WWW.IPPR.ORG DevisinganElectoral Systemforthe21st Century: ThecaseforAMS DrPhilMcCarvill May2010 ©ippr2010 InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch Challengingideas– Changingpolicy 2 ippr|DevisinganElectoralSystemforthe21stCentury:ThecaseforAMS Aboutippr TheInstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr)istheUK’sleadingprogressivethinktank, producingcutting-edgeresearchandinnovativepolicyideasforajust,democraticand sustainableworld. Since1988,wehavebeenattheforefrontofprogressivedebateandpolicymakinginthe UK.Throughourindependentresearchandanalysiswedefinenewagendasforchangeand providepracticalsolutionstochallengesacrossthefullrangeofpublicpolicyissues. WithofficesinbothLondonandNewcastle,weensureouroutlookisasbroad-basedas possible,whileourGlobalChangeprogrammeextendsourpartnershipsandinfluence beyondtheUK,givingusatrulyworld-classreputationforhighqualityresearch. ippr,30-32SouthamptonStreet,LondonWC2E7RA.Tel:+44(0)2074706100E:[email protected] www.ippr.org.RegisteredCharityNo.800065 ThispaperwasfirstpublishedinMay2010.©ippr2010 3 ippr|DevisinganElectoralSystemforthe21stCentury:ThecaseforAMS Introduction The2010generalelectionresulthasputelectoralreformcentrestageanddealtapotentially terminalblowtotheFirstPastthePost(FPTP)system.Thisisnotsimplyduetoa perpetuationofage-olddistortionswhichinvariablyrewardLabourandtheConservatives andpenalisetheLiberalDemocrats:itisalsobecauseFPTPhasnotdeliveredadecisive electionresult.TheFPTPhasultimatelybeenundonebyoneofitsownproudestboasts.A hungparliamenthasforcedthethreemainpartiesintoprotractednegotiations–resultingin aConservative/LiberalDemocratcoalitionandthepromiseofareferendumonthe AlternativeVote(AV)system. Generallyindiscussionsaboutchangestothevotingsystemithasbeenassumedthechoice isbetweenthreeoptions:AV,AlternativeVotePlus(AV+)ortheSingleTransferableVote (STV).However,thispaperarguesthatitistheAdditionalMemberSystem(AMS)whichis mostsuitedtotheUKcontext.AMScombinesthebestelementsofthecurrentsystemwith arightfulfocusonproportionality,representationandfairness. AMSisalreadyusedtoelecttheScottishParliament,theWelshAssemblyandtheGreater LondonAssemblyandhasbeenshowntoworkintheUKcontext.Internationally,in countrieslikeGermanyandNewZealand,ithasdemonstratedthecapacitytodeliverboth resultswhichreflecttheelectorate’svotingintentionandstablegovernance. MostimportantlyintheUKcontext,AMSisaproportionalsystemwhichretainsthe constituencylink–animportant,evencherished,partofourpoliticaltradition.AMS thereforeensuresbothcontinuityandanopportunitytoembraceasystemwhichmore closelyreflectstheregionalandnationalpatternsofelectoralsupport. InarguingthecaseforAMSwetakeourleadfromanumberofdistinguishedacademicsand experts,andinparticularfromLordAlexanderofWeedon,thesoledissentingvoiceonthe JenkinsCommissionwhoarguedthatAMSrepresentedthemostappropriateelectoral systemfortheUK(JenkinsCommission1998). Structureofthepaper ThepaperbeginswithanassessmentofthefailingsofthecurrentFPTPsystemandthecore argumentsforgenuineelectoralreform.Itthenestablishesanumberofcriteriawhichany newelectoralsystemmustsatisfy.Thereisthenananalysisofthevariousalternative electoralsystems.HavingconcludedthatAMSrepresentsthemostappropriateelectoral systemfortheUK,thereportexplainswhyAMSwouldbegoodforUKpoliticallifeina widersense. 4 ippr|DevisinganElectoralSystemforthe21stCentury:ThecaseforAMS TheFirstPastthePostsystem TheelectionresulthasdeliveredyetfurtherevidenceoftheinadequacyoftheFirstPastthe Postsystem.AsTable1demonstrates,therecontinuetobehugedisparitiesbetweenthe numberofvotespolledandtheproportionofparliamentaryseatssecured. Table1:GeneralElection2010:voteshareandseatnumbers Party Shareofvote Numberofseats Conservative 36.1% 306 Labour 29% 258 LiberalDemocrat 23% 57 Other 11.9% 28 Source:BBCWebsite-http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/ PerhapsmosttellingforFPTP,theshareofthevoteforthetwomajorpartiescontinuesto fall(DunleavyandMargetts2005).In2010,thecombinedConservativeandLabourvote wasjust65.1percent,downfrom67.6percentin2005.Bycomparison,thecombined shareofthevoteinthe1950GeneralElectionwas89.5percent(BBCwebsite,1997).Over thelast60years,thedominanceofthetwomainpartieshaswanedsignificantly,butwestill haveanelectoralsystemwhichreflectsabygoneera. OneofthemaindistortingfeaturesofFPTPisthatitleadstoadisproportionatefocusona smallanddecliningnumberofmarginalseats.Hugesumsofmoneyandresourcesare pouredintothefewconstituenciesthatmaydictatethefinaloutcome.Earlycalculations fromthiselectionsuggestthat89seatsweredecidedbylessthan5percentofthevoteand 40ofthosebylessthan1000votes.Theothersideofthisequationisthatthevotesof millionsofpeoplearecastinconstituencieswherethereislittleornochanceofremoving theincumbent,therebylockingalargepercentageoftheelectorateoutofanysensethat