M107 FINAL REPORT ALTAMONT PASS WIND RESOURCE AREA BIRD FATALITY STUDY, MONITORING YEARS 2005–2013 P REPARED FOR : Alameda County Community Development Agency 224 W. Winton Avenue, Room 110 Hayward, CA 94544 Contact: Sandra Rivera 510.670.6526 P R E P A R E D B Y : ICF International 630 K Street, Suite 400 Sacramento, CA 95814 Contact: Doug Leslie 916.231.9560 April 2016 ICF International. 2016. Final Report Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area Bird Fatality Study, Monitoring Years 2005–2013. April. M107. (ICF 00904.08.) Sacramento, CA. Prepared for Alameda County Community Development Agency, Hayward, CA. Contents Tables..................................................................................................................................................... iii Figures .................................................................................................................................................... v Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................... viii Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1‐1 Study Area ........................................................................................................................................... 1‐2 Management Actions and Repowering ............................................................................................... 1‐6 Seasonal Shutdown of Turbines ................................................................................................... 1‐6 Removal of High Risk and Hazardous Turbines............................................................................. 1‐7 Repowering ................................................................................................................................... 1‐8 Chapter 2 Methods ................................................................................................................... 2‐1 Field Methods ...................................................................................................................................... 2‐1 Sample Selection ........................................................................................................................... 2‐1 Carcass Searches ........................................................................................................................... 2‐2 Detection Probability Studies ....................................................................................................... 2‐2 Avian Use Surveys ......................................................................................................................... 2‐4 Background Mortality Study ......................................................................................................... 2‐5 Analytical Methods .............................................................................................................................. 2‐5 Estimating Fatality Rates and Total Fatalities ............................................................................... 2‐5 Estimating Relative Abundance (Bird Use) ................................................................................. 2‐10 Evaluation of the 50% Fatality Reduction Goal .......................................................................... 2‐10 Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Management Actions and Repowering ................................ 2‐11 Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 2‐14 Chapter 3 Results ..................................................................................................................... 3‐1 Bird Use ............................................................................................................................................... 3‐1 Fatality Incidents ................................................................................................................................. 3‐8 Detection Probability Estimates ........................................................................................................ 3‐11 Fatality Rates ..................................................................................................................................... 3‐12 Factors Influencing Fatality Rates ............................................................................................... 3‐18 Estimates of APWRA‐Wide Total Fatalities ....................................................................................... 3‐23 Evaluation of the 50% Reduction ...................................................................................................... 3‐29 Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Management Actions and Repowering ...................................... 3‐30 Hazardous Turbine Removal ....................................................................................................... 3‐30 Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area Bird Fatality Study, April 2016 i Monitoring Years 2005–2013 Final Report ICF 00904.08 Seasonal Shutdown ..................................................................................................................... 3‐30 Repowering ................................................................................................................................. 3‐36 The Potential Influence of Predation as a Confounding Factor ........................................................ 3‐37 Chapter 4 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 4‐1 Variation in Fatality Rates ................................................................................................................... 4‐2 Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Management Measures and Other Actions ................................. 4‐3 Hazardous Turbine Removal ......................................................................................................... 4‐3 Seasonal Shutdown of Turbines ................................................................................................... 4‐3 Repowering ................................................................................................................................... 4‐4 The Influence of Predation .................................................................................................................. 4‐5 Evaluation of the 50% Reduction ........................................................................................................ 4‐6 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................... 4‐7 Chapter 5 Glossary ................................................................................................................... 5‐1 Chapter 6 References Cited ...................................................................................................... 6‐1 Appendix A Representative Photographs of Turbine Types in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area Appendix B Bird and Bat Mortality Monitoring Protocols Appendix C Estimating Detection Probability of Carcasses Deposited by Wind Turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, California Appendix D Calculation of Fatality Rates and Estimated Total Fatalities Appendix E BLOB Characteristics Appendix F Background Mortality Study Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area Bird Fatality Study, April 2016 ii Monitoring Years 2005–2013 Final Report ICF 00904.08 Tables Page 1‐1 Models, Sizes, and Capacities of Wind Turbines in the APWRA ................................................... 1‐4 1‐2 Timing, Duration, and Other Characteristics of the Seasonal Shutdown of Turbines in the APWRA, Monitoring Years 2005–2013 ................................................................................... 1‐7 1‐3 Turbine Removals (Megawatts) in the APWRA, Monitoring Years 2005–2013............................ 1‐8 2‐1 Search Effort and Average Search Interval (Days ±1 Standard Deviation) in the APWRA, Monitoring Years 2005–2013 ......................................................................................... 2‐1 2‐2 Sources of Estimated Fatality Rates Included in the APWRA‐Wide Estimate by BLOB, Monitoring Year, and Bird Group, Monitoring Years 2005–2013 ................................................. 2‐9 2‐3 Description of parameters used to evaluate variation in fatality rates of the four focal species in the APWRA, monitoring years 2005‐2013 ......................................................... 2‐13 3‐1 Total Number of Surveys per Month and Monitoring Year .......................................................... 3‐1 3‐2 Total Number of Survey Hours per Month and Monitoring Year ................................................. 3‐2 3‐3 Percentage of Surveys in Which Focal Species Were Detected ................................................... 3‐2 3‐4 Mean Number of Detections per Minute of Survey per Cubic Kilometer of Visible Airspace for Avian Species Recorded during Surveys in the APWRA, 2005–2013 Monitoring Yearsa ......................................................................................................................... 3‐3 3‐5 Annual