GEORGE MASSEY TUNNEL REPLACEMENT PROJECT LAND USE STUDY June 2016 Prepared for: B.C. Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Prepared by: Site Economics Ltd. 701 West Georgia Street – Suite 1500 Vancouver, BC V7Y 1C6 604.250.2992 [email protected] Project 16-17 GEORGE MASSEY TUNNEL REPLACEMENT PROJECT - LAND USE STUDY TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................... 2 2 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Project Context .............................................................................................................................................. 4 2.2 Potential Influences on Land Use and Development ..................................................................................... 5 3 LAND USE CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Land Use Restrictions ..................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.1 The Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) ...................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Metro Vancouver Regional Growth Strategy ......................................................................................... 6 3.1.3 Municipal Official Community Plans ...................................................................................................... 7 3.1.4 Port of Vancouver Land Use Plan ........................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Industrial Land Base ....................................................................................................................................... 8 3.3 Residential Land Base .................................................................................................................................... 9 4 TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE IN METRO VANCOUVER ............................................................................... 10 4.1 Land Use and Transportation Theory ........................................................................................................... 10 4.2 Application to Metro Vancouver ................................................................................................................. 10 4.3 Land Use Restrictions: Looking Forward ...................................................................................................... 11 5 COMPARABLE TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS ....................................................................................................... 12 5.1 Alex Fraser Bridge ........................................................................................................................................ 13 5.2 Golden Ears Bridge ....................................................................................................................................... 16 5.3 Gateway Program ........................................................................................................................................ 20 5.3.1 South Fraser Perimeter Road ............................................................................................................... 20 5.3.2 Port Mann Bridge Highway 1 Project ................................................................................................... 22 5.4 Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 23 6 TransLink Land Use Study .................................................................................................................................... 25 7 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................................................................... 26 8. REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................................... 28 APPENDIX A - TRANSIT AND REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH ...................................................................... 30 APPENDIX B - PORT OF VANCOUVER OVERVIEW AND IMPACTS ............................................................................... 33 APPENDIX C - ASSUMPTIONS & LIMITING CONDITIONS ............................................................................................ 37 APPENDIX D - PROFESSIONAL RESUME ...................................................................................................................... 38 SITE ECONOMICS LTD PAGE 1 GEORGE MASSEY TUNNEL REPLACEMENT PROJECT - LAND USE STUDY 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report was commissioned to review and summarize historic reports regarding the influence of major transportation projects on land use in Metro Vancouver, to support the land use effects assessment for the George Massey Tunnel Replacement Project (the Project). The report reviews land use planning theory, provides an overview of existing land use plans in Metro Vancouver, examines the influence of a number of comparable transportation infrastructure projects on local and regional land use, and concludes the following: Potential Effects of the George Massey Tunnel Replacement • The George Massey Tunnel Replacement Project is a key component of the regional, provincial and national transportation system. By reducing congestion the Project supports long-term economic growth that otherwise would accrue outside of the Metro Vancouver region. • The influence of the Project on land use will be very moderate, primarily due to the lack of vacant developable land on both sides of the crossing, and the presence of strong and restrictive land use controls across the region. • Because the Project does not change Metro Vancouver’s urban containment boundary, it can be reasonably anticipated that long-term development will focus on intensification of existing urban areas rather than expansion onto new land areas or 'sprawl'. • The only measurable influence of the Project is to add value and density to lands already designated for current and future development. There is no potential for the improved river crossing to change this or lead to the conversion of non-development land into development land. • The potential for municipal governments to expand land areas for urban development is a separate local policy decision, beyond the scope of this Project. Additionally, given the strength of existing land use policies such as the Agricultural Land Reserve, Metro Vancouver’s regional growth strategy and the Official Community Plans of Vancouver, Richmond, Delta, Surrey and White Rock, any significant changes in this regard are considered unlikely. Land Use and Transportation Projects • Transportation infrastructure investments support efficient land development and accommodate growth in the population and economy. • Improved highway access and highway connections encourage denser, land intensive, high quality forms of development. • Comparable examples of improved transportation access in established areas within the region include the Alex Fraser Bridge in 1986 (Richmond to Delta/Surrey), Pitt River Bridge in 2009 (Port Coquitlam to Pitt Meadows), Port Mann Bridge in 2012 (Surrey to Coquitlam), and Golden Ears Bridge in 2009 (Langley / Surrey to Pitt Meadows / Maple Ridge). These transportation projects resulted in: o No substantial influence on land use patterns. o No substantial changes to Official Community Plans (OCPs) or the boundaries of the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR). o Increased rate of absorption of vacant lands already designated for development, and slightly increased the value of existing developments. SITE ECONOMICS LTD PAGE 2 GEORGE MASSEY TUNNEL REPLACEMENT PROJECT - LAND USE STUDY • Numerous other examples illustrate that in order for a major transportation improvement to have a substantial impact on land use, vacant development lands must be present and available. • Transportation infrastructure has a major impact on the value of vacant development land, but only a marginal value impact on fully developed properties with measurable impacts including minor increases in land value, and the ability for developers to increase site density, generating increased economic value. Metro Vancouver Land Use Context • For decades, the supply of land for urban development in the lower mainland has been restricted through various plans developed by multiple jurisdictions, including Metro Vancouver’s Regional Growth Strategy (RGS) and the provincial Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR). • The combination of the Urban Containment Boundary outlined in the RGS and the ALR have effectively stopped the conversion of non-development lands to development lands. This is particularly the case in Richmond and Delta. • These plans have ensured that all new development occurs on vacant and under-developed lands located in urban areas that already have some form of development designation. • Historic population and employment growth have increased the area of developed land to the point that almost no vacant developable land remains available. With limited designated land on which