theyhavethepowertochoosethenextgovernment. Noneofthisisinanywayrevelatory;analystssuchasDunleavyandMargettshavelong notedthattheUK’selectoralsystemhasbeencreakingforsometime.Byalmostany measure,theUKhasbeenexperiencinganacutedemocraticdeficitforanumberofdecades. In2005,theproportionofvoterswhoseintentionswereeffectivelyignoredbythevoting systemstoodat31percentandtherewereregionsoftheUKinwhichmeasuresof deviationfromproportionalityreached86percent(DunleavyandMargetts2005).Dunleavy andMargettshavecalculatedthatin2005,41percentofMPshadnorighttoholdtheir seatsonthebasisoftheirparty’sshareofthevote(ibid). DuringtimesinwhichFPTPregularlydelivereddecisivemajoritygovernment,itwasperhaps forgivabletooverlooktheinherentinequalitiesofthatsystem.Nowtherecanbenosuch justification.FPTPhasdeliveredahungparliamentthathasledtoprotractednegotiationsto formapowersharinggovernmentwithelectoralreformcentraltothosenegotiations.The issuecannotbeshelvedagain,evenifthenewgovernmentprovestobeastableone.So whatformofvotingsystemisbestfortheUK? 5 ippr|DevisinganElectoralSystemforthe21stCentury:ThecaseforAMS Electoralreform–theessentialcriteria Inordertoensurethatweemergewithelectoralreformthatdeliversanequitable, representativeandproportionalsystemthatproducesstablegovernments,wesuggestthat reformmustsatisfyanumberofclearcriteria. Firstly,itmustmaintaintheconstituencylink viawhichMembersofParliamenthavean attachmenttoalocalityandareperceivedtorepresentandservetheinterestsoftheir constituents.TheconstituencylinksitsattheheartofrepresentativedemocracyintheUK:it ensuresadirectlineofaccountabilitybetweenvotersandtheirMP,andgroundsMPsina geographicalrealityoutsidetheWestminsterbubble.ThisisnottosuggestthatallMPsmust betiedtoconstituenciesorthatthecurrentnumberofconstituenciesmustremainfixed. Thesewillbemattersfordiscussion. ThereisaproudtraditionofconstituencyMPsrepresentingallconstituentsandnotsimply thosewhovotedforthem,aprincipleworthpreserving.Earlyanalysisofconstituencyresults fromthe2010generalelectionhasrevealedanumberofexamplesofsittingMPsdefying strongnationalandregionalswings,oftenwithincreasedmajorities.Inanumberof instancesthemostobviousexplanationisthepresenceofapopularsittingMPwhohas workedhardtobuildsupportlocally. Secondly,thesystemmustestablishaclearerrelationshipbetweenthenumberof votescastforaparticularpartyandthenumberofseatsitsecures.Thiswillhelp ensurethatprinciplesofrepresentationandproportionareembeddedinareformedelectoral system. Areformedsystemmustavoidreplicatingorreinforcingthedistortionofthecurrentsystem orsimplyfavouringthelargestparties. Thirdly,weneedasystemwhichensuresthatallvoteshaveavalue andthatthereal electoralbattleisnotconfinedtoasmallnumberofmarginalconstituencies. Finally,theelectoralsystemmustbesufficientlysophisticatedtoprovidefor stablebutnot glacialgovernment.Althoughanyproportionalsystemislikelytoproducecoalition government,itmustallowvoterstobringaboutperiodicshiftsinpowerwhicharedecisive andreflectthechangingnationalmood. Thechoice Afteryearsinthedoldrums,electoralreformemergedasarealisticprospectintheaftermath oftheexpensesscandalin2009.Suchwasthescaleofthepoliticalcrisisthatallareasof reformwerebeingseriouslydiscussed.Then,justpriortotheelectioncampaign,Gordon BrownannouncedinaspeechtoipprthatifLabourwasre-electeditwouldholda referendumontheAlternativeVote(Brown2010).Whilecondemnedinsomequartersasa ‘deathbedconversion’whichwasonlymadetowooLiberalDemocratsupporterstothe flaggingLabourcause,itwasamajorchangeinLabourpolicy.Theprospectofelectoral reformthenhadanotherboostwhenNickClegg’sstrongshowingsintheearlyTVdebates ledtoasurgeinLiberalDemocratpollratings.Thoseratingswerenottranslatedintohard votesattheballotbox,buttheactualresultmeanttheLiberalDemocratswerecentralto post-electionnegotiations. Wehaveofcoursebeenherebefore,mostrecentlyin1997,whenthefirstBlairgovernment establishedtheJenkinsCommissiontoexaminetheoptionsforelectoralreform.Reportinga yearlater,theCommission’sauthoritativereportclearlystatedthecaseforelectoralreform andrecommendedAlternativeVotePlus(AV+)asitspreferredvotingsystem.AV+combines thealternativevotesystemfortheelectionofconstituencymembersandatop-upof 6 ippr|DevisinganElectoralSystemforthe21stCentury:ThecaseforAMS additionalseats,allocatedtopartiesaccordingtotheirshareofthevote–thelatterelement beingachievedthroughtheuseofanopenorclosedpartylist.InsettinguptheCommission theBlairgovernmentwasdeliveringonamanifestocommitmenttolookatelectoralreform. Buthavingwonahugelandslidevictoryundertheoldsystemitisperhapsnotsurprising thattheGovernmentconsignedtheJenkinsReporttothepoliticalshelf,largelydueto internaloppositionatseniorlevelswithintheLabourParty. ipprwasamongthosevoiceswhichconsistentlylamentedthismissedopportunityand continuedtoargueforaproportionalsystem.TwelveyearsonfromJenkins,wearguethatis vitalthatanotherchanceisnotallowedtoslipaway.