REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN TRANSPORT IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2005 United Nations E S C A P ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ESCAP is the regional development arm of the United Nations and serves as the main economic and social development centre for the United Nations in Asia and the Pacific. Its mandate is to foster cooperation between its 53 members and 9 associate members. ESCAP provides the strategic link between global and country-level programmes and issues. It supports Governments of the region in consolidating regional positions and advocates regional approaches to meeting the region’s unique socio-economic challenges in a globalizing world. The ESCAP office is located in Bangkok, Thailand. Please visit our website at www.unescap.org for further information. The shaded areas of the map represent ESCAP members and associate members. REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN TRANSPORT IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2005 United Nations New York, 2005 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN TRANSPORT IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2005 United Nations publication Sales No. E.06.II.F.9 Copyright United Nations 2005 All rights reserved Manufactured in Thailand ISBN: 92-1-120461-5 ST/ESCAP/2392 ESCAP WORKS TOWARDS REDUCING POVERTY AND MANAGING GLOBALIZATION Acknowledgements: This document was prepared by the Transport and Tourism Division (TTD), ESCAP, led by the Transport Policy and Tourism Section. Assistance and consultancy inputs were provided by Meyrick and Associates Pty., Limited (www.meyrick.com.au). The Chapter on Air Transport was graciously provided by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Bangkok, Thailand. Most of the data shown in the tables containing selected infrastructure projects (tables VI.2, VII.3, VIII.3, X.2 and XIII.2) were provided by Thomson Project Finance International and Thomson SDC Platinum. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. The term “ESCAP region” is used in the present document to include Afghanistan; American Samoa; Armenia; Australia; Azerbaijan; Bangladesh; Bhutan; Brunei Darussalam; Cambodia; China; Cook Islands; Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Fiji; French Polynesia; Georgia; Guam; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Islamic Republic of Iran; Japan; Kazakhstan; Kiribati; Kyrgyzstan; Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Macao, China; Malaysia; Maldives; Marshall Islands; Federated States of Micronesia; Mongolia; Myanmar; Nauru; Nepal; New Caledonia; New Zealand; Niue; Northern Mariana Islands; Pakistan; Palau; Papua New Guinea; the Philippines; Republic of Korea; Russian Federation; Samoa; Singapore; Solomon Islands; Sri Lanka; Tajikistan; Thailand; Timor-Leste; Tonga; Turkey; Turkmenistan; Tuvalu; Uzbekistan; Vanuatu and Viet Nam. The term “developing ESCAP region” excludes Australia, Japan and New Zealand. The term “Central Asia” in this publication refers to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. On 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became Hong Kong, China. Mention of “Hong Kong” in the text refers to a date prior to 1 July 1997. On 20 December 1999, Macau became Macao, China. Mention of “Macau” in the text refers to a date prior to 20 December 1999. The term “billion” signifies a thousand million. Unless otherwise stated, current United States dollars have been used throughout. This publication has been issued without formal editing. Contents iii CONTENTS Page ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................ ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 1 PART ONE: THE CHALLENGE FOR TRANSPORT ............................................................ 13 I. MEETING THE NEEDS OF TRADE ........................................................................... 15 A. Economic growth in the world ..................................................................................... 15 B. Economic growth in the ESCAP region ....................................................................... 17 C. Intraregional and interregional trends in merchandise trade ........................................ 18 II. MEETING THE NEED FOR PERSONAL MOBILITY ............................................ 25 A. World and regional population growth and distribution............................................... 25 B. Trends in urbanization .................................................................................................. 27 C. Demographic change .................................................................................................... 30 III. MEETING THE NEEDS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ................................................ 33 A. Greenhouse gas emissions due to transport .................................................................. 33 B. Local air pollution due to transport .............................................................................. 34 C. Initiatives to reduce air pollution and GHG emissions from transport ........................ 36 IV. MEETING THE NEEDS OF THE POOR ................................................................... 41 A. Transport and poverty reduction................................................................................... 41 B. Rural poverty and transport .......................................................................................... 42 C. Urban poverty and transport ......................................................................................... 43 D. Infrastructure and “inclusive development” ................................................................. 44 PART TWO: DEVELOPMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................... 45 V. CHANGING DELIVERY MECHANISMS.................................................................... 47 A. Private sector financing of transport infrastructure ...................................................... 47 B. Developing institutions to facilitate private sector investment .................................... 55 VI. ROADS AND ROAD TRANSPORT .............................................................................. 63 A. Introduction ..................................................................................................................63 B. Asian Highway project ................................................................................................. 63 C. Growth and development of the region’s road infrastructure....................................... 66 D. Growth in road vehicle fleets and motorization trends in the region ........................... 67 E. Selected road and highway investment projects........................................................... 70 VII. RAILWAY TRANSPORT .................................................................................................. 75 A. Railway traffic trends ................................................................................................... 75 B. Rail systems growth ..................................................................................................... 78 C. Network development .................................................................................................. 84 VIII. SHIPPING ........................................................................................................................... 89 A. Registered fleet capacities ............................................................................................ 89 B. Vessels by country of domicile..................................................................................... 91 iv Review of Developments in Transport in Asia and the Pacific 2005 CONTENTS (continued) Page C. Shipbuilding ................................................................................................................. 91 D. Trends in container slot capacity and ship size ............................................................ 92 E. Trends in bulk shipping fleet capacities ....................................................................... 94 F. Trends in the average age of merchant fleets ............................................................... 94 G. Productivity trends in the world merchant shipping fleet ............................................ 95 H. Supply-side developments in world container shipping............................................... 96 IX. PORTS ................................................................................................................................. 99 A. Trends in container port throughput ............................................................................. 99 B. Selected port infrastructure projects ............................................................................. 102 X. AIR TRANSPORT ............................................................................................................. 109 A. Air traffic growth trends and forecasts ........................................................................