Table 1 Indicative future journey times 10 Table 2 Overview of the Scottish economy by region 17 Table 3 Responses from businesses in Scotland to a survey of opinions on high speed rail 31 Table 4 Incremental increase in demand in 2055 of extending from Manchester to Scotland 48 Table 5 Change in Rail Market Share across key European Routes 62 Table 6 Embodied Carbon Emissions for Current Proposed Route and the Extension to Scotland 63 Table 7 Quantified ostsC and Benefits (£ millions) of Manchester to Scotland (2002 PV/prices) and resulting BCR over 60 year appraisal period 69 Table 8 Sensitivity Analysis – Quantified Costs and Benefits (£ millions) of Manchester to Scotland (2002 PV/Prices) And Resulting BCR over 60 year appraisal period 70 ix 1